Preview only: Texas's own model is not built yet. The county groups, map, what-if scenarios and past-race numbers on this page are Texas's, used as stand-ins. The polls and results are Texas's.
The forecast
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Numbers as a table
Things to know
The race in two minutes
Read by Maren Holt, Pollitrack's anchor · Recorded October 24
Read the transcript
I'm Maren Holt, and this is your Pollitrack digest on the Senate race in Texas.
The seat is open. John Cornyn lost his primary, so on November 3 Texas picks a new senator. On the ballot, in the order Texas lists them: Republican Ken Paxton, the state's attorney general, and Democrat James Talarico, a state representative from the Austin area.
The polling average has Talarico ahead by 2.6 points across 18 recent polls. Pollitrack's forecast takes 1.5 points off that, because Texas polls have understated Republicans in recent races. That leaves Talarico ahead by 1.1, with a 59 percent chance of finishing first and Paxton at 41 percent.
A lead that size is well inside a normal polling miss. Either candidate could finish ahead.
Early voting runs through October 30. In the first three days, about 2.2 million Texans voted. That is 135 percent of the 2022 midterm at the same point, and 76 percent of the 2024 presidential pace.
A big early vote does not tell us who is ahead. It tells us interest is high on both sides.
On election night, Pollitrack reads five bellwether counties, each standing in for a part of the state: Fort Bend for the diverse big metros, Harris as the biggest source of votes, Collin for the suburbs and as Paxton's home county, Hidalgo for the border, and Lubbock for rural Texas.
Most polls close at 7 pm Central. As those counties report, the forecast stops leaning on polls and starts reading votes. Scroll down to explore each county, or switch to What-if mode and play out your own night. I'm Maren Holt. See you on election night.
The recording plays on the Pollitrack site. The transcript is above.
Early voting
How to read this: the line adds up early votes day by day, in person and by mail. The amber line is 2026; the gray lines are past years on the same day of early voting, so a 2026 line above them means more early votes than then. Refreshed every morning and afternoon from the Texas Secretary of State's daily early-voting rosters.Numbers as a table
Numbers as a table
Cumulative early votes, in person and by mail, against the same day in 2022 and 2024.
In the news
How to read this: the headlines free news sources carry about this race, newest first, with who published each. The counts are how many stories named each candidate in the last seven days. Pollitrack reads the headlines; it does not judge them and they do not change the forecast.
The newest headlines about this race, refreshed twice a day.
This week: 57 stories name Paxton, 92 name Talarico, 60 name both.
- CBS News political experts weigh in on Texas Senate race halfway through early voting
- Home stretch of tight U.S. Senate race between Paxton, Talarico will begin in Amarillo
- Talarico rallies Corpus Christi voters as Texas Senate race nears Election Day
- Talarico, Paxton trade blows while crisscrossing Texas in final days of campaign for US Senate seat
- Paxton, Talarico rally Central Texas supporters as early voting continues
- Ken Paxton makes stop in Georgetown as polls show tight Texas Senate race
Five county groups
How to read this: every county joins the group whose bellwether county it has moved most like since 2016. The color is the group's margin in the view you pick: where its bellwether lands if the polls are right, its 2024 Senate result, or, on election night, how far each county has shifted since 2024. Darker means a bigger lead: 15 points or more, 5 to 15, or under 5. Tap a group or a county to light up its group.
Every county joins the bellwether it has voted most like since 2016.
Pick a group to light up its counties.
500 possible election nights
How to read this: the forecast is replayed 500 times, each with a different random draw of its uncertainty. Each dot is five possible nights, stacked by the statewide margin in 1-point steps: blue dots are Talarico wins and red dots are Paxton wins. The more dots on one side of the tie line, the likelier that candidate wins.
The forecast replayed 500 times, with every county group free to miss.
Wins per 100 nights · each dot = 5 nights
The five bellwethers
How to read this: each row is one county, on a scale from a big Paxton lead (left) to a big Talarico lead (right). The amber mark is the tie line: if every part of Texas shifted as much as this county did, a result there would mean a statewide tie. A dot to the right of it is good news for Talarico, and to the left for Paxton; the colored bar shows how far each county is from the tie line, and toward whom. The gray ticks are the 2024 and 2018 results. The dot is where the polling average points until results post, then the real result. Drag a dot, tap anywhere on a row, or use the arrow keys to try your own numbers; the dot clicks onto the marks when you get close.
Drag a dot, or pick a scenario, to see who wins Texas.
Fine-tune the assumptions
County guides
Why each county was picked and what to watch.
Best overall predictor
Fort BendTie line: Talarico +16.1 · the county that has tracked Texas most closely
- 2024 Senate
- Allred +7.6
- 2024 President
- Harris +1.6
- 2018 Senate
- O'Rourke +12.1
- Compared with Texas
- 15–16 points more Democratic, every race since 2016
Why this county
No county in Texas has tracked the statewide result more closely. In every statewide race since 2016, Fort Bend has voted 15 to 16 points more Democratic than Texas as a whole. Subtract 15.5 from its margin and you'd never have missed the statewide result by more than 0.8 points. It's one of the most diverse counties in the country, with large Asian, Black, Hispanic and white populations, so shifts among different groups of voters tend to balance out. Its group includes Dallas, Bexar (San Antonio), Galveston and Jefferson (Beaumont), about 20% of the statewide vote.
What to look for
The tie line here is Talarico +16: a result above it favors Talarico, below it Paxton. Allred won it by 7.6 and lost Texas by 8.5; O'Rourke won it by 12.1 and lost by 2.6. A Talarico margin in the mid-teens means a close race; below 12, Paxton is probably ahead, and above 20, Talarico is probably ahead.
When results come in
Its early votes should post shortly after 7 pm. Fort Bend's final count has usually ended up about a point more Democratic than its first early-vote batch, so the early number is close to the final answer.
Signals so far
Dallas County, in the same group: .
Biggest vote source
HarrisTie line: Talarico +19.8 · one in seven Texas votes, slow to count
- 2024 Senate
- Allred +11.3
- 2024 President
- Harris +5.5
- 2018 Senate
- O'Rourke +16.7
- Compared with Texas
- 18–21 points more Democratic since 2016
Why this county
Harris County (Houston) casts one in seven Texas votes, and its gap with the state has been almost as steady as Fort Bend's. It's also where Democrats lost ground with Hispanic and Black voters in 2024: Biden won it by 13, Harris by 5.5. Its group includes Travis (Austin), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and the Coastal Bend, about 20% of the statewide vote.
What to look for
The tie line here is Talarico +20: a result above it favors Talarico, below it Paxton. About turnout: Harris leans Democratic, so turnout that trails Dallas more likely means Houston's Democratic voters haven't voted yet than that Republican turnout is low. For Republican turnout, Montgomery County, the big Republican suburb north of Houston, is the better test.
When results come in
Early and mail ballots, most of the county's vote, post shortly after 7 pm. Election Day sites report slowly all night: in 2024 the count finished just after 8 am Wednesday, and in 2022 it ran to Thursday. At 9:10 pm in 2024, Harris had 79% of its final vote posted with only 1 of 701 Election Day sites in. This year it has 589 Election Day sites, down from 782 in 2022. Its final count has usually come in about a point more Democratic than its early vote.
Signals so far
Montgomery County: . Texas overall: . A University of Houston and Rice poll of Harris County this month had Talarico ahead by 22, compared with Allred's 11.3 in 2024. That's above the tie line, but polls of a single county are less precise.
Paxton's home county
CollinTie line: Talarico +3.2 · Paxton's home county, a close suburb
- 2024 Senate
- Cruz +5.2
- 2024 President
- Trump +11.1
- 2018 Senate
- Cruz +6.1
- Compared with Texas
- from 7.6 points more Republican (2016) to 3.2 more Democratic (2024)
Why this county
Collin County (Plano, McKinney) is Paxton's home, and it leads the largest group in the model: 17 suburban and outer-suburban counties including Tarrant, Denton, Williamson, Montgomery and Hays, about 29% of the statewide vote and growing. This is where many of the voters who backed Cornyn over Paxton in the Republican runoff live. Compared with the state, Collin has moved about 11 points toward Democrats since 2016.
What to look for
The tie line here is Talarico +3: a result above it favors Talarico, below it Paxton. If Collin shifts far more than nearby Denton or Tarrant, that's about Paxton himself: how he runs at home. In that case, move the "Paxton's home-county effect" setting, or switch this row to Denton. Williamson's tie line is Talarico +10, or about +12 once you allow for Talarico's home-county effect there, so a single-digit Talarico margin there still points to a Paxton lead.
When results come in
Collin's early-vote report was ready by 6:45 pm in 2024 and posts at 7. Its final count has stayed within about a point and a half of its early vote, which makes Collin the first number of the night you can trust.
Signals so far
Democrats cast 48% of the votes in Collin's two party primaries in March, up from 26% in 2024. Paxton and Cornyn tied in Collin in the primary, so there's no sign of a home-county boost. Talarico drew about 4,000 people to a Plano rally in June.
Hispanic border test
HidalgoTie line: Talarico +15.1 · shows whether Hispanic voters' 2024 shift held
- 2024 Senate
- Allred +6.6
- 2024 President
- Trump +2.9
- 2018 Senate
- O'Rourke +38.2
- 2016 President
- Clinton +40.2
Why this county
Hidalgo County (McAllen) shows whether 2024's big move of Hispanic voters toward Republicans has lasted. It went from Clinton winning by 40 to Trump winning by 3 in eight years. Its group (El Paso, Cameron, Webb, Starr and 18 other South and West Texas counties) casts only 6.5% of the statewide vote, but it moves much more than the state does: Hidalgo shifted 43 points toward Republicans from 2016 to 2024, while Texas shifted under 5. On its own it's the worst predictor of the statewide result, so the model applies it only to its own group.
What to look for
If every part of Texas shifted the same amount, the tie line here would be Talarico +15: a result above it favors Talarico, below it Paxton. Polls give Talarico an 18- to 33-point lead among Hispanic voters. A result near 2018 levels (30 or more) means Hispanic voters have shifted back toward Democrats, and Talarico is likely ahead even with smaller gains in the suburbs. A result close to 2024's Senate result (Allred +7) means the shift has held, and Paxton is likely ahead unless Talarico makes unusually big gains in the suburbs and rural Texas.
When results come in
Possibly late. In the March primary, its first results came about two hours after polls closed because of long lines. Its final count has come in about 2 points more Republican than its early vote, and the model expects that again.
Signals so far
In the March primaries, 67,000 Democratic ballots were cast to 19,000 Republican ones, though local Democratic races drive some of that. A Cook Political Report and Univision poll of Rio Grande Valley voters found 53% planning to vote Democratic for Congress and 39% Republican, a strong showing but well short of Hidalgo's 2018 margins.
Rural Texas test
LubbockTie line: Paxton +28.5 · stands in for a quarter of the statewide vote
- 2024 Senate
- Cruz +37.0
- 2024 President
- Trump +39.5
- 2018 Senate
- Cruz +29.2
- Compared with Texas
- 26–29 points more Republican since 2016
Why this county
197 rural and small-city counties cast a quarter of the Texas vote, and Cruz won them by 50 in 2024. Every point either candidate gains there is worth a quarter point statewide. Of the larger counties in this group, Lubbock has moved most like the group as a whole: as the stand-in, it would have missed by 0.45 points on average, compared with 0.9 for Waco and 1.2 for Tyler. It's also the place to test Talarico's faith-centered pitch to evangelical voters.
What to look for
The tie line here is Paxton +28.5: a wider Paxton margin favors Paxton, a narrower one Talarico. Cruz won it by 29.2 against O'Rourke in 2018. A Paxton margin of 35 or more means rural Texas is voting much as it did in 2024, and Paxton is likely ahead unless Talarico makes much bigger gains everywhere else. Leaving this group out hurts the forecast more than leaving out any other, so wait for Lubbock before trusting a call.
When results come in
In 2024 Lubbock reported every precinct while it had posted only early votes, so its precinct count can mislead. The live data marks counties that have posted only early votes, and the forecast treats them that way. Lubbock's final count has come in 0.7 to 2.2 points less Republican than its first early-vote batch, because its Republicans tend to vote early.
Signals so far
Smith County (Tyler): . Some rural counties catch up late in early voting. Trump is holding a Lubbock rally for Paxton. Statewide polls show Paxton winning rural Texas by 21 to 36, compared with Cruz's 45 in the 2024 exit poll.
Timeline
When results usually arrive, Central time.
Early voting. Watch each group's turnout in the early voting tracker above; it refreshes every morning. More early voters this year have a history of voting in Democratic primaries. That partly reflects March's large Democratic primary, and Republicans say they're likelier to wait for Election Day.
Polls close everywhere except El Paso and Hudspeth counties. Within about 15 minutes most large counties post early in-person and mail ballots: in past years Collin's file was ready by 6:45, Tarrant posted at 7:02 and Bexar at 7:05. This batch is most of each county's vote. In Live data mode the page reads these automatically and knows only early votes are in. Dallas's first batch in 2024 held back about a tenth of its early in-person votes until 9:22 pm.
El Paso closes and posts its early vote; every Texas poll is now closed. Hidalgo's first batch may show up around now. In the March primary it came about two hours after polls closed. Lubbock's early vote should be in.
Election Day precincts. The forecast's early-vote adjustment for each county shrinks as its Election Day sites report. In 2024 Dallas had only 3% of Election Day votes counted at 10:14 pm. The AP called the 2024 Senate race at 10:39 pm; a close race this year will take longer.
The big counties outside Houston finish. In 2024 Tarrant was 98.5% done by 12:42 am, Bexar by 1:10 am and Dallas by about 2:11 am.
Harris finishes. In 2024 the count ended just after 8 am; in 2022 it ran to Thursday afternoon. Until it finishes, the forecast's likely range includes Harris's uncounted Election Day votes. If the race is within a point when you go to bed, that range is the honest answer.
Times are Central time. Counties post early votes first, then Election Day results. The method in six steps, then its track record on past races.
- All 254 counties are grouped by how they have moved relative to the statewide margin across seven statewide races (2016–2024). Each group is tied to one bellwether county.
- When a bellwether reports, its change from its 2024 Senate margin (Allred vs. Cruz) is applied to every county in its group, and each group is weighted by its share of the vote.
- Early-vote readings are moved toward the expected final count. That uses each county's 2022–2024 early-versus-final record plus the 2026 Election Day tilt, scaled by how much is still uncounted. Counties not yet in borrow the average change of those that are, pulled slightly toward the polls.
- Uncertainty combines the minimum uncertainty, how much of each county is still uncounted, and which counties haven't reported. The win chance and the 500 simulated nights both come from that.
- Until results post, the forecast is the polling average minus an allowance for how Texas polls have leaned (1.5 points off Talarico unless you change it), with a 5-point spread, the typical size of a final Texas poll-average miss since 2018. Where early votes are coming from trims nothing off it by default: each point the early electorate leans more Democratic than at the same point in 2024, measured by county, counts for the weight you set under "Fine-tune the assumptions", and in 2022 and 2024, measured against the election two years earlier, that lean did not predict how the polls missed. The five counties only start to matter on election night.
- Scheduled jobs in the cloud pull the Texas Secretary of State's daily early-voting rosters and a Wikipedia poll table every morning and afternoon. On election night they check the Texas Secretary of State's results every few minutes. They write to this page's data store, which updates open copies of the page without a reload.
Track record: past races predicted from these five counties alone
| Race predicted | Baseline race | Actual | Model | Miss |
|---|
A half-point miss flatters the model. The five counties were chosen using these same races, five races is a small sample, and no past race had a candidate like Paxton. If a tie falls inside the likely range, treat the race as a toss-up.
What's different in 2026
The model is built on 2016–2024. Here is what could make this race break from those patterns, and how the model handles each.
| Factor | What it could do | How the model handles it |
|---|---|---|
| Paxton is the nominee, not Cruz or Cornyn | Impeached by the Texas House in 2023 and acquitted by the Senate. His divorce has been pending since July 2025. Underwater with likely voters (34/56 in Marist), and in leaked fundraiser audio this month he said he has little control over his own campaign. He beat Cornyn 64–36 in the runoff; Fox finds about 20% of Cornyn's primary voters now back Talarico. Talarico polls 4 to 7 points better than Democrats do when voters are asked which party they prefer for Congress, which suggests voters are penalizing Paxton himself. | The suburban bellwether, Collin County, measures this directly, and its shift is applied to 29% of the statewide vote. In March, Paxton and Cornyn tied in Collin (41–40), the same as statewide, so there's no sign of a home-county boost; that setting starts at zero. |
| Talarico's home turf | He grew up in Round Rock and represented Williamson County's House District 52 (Round Rock, Taylor, Hutto) from 2019 to 2023. | If you pick Williamson for the suburbs row, his home-county effect (2 points ahead unless you change it) is taken out before Williamson's shift is applied to the other suburbs. |
| Hispanic voters' shift to Republicans: will it last? | The 2024 exit poll had Cruz +3 among Latino voters. 2026 polls range from Talarico +9 (Siena) to +33 (Cook/Univision). Hidalgo cast 67,000 Democratic primary ballots in March to 19,000 Republican. New congressional lines will bring heavy turnout spending to South Texas. | The border group follows its own bellwether, Hidalgo County, while Harris and Fort Bend capture Hispanic voters in the cities. If Hidalgo hasn't reported yet, the forecast treats that group as the most uncertain for its size. |
| A midterm with Trump in the White House | Trump is about 10 points underwater with likely voters. 75% of Democrats vs 58% of Republicans say they're certain to vote (Texas Politics Project). Democrats outvoted Republicans in the March primary, 2.3 million to 2.16 million. Rehmet won a Trump +17 state senate seat in Tarrant with 57%. One counter-signal: a Republican won the May SD-4 special by 50 in a Trump +34 seat, a swing to the GOP. | Pick a turnout pattern under "Fine-tune the assumptions." Beyond that, turnout shows up in each county's result: where Democrats turn out, Talarico's margin is bigger. |
| Rural Texas and the faith pitch | The 2024 exit poll had Cruz +45 in rural and small-town Texas. Polls now put Paxton at +21 to +36 there. Trump is holding rallies for Paxton in Waco and Lubbock. | Lubbock's shift is applied to all 197 rural and small-city counties. If Trump's Lubbock rally lifts Republican turnout there more than elsewhere, Lubbock will make Talarico look slightly weaker in rural Texas than he is. Midland and McLennan (Waco) are available as alternates. |
| Early votes versus Election Day votes | Past years point both ways. In 2022, Election Day votes were more Republican than early votes in most big counties. In 2024's Senate race they were more Democratic in Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Collin, Denton and Fort Bend, because many Election Day Trump voters also voted for Allred. Border counties have always ended up more Republican than their early vote. This year more early voters have a Democratic primary history, and Republicans say they're likelier to wait for Election Day (40% vs. 25% of Democrats). | Each county gets its own expected change from early votes to the final count, based on 2022 and 2024 election-night records, plus an extra 1.5 points toward Paxton for this year that you can change. Counties with only early votes counted also get wider uncertainty. |
| Texas polls have leaned toward Democrats | Final poll averages understated the Republican by about 4.5 points in the 2020 presidential race, 4 in the 2020 Senate race, 0.5 in the 2022 governor's race and 4 in the 2024 Senate race. 2018 went the other way: O'Rourke ran 4 points ahead of his final average in a midterm that favored Democrats, as this one may. | Until results post, the forecast takes 1.5 points off Talarico the polling average and uses a 5-point spread, the typical size of those misses. Where early votes come from, compared with this point in 2024, takes nothing off the allowance by default (adjustable): in 2022 and 2024, measured against the election two years earlier, that lean did not predict how the polls missed. Turnout level alone doesn't settle it either: 2018's record midterm turnout broke toward Democrats, 2020's and 2024's toward Republicans. On election night the real county results replace the polls. |
| Voters splitting their ballots | Abbott runs about 5 points ahead of Paxton in the median poll (gaps range from 2 to 7). The gap is largest in DFW, rural Texas and San Antonio. | The starting point is the 2024 Senate race, where Allred ran 5 points ahead of Harris, so each county's shift is measured against a race that already had voters splitting their ballots. In What-if mode, enter Senate margins, not governor's race margins. |
| A Libertarian on the ballot | Ted Brown took 2.4% in 2024 and polls between 1% and 3%. | Margins are measured as a share of all votes cast, so the third-party share needs no separate adjustment. |
- County returns 2016–2024: Texas Secretary of State canvass, via the Wikipedia county tables for each race (statewide totals checked against official results)
- County boundaries: us-atlas (Census cartographic boundaries)
- Early-vote turnout: TexPolls turnout tracker (built from the Texas Secretary of State's rosters)
- Polling average: RealClearPolling, Talarico vs. Paxton
- Past Texas poll averages vs. results: RCP 2018 Senate, RCP 2020 President, 270toWin 2020 Senate, RCP 2022 Governor, RCP 2024 Senate
- Marist Poll, Texas, October 2026
- Houston Public Media: UH Hobby School poll
- Herald-Zeitung: May 26 runoff results
- Texas Monthly: Rehmet wins SD-9
- Fox 7: Hinojosa–Abbott poll
- KERA: Collin County as a battleground
- The Free Press: Libertarian Ted Brown
- Fox 7: What the early-vote surge means
- Siena/ReconMR crosstabs, Oct 5–8
- UT/Texas Politics Project poll, Sep 25–Oct 5
- Fox News poll, Sep 24–28
- Cook/Univision Texas Hispanic voter poll
- TPR: Harris County poll
- ABC News: 2024 Texas Senate exit poll
- Murphy Monitor: Collin primary turnout
- KRGV: Hidalgo primary turnout
- Texas Tribune: SD-4 special election
- James Talarico (HD-52 service)
- Newsweek: Paxton leaked audio
- Early-vote-versus-final splits: official county canvass reports by vote type (Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Collin, Denton, Fort Bend, Hidalgo, Cameron, Webb, El Paso), 2022 and 2024; Williamson from OpenElections precinct files
- TheoElections early-vote tracker (unofficial; turnout by day and early voters' primary history)
- KPRC: Harris County through day 3
- ABC13: Harris County 2024 count timing
- PolitiFact: Bexar 2022 reporting times
- ValleyCentral: Hidalgo election-night delays
- KPRC: AP's 2024 Senate call
- African-American News & Issues: Harris 2026 vote centers
- In the news: headlines and links from Google News, GDELT and the state's own news outlets, read twice a day. Pollitrack never fetches or stores the articles themselves.