About this page: whichever party wins 218 of the 435 seats holds the House. The page takes the generic congressional ballot, corrects it for how that average has leaned in past midterms, and runs 10,000 elections across every district: each district's 2024 presidential margin, plus the national swing, plus a term for its incumbent, plus its own noise. On election night the 5 states whose county results this site reads take over for the districts they hold. Margins are in percentage points: "D +3" means the Democrat leads by 3.
435 seats · Nov 3
Each party's chance at 218 seats.
House control
How to read this: the ring and the big number are the favored party's chance of winning 218 or more seats in 10,000 simulated elections; the bar splits the runs between the two parties. The middle outcome is the median seat count, and the likely range holds 85% of the runs.
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Running 10,000 elections…
Middle outcome–
Likely range–
Updates 8:15 am and 2:15 pm Central.
D seats in 10,000 simulated elections
How to read this: each bar is a seat count: how often the House ends up with that many Democratic seats (Republicans hold the rest). Taller means it came up more often. Red bars are a Republican majority, blue a Democratic one, deeper blue inside the likely range. The dashed line is 218, the majority. Hover a bar for its share of the runs.
D majorityR majority
Now
The 435 seats
How to read this: every dot is a district, in order from the one that voted most Democratic for president in 2024 (left) to the most Republican (right). The color is today's forecast: blue or red when the model is at least leaning, deeper the surer it is, gray for a toss-up. The amber line is the 218th seat from either end: a party with every district on its side of the line has a majority. Ringed dots are the districts within reach in the 5 states the page reads live on election night. Hover or tap a dot for its numbers; click it to find it in the table.
Most Democratic in 2024 on the left, most Republican on the right, colored by today's forecast.
← Most DemocraticD in 2024Most Republican in 2024R →
Now
Districts within reach
How to read this: every district the model gives each party at least a 15% chance. "2024" is Harris's margin there minus Trump's. "Model" is the forecast margin and the favorite's chance; the bar runs from the middle (a tie) toward the leader, and a full half is a 15-point lead. "Forecasters" is the middle of the forecasters' ratings (Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato and the rest); a flag marks a district where the model and the ratings sit a band apart. "Live" marks districts in the states whose county results this page reads on election night.
The seats that decide it.
Election night
The night
How to read this: each card is one of the 5 states whose county results this site already reads for its Senate race, in the order their first polls close (Eastern time). The line fills as their House districts' counties report. Their swing since 2024, pulled a little toward the polls, stands in for the districts with nothing in yet, so the forecast moves before the West counts. The model still carries the rest of the country until the certified results.
The national vote, how far it can miss, and how a national vote becomes seats.
The generic ballot, each aggregator's latest average
How to read this: each dot is one aggregator's average of the generic congressional ballot ("which party's candidate for Congress would you vote for?"), Democrats minus Republicans. The black tick is the mean of the aggregators, the number the model starts from; the dashed amber tick is that mean after the allowance for how the generic ballot has leaned in past midterms.
How far the final generic ballot missed the House vote
How to read this: each bar is one past election: how far the final generic ballot average sat from the national House vote. Bars to the right leaned toward Democrats (the polls overstated them), to the left toward Republicans. The allowance the model takes off is set from this record.
From national vote to seats
How to read this: left to right is the national House vote, Democrats minus Republicans. The line is how many seats Democrats would expect to win at that vote, every district moving with it, each with its incumbent, its own noise and the forecasters' ratings as the model weighs them. The dashed amber line is 218: where the curve crosses it is the national vote at which control changes hands. The dot is today's forecast; slide the shared polling miss to move it, and the seat count and chance below follow, from 10,000 fresh simulated elections.
Republicans do better than the forecastDemocrats do better
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How it works
What-ifs
How to read this: each card reruns the 10,000 elections under one story. "Polls are right" takes the generic ballot at face value; the year cards repeat that midterm's polling miss; "Incumbents dig in" doubles the incumbency term; "Maps work as drawn" drops incumbency and the districts' own noise, so every district moves with the nation. Click a card to see it across the page; click it again to go back.
The same districts under six different stories about the polls and the incumbents.
Reference
Timeline and sources
When the House results arrive, and where every number comes from.
Until Nov 3
The generic ballot and the ratings. The forecast follows the aggregators' generic ballot averages and refreshes every morning and afternoon; the forecasters' ratings sit beside the model in the districts table.
Nov 3 · 7:00 pm
Georgia closes. Its county results are the first House votes the page reads.
7:30 pm
North Carolina and Ohio close. Two states with several of the closest districts on the map.
8:00 pm
Texas closes (7:00 pm Central). Most large Texas counties post their early votes within minutes, which is most of their vote.
9:00 pm
Iowa closes (8:00 pm Central). By now the five live states' swing carries the districts with nothing in yet.
11:00 pm and after
The West counts for days. California, Arizona and the mail-heavy states decide the final count; the page's model stands in for them until the certified results.
Districts on the 2026 lines, their members and their 2024 and 2020 presidential margins: The Downballot's calculations (used as rounded margins, with thanks)
Past generic ballot averages against the national House vote: RealClearPolitics's final averages and the Clerk of the House's statistics, gathered in the model's record
Election night: the county results the Senate pages already read from the Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Iowa election offices