Preview only: North Carolina's own model is not built yet. The county groups, map, what-if scenarios and past-race numbers on this page are Texas's, used as stand-ins. The polls and results are North Carolina's.
The forecast
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Numbers as a table
Things to know
The race in two minutes
Read by Maren Holt, Pollitrack's anchor · Recorded October 24
Read the transcript
I'm Maren Holt, and this is your Pollitrack digest on the Senate race in North Carolina.
The seat is open. Thom Tillis is retiring, so on November 3 North Carolina picks a new senator. On the ballot, in the order North Carolina lists them: Democrat Roy Cooper, the state's former two-term governor, and Republican Michael Whatley, the former chair of the Republican National Committee.
The polling average has Cooper ahead by 11 points across eight recent polls. Pollitrack's forecast takes 1.5 points off that, because North Carolina polls have understated Republicans in several recent races. That leaves Cooper ahead by 9.5, with a 97 percent chance of finishing first and Whatley at 3 percent.
That is a clear lead, but not a certainty. Races with odds like these do sometimes go the other way.
Early voting runs through October 31. In the first nine days, about 1.5 million North Carolinians voted. That is 136 percent of the 2022 midterm at the same point, and 56 percent of the 2024 presidential pace.
A big early vote does not tell us who is ahead. It tells us interest is high on both sides.
On election night, Pollitrack reads five bellwether counties, each standing in for a part of the state: Durham for the big cities, Pitt for the mid-size cities, Chatham for the fast-growing suburbs, Carteret on the coast, the county that has tracked the state most closely, and Nash for rural and small-town North Carolina.
Polls close at 7:30 pm Eastern. As those counties report, the forecast stops leaning on polls and starts reading votes. Scroll down to explore each county, or switch to What-if mode and play out your own night. I'm Maren Holt. See you on election night.
The recording plays on the Pollitrack site. The transcript is above.
Early voting
How to read this: the line adds up early votes day by day, in person and by mail. The amber line is 2026; the gray lines are past years on the same day of early voting, so a 2026 line above them means more early votes than then. Refreshed every morning and afternoon from the North Carolina State Board of Elections' early-vote files.Numbers as a table
Numbers as a table
Cumulative early votes, in person and by mail, against the same day in 2022 and 2024.
In the news
How to read this: the headlines free news sources carry about this race, newest first, with who published each. The counts are how many stories named each candidate in the last seven days. Pollitrack reads the headlines; it does not judge them and they do not change the forecast.
The newest headlines about this race, refreshed twice a day.
This week: 36 stories name Cooper, 32 name Whatley, 27 name both.
- Whatley stops in Wilmington, Cooper makes final push before early voting ends
- Roy Cooper stops in Greensboro with one week of early voting left
- U.S. Senate Candidate Michael Whatley (R-NC) Campaigns in Wilmington, NC
- Photo Gallery: Roy Cooper Holds “Get Out The Vote” Concert at New Cat’s Cradle Venue
- North Carolina candidate for U.S. Senate Roy Cooper makes campaign stop in Greensboro
- U.S. Senate Candidate Michael Whatley (R-NC) Holds Press Conference in Wilmington, NC
Five county groups
How to read this: every county joins the group whose bellwether county it has moved most like since 2016. The color is the group's margin in the view you pick: where its bellwether lands if the polls are right, its 2024 President result, or, on election night, how far each county has shifted since 2024. Darker means a bigger lead: 15 points or more, 5 to 15, or under 5. Tap a group or a county to light up its group.
Every county joins the bellwether it has voted most like since 2016.
Pick a group to light up its counties.
500 possible election nights
How to read this: the forecast is replayed 500 times, each with a different random draw of its uncertainty. Each dot is five possible nights, stacked by the statewide margin in 1-point steps: blue dots are Cooper wins and red dots are Whatley wins. The more dots on one side of the tie line, the likelier that candidate wins.
The forecast replayed 500 times, with every county group free to miss.
Wins per 100 nights · each dot = 5 nights
The five bellwethers
How to read this: each row is one county, on a scale from a big Whatley lead (left) to a big Cooper lead (right). The amber mark is the tie line: if every part of North Carolina shifted as much as this county did, a result there would mean a statewide tie. A dot to the right of it is good news for Cooper, and to the left for Whatley; the colored bar shows how far each county is from the tie line, and toward whom. The gray ticks are the 2024 and 2022 results. The dot is where the polling average points until results post, then the real result. Drag a dot, tap anywhere on a row, or use the arrow keys to try your own numbers; the dot clicks onto the marks when you get close.
Drag a dot, or pick a scenario, to see who wins North Carolina.
Fine-tune the assumptions
County guides
Why each county was picked and what to watch.
Big-city test
DurhamTie line: Cooper +64.9 · the cities' turnout test, and one of the steadiest early counts in the state
- 2024 President
- Harris +61.7
- 2022 Senate
- Beasley +63.6
- 2020 Governor
- Cooper +65.2
- Compared with North Carolina
- 57–67 points more Democratic, every statewide race since 2016
Why this county
Durham, Mecklenburg (Charlotte) and Orange (Chapel Hill) are the state's three most Democratic large counties, and together they cast 14.8% of the statewide vote, about one in seven ballots. Almost nobody here is up for grabs, so this group measures whether Democrats turn out, not whether voters are changing sides. Durham is the model's pick for the group (the five bellwethers were chosen together as the set that best fit past statewide results), and its first count is among the most predictable in the state: its final count has ended up between 1.6 and 4.8 points more Republican than its first batch of early and mail ballots. Mecklenburg, three times Durham's size, is available as a stand-in (tie line Cooper +35.9).
What to look for
The tie line here is Cooper +65: a result above it favors Cooper, below it Whatley. Harris won it by 61.7 and lost North Carolina by 3.2; Cooper won it by 65.2 in 2020 and carried the state by 4.5; Stein won it by 71.4 and the state by 14.8. A margin in the low 70s fits a comfortable Cooper win; one near Harris's 61.7 looks like her 3.2-point statewide loss. Watch Mecklenburg's turnout too: in 2024 it was a little over 69%, against 73% statewide, and only 11 counties were lower.
When results come in
Mail ballots post first after polls close at 7:30 pm, then early in-person votes, usually 30 to 60 minutes later. Together they were 86% of Durham's final vote in 2024 and 69% in 2022. The final count came in 2.2 points more Republican than that first batch in 2024, 4.8 in the 2022 Senate race and 1.6 in the 2024 governor's race. The model expects about 3 points again, plus this year's Election Day allowance. On election night in 2024, the State Board's site was slow to publish some of Mecklenburg's and Wake's uploads.
Signals so far
Mecklenburg (Charlotte), in the same group: . North Carolina overall: . 2024 was a presidential year, so 2022, the last midterm, is the fairer comparison. Registered Republicans cast 5.7% of Durham's early ballots through October 21, down from 9.4% at the same point in 2024.
Mid-size cities test
PittTie line: Cooper +9.2 · Greenville, where Trump rallied for Whatley
- 2024 President
- Harris +6.0
- 2022 Senate
- Beasley +2.8
- 2020 Governor
- Cooper +13.5
- Compared with North Carolina
- 6–11 points more Democratic since 2016
Why this county
Pitt County (Greenville, home of East Carolina University) leads a group of five mid-size, racially diverse counties: Guilford (Greensboro), Cumberland (Fayetteville and Fort Bragg), Alamance (Burlington) and Hoke, 11.0% of the statewide vote. Democrats here depend on Black voters and college students showing up, and in midterms they often don't: in 2024, Pitt, Cumberland and Hoke were among the 11 counties with lower turnout than Mecklenburg. In the 2022 Senate race, Pitt ran only 6 points more Democratic than the state, its weakest showing since 2016. The "Like 2022" turnout pattern under "Fine-tune the assumptions" shrinks this group's share for that reason.
What to look for
The tie line here is Cooper +9: a result above it favors Cooper, below it Whatley. Beasley won it by 2.8 in 2022 and lost the state by 3.2; Cooper won it by 13.5 in 2020; Stein won it by 22.9 in 2024. A Cooper margin in the high teens means higher turnout among Black and younger voters than in a usual midterm. A margin near Beasley's 2022 number means usual midterm turnout, and points to a Whatley lead. Guilford, the group's biggest county, is the stand-in to try if Pitt is slow: its tie line is Cooper +25.0.
When results come in
Pitt's first batch has been the hardest of the five to read. In 2022 its final count came in 10.5 points more Republican than its first early and mail batch; in 2024 only 0.5 more, and in the 2024 governor's race 0.5 more Democratic. The model uses the average, about 3.5 points, plus this year's Election Day allowance, and gives Pitt wider uncertainty until its Election Day precincts are in. Early and mail ballots were 79% of its 2024 vote and 59% of its 2022 vote.
Signals so far
Guilford (Greensboro): . Registered Republicans cast 18.9% of Pitt's early ballots through October 21, compared with 29.7% at this point in 2024. Trump held a rally for Whatley at the Pitt-Greenville Airport on October 20, which could lift Republican turnout here more than in the rest of the group. East Carolina University's poll (September 30 to October 3) had Cooper ahead by 7 statewide, the closest of the recent polls.
Growing suburbs test
ChathamTie line: Cooper +15.7 · stands in for Raleigh, Asheville and a quarter of the vote
- 2024 President
- Harris +12.4
- 2022 Senate
- Beasley +15.8
- 2020 Governor
- Cooper +16.9
- Compared with North Carolina
- 11–19 points more Democratic since 2016
Why this county
Chatham County (Pittsboro, Siler City) sits between Raleigh and Chapel Hill and is one of the fastest-growing counties in the state: its vote grew 31% from 2016 to 2024, against 20% statewide. It leads a group of nine growing metro and suburban counties, 25.5% of the statewide vote: Wake (Raleigh), Forsyth (Winston-Salem), Buncombe (Asheville), New Hanover (Wilmington), Cabarrus, Henderson, Watauga and Transylvania. These are the newer, college-educated voters who moved toward Democrats after 2016. Compared with the state, Chatham has moved from about 13 points more Democratic in 2016 to 15.6 in 2024, and 19.0 in the 2022 Senate race.
What to look for
The tie line here is Cooper +16: a result above it favors Cooper, below it Whatley. Beasley won it by 15.8 in 2022, a stronger showing against the state than Harris's 12.4; Cooper won it by 16.9 in 2020; Stein by 29.9 in 2024. A margin in the mid-20s means the suburbs lean toward Cooper as they did for Stein; below 16, they lean toward Whatley. Buncombe (tie line Cooper +27.9) and New Hanover (Cooper +3.8, the closest of the stand-ins to a tie) are available as alternates.
When results come in
Early and mail ballots were 88% of Chatham's 2024 vote, the highest share of the five bellwethers, so most of it posts within an hour or so of 7:30 pm. But its early vote has run well ahead of its Election Day vote for Democrats: the final count came in 13.2 points more Republican than the first batch in 2022, 3.8 in 2024 and 2.6 in the 2024 governor's race. The model expects about 6.5 points plus this year's allowance, so an early Cooper +25 is closer to Cooper +18 at the end.
Signals so far
Wake (Raleigh): . Buncombe (Asheville), two years after Hurricane Helene: , the smallest drop from 2024 among the 21 counties that cast more than 60,000 early and mail ballots that year. Registered Republicans cast 13.5% of Chatham's early ballots through October 21, compared with 22.4% at this point in 2024. Vice President Vance campaigned in Hendersonville, in this group, on October 19.
Best overall predictor
CarteretTie line: Whatley +39.8 · has tracked the state within 2 points in eight of nine races
- 2024 President
- Trump +43.0
- 2022 Senate
- Budd +43.1
- 2020 Governor
- Forest +36.2
- Compared with North Carolina
- 38–41 points more Republican every race since 2016, except the 2024 governor's race (33)
Why this county
No county has tracked the statewide result more closely. Add 39.5 to Carteret's margin and you'd have been within 1.7 points of the statewide result in eight of the nine statewide races since 2016. Carteret (Morehead City, Beaufort and the Crystal Coast) leads the largest group in the model: 33 Republican exurban, coastal and mountain counties, including Union, Johnston, Gaston, Iredell, Brunswick, Onslow and Moore, 29% of the statewide vote. Trump won the group by 35.5 in 2024, so this is the base of Whatley's vote. The one miss was 2024's governor's race, when many Republicans here split their tickets against Mark Robinson and Carteret came in only 33 points more Republican than the state.
What to look for
The tie line here is Whatley +40: a wider Whatley margin favors Whatley, a narrower one Cooper. Trump won it by 43.0 and Budd by 43.1, both while carrying the state by about 3; Forest won it by 36.2 while losing to Cooper by 4.5; Robinson won it by 18.5. If Cooper wins by 10 statewide, Carteret should come in near Whatley +30. A Whatley margin in the mid-40s, like Trump's and Budd's, points to a Whatley lead; the low 30s or below means some Republican voters are splitting their tickets or not voting, and points to a Cooper lead.
When results come in
Early and mail ballots were 82% of Carteret's 2024 vote but only 55% of its 2022 vote, so in a midterm much of it comes in from Election Day precincts later in the evening. Its final count came in 10.4 points more Republican than its first batch in 2022, 0.6 more in 2024, and 1.1 less Republican in the 2024 governor's race. The model expects about 3 points plus this year's allowance, and treats the early number as only part of the answer until precincts report.
Signals so far
Brunswick, in the same group: . Registered Republicans cast 43.8% of Carteret's early ballots through October 21, down from 51.6% at this point in 2024; Democrats cast 21.0%, up from 16.4%. New congressional lines drawn in October 2025 moved Carteret into the 1st District, where Democratic Rep. Don Davis faces Republican Laurie Buckhout in a close rematch, so both parties are working to turn out voters here.
Rural swing test
NashTie line: Cooper +1.5 · Cooper's home county, close to a tie
- 2024 President
- Trump +1.8
- 2022 Senate
- Budd +6.7
- 2020 Governor
- Cooper +7.0
- Compared with North Carolina
- from 3.5 points more Republican (2022) to 4.9 more Democratic (2016)
Why this county
Nash County (Rocky Mount, Nashville) stands in for 50 rural and small-town counties, 19.6% of the statewide vote: Black-majority counties in the northeast such as Halifax, Bertie and Edgecombe, Robeson, eastern farm counties such as Wayne, Wilson and Duplin, and mountain counties hit by Hurricane Helene such as Haywood, Jackson and Rutherford. Trump won the group by 21.6 in 2024. Nash itself is closely divided and has moved most like the group. It is also Cooper's home: he was born in Nashville, worked summers on his family's farm in Nash and practiced law there. His home edge has been small, though: in 2020 Nash ran 2.5 points more Democratic than the state for Cooper and 1.5 for Biden.
What to look for
The tie line here is Cooper +1.5: a result above it favors Cooper, below it Whatley. Cooper won it by 7.0 in 2020 and 4.5 in 2016; Beasley lost it by 6.7 in 2022; Stein won it by 13.9. A Cooper margin of 8 or more means rural North Carolina is moving toward Cooper by more than in 2020; a Whatley margin near Beasley's 6.7 looks like 2022. Because it's Cooper's home county, check Wilson (tie line Cooper +3.6) or Wayne (Whatley +13.2) before reading too much into Nash alone. There is no separate home-county setting for this race.
When results come in
In presidential years Nash's first batch has been close to its final answer: in 2024 the final count was 0.2 points more Democratic than the early and mail votes. In the 2022 midterm it was 9.2 points more Republican, because Election Day voters there leaned Republican and cast 39% of the vote. The model expects about 3 points plus this year's allowance until Nash's precincts report.
Signals so far
Wayne (Goldsboro): . Registered Republicans cast 23.0% of Nash's early ballots through October 21, compared with 34.3% at this point in 2024; Democrats cast 50.6%, up from 41.7%. In the mountain counties of this group, Hurricane Helene recovery is a campaign issue: Cooper says Whatley, who sits on Trump's FEMA Review Council, hasn't won more aid for the region, and Whatley says Cooper failed the recovery as governor.
Timeline
When results usually arrive, Eastern time.
Early voting. Watch each group's turnout in the early voting tracker above; it refreshes every morning. Early voting ends at 3 pm on Saturday, October 31, and mail ballots must reach county election offices by 7:30 pm on Election Day, with no grace period. Through October 21, registered Democrats cast 43% of early ballots, unaffiliated voters 34% and Republicans 22.5%. At the same point in 2022, Republicans were 31%. Republicans have usually voted later, so expect their share to climb.
Polls close everywhere in North Carolina. No results post anywhere in the state while anyone is still voting: in the March primary, one late-opening precinct in Halifax County held back every county's results until 8:30 pm. Mail ballots approved before Election Day post first. Early in-person votes take 30 to 60 minutes longer, because since 2023 counties can't start tabulating them until polls close. In Live data mode the page reads the State Board of Elections file every few minutes and knows which counties have counted only early votes.
Early votes arrive, and the first Election Day precincts. The State Board expects early votes by 9:30 pm and precinct results from 8:30 pm on. Early and mail ballots were 79% of the final vote in 2024 but only 58% in 2022, the last midterm. In 2022 that first batch had Democrats ahead by 8.8 statewide; Budd won by 3.2. So the early numbers will flatter Cooper.
Election Day precincts. Poll workers drive their results to the county offices, and in 2024 the State Board's lawyer expected most of them to be uploaded between 9:30 and 11 pm. The forecast's early-vote adjustment for each county shrinks as its precincts report. The Associated Press called North Carolina's 2024 presidential race at 11:18 pm with about 89% of the vote counted; a lopsided race this year could be called much sooner.
The last precincts. The State Board expects about 98% of all ballots to be in the unofficial count by the end of the night. If the race is within a point when you go to bed, the forecast's likely range is the honest answer.
The canvass. Provisional ballots, mail ballots whose problems voters fixed, and military and overseas ballots are added over the next several days. Counties certify their results at 11 am on Friday, November 13. These late additions are not modeled; they are usually small.
Recounts and statewide certification. The losing candidate can ask for a recount if the margin is no more than half a percent or 10,000 votes, whichever is less. The State Board of Elections certifies the statewide result on Tuesday, November 24. Recounts are not modeled.
Times are Eastern time. Counties post early votes first, then Election Day results. The method in six steps, then its track record on past races.
- All 100 counties are grouped by how they have moved relative to the statewide margin across eight statewide races (2016–2024). Each group is tied to one bellwether county.
- When a bellwether reports, its change from its 2024 President margin (Harris vs. Trump) is applied to every county in its group, and each group is weighted by its share of the vote.
- Early-vote readings are moved toward the expected final count. That uses each county's 2022–2024 early-versus-final record plus the 2026 Election Day tilt, scaled by how much is still uncounted. Counties not yet in borrow the average change of those that are, pulled slightly toward the polls.
- Uncertainty combines the minimum uncertainty, how much of each county is still uncounted, and which counties haven't reported. The win chance and the 500 simulated nights both come from that.
- Until results post, the forecast is the polling average minus an allowance for how North Carolina polls have leaned (1.5 points off Cooper unless you change it), with a 5-point spread, the typical size of a final North Carolina poll-average miss since 2018. Where early votes are coming from trims nothing off it by default: each point the early electorate leans more Democratic than at the same point in 2024, measured by county, counts for the weight you set under "Fine-tune the assumptions", and in 2022 and 2024, measured against the election two years earlier, that lean did not predict how the polls missed. The five counties only start to matter on election night.
- Scheduled jobs in the cloud pull the North Carolina State Board of Elections' early-vote files and a Wikipedia poll table every morning and afternoon. On election night they check the North Carolina State Board of Elections' results every few minutes. They write to this page's data store, which updates open copies of the page without a reload.
Track record: past races predicted from these five counties alone
| Race predicted | Baseline race | Actual | Model | Miss |
|---|
These misses flatter the model. The five counties were picked by searching for the set that best fits these same five races. Tested on races it had not seen, the same search missed by about two-thirds of a point. If a tie falls inside the likely range, treat the race as a toss-up.
What's different in 2026
The model is built on 2016–2024. Here is what could make this race break from those patterns, and how the model handles each.
| Factor | What it could do | How the model handles it |
|---|---|---|
| An open seat, and a well-known Democrat | Tillis announced in June 2025 that he wouldn't run again, after breaking with Trump over the tax and spending bill. Cooper won the governor's race twice (by 0.2 points in 2016 and 4.5 in 2020) and was attorney general before that. Whatley chaired the state Republican Party from 2019 to 2024 and the Republican National Committee from 2024 to 2025, ran at Trump's urging and won the March primary with 65%. As of October 22, Cooper led by 11.1 in the polling average (seven polls from September 29 to October 20, ranging from 7 to 14 points). The Cook Political Report rates the race Likely Democrat. | The starting point is the 2024 presidential race, not one of Cooper's own races. In What-if mode, the "Cooper's 2020 coalition returns" preset shows what a repeat of his 2020 gains over Biden would mean. Nash County, Cooper's home, is the rural bellwether; there is no home-county setting for this race, so if Nash moves far more than Wilson or Wayne, switch the row to one of them. |
| A midterm with Trump in the White House | Recent polls put Trump's approval in North Carolina in the mid-30s. Republican outside groups have pulled back: in September, Old North Action, the super PAC backing Whatley, cut $6.5 million of October ad bookings, and the main Republican Senate super PAC trimmed its own. Trump rallied for Whatley in Greenville on October 20. | Pick a turnout pattern under "Fine-tune the assumptions": "Like 2022" gives the mid-size cities a smaller share of the vote, as in the last midterm. Beyond that, turnout shows up in each county's result. |
| An early vote far more Democratic than usual | Through October 21, 1.1 million ballots were cast, 38% more than at this point in 2022. Registered Democrats cast 43%, unaffiliated voters 34% and Republicans 22.5%, compared with 39.5%, 29% and 31% at this point in 2022. Unaffiliated voters are now the largest group on the rolls, about 40%. Early leads can fade: in 2016 Democrats' early-vote edge shrank in the last week and Trump carried the state. | The model doesn't use party registration. Its early-vote signal is where ballots come from, and the tracker above compares each county with the same day in 2022 and 2024. That lean takes nothing off the poll allowance by default (adjustable): in 2022 and 2024, measured against the election two years earlier, it did not predict how the polls missed. |
| Early votes versus Election Day votes | In 2022, the first statewide batch of early and mail votes had Democrats ahead by 8.8; Budd won by 3.2, a 12-point move. In 2024 the move was 2.4 points toward Trump, and in the governor's race 1.2 toward Robinson. Early and mail ballots were 58% of the 2022 vote and 79% of 2024's. With this year's early vote so Democratic, Election Day votes may lean further Republican than usual. | Each county gets its own expected change from early votes to the final count, based on the 2022 Senate, 2024 presidential and 2024 governor's races, plus the "How much more Republican Election Day votes will be" setting for this year, which you can change. Counties with only early votes counted also get wider uncertainty. |
| Tighter mail rules and a new elections board | Mail ballots must arrive by 7:30 pm on Election Day, with no grace period, and include a copy of a photo ID; voters at the polls also need a photo ID. A ballot whose inner envelope arrives unsealed is rejected and reissued. Since May 2025 the State Board of Elections has been appointed by the Republican state auditor rather than the governor; an appeals court upheld the change in September 2026, and Governor Stein says he will appeal. | The forecast reads whatever the counties count. Rejected, cured and provisional ballots added after election night are not modeled. |
| Hurricane Helene, two years on | Helene did about $60 billion of damage in North Carolina in 2024, and recovery is a campaign issue: Cooper says Whatley, who sits on Trump's FEMA Review Council, hasn't won more aid for the mountains, and Whatley says Cooper failed the region as governor. In 2024, Buncombe moved 16 of its 80 Election Day polling places after the storm, and turnout in the hardest-hit counties held up. | No bellwether is in the mountains. Buncombe, Henderson, Transylvania and Watauga follow Chatham's swing; Haywood, Jackson, Rutherford and other mountain counties follow Nash; Avery, Mitchell and Madison follow Carteret. If you think the mountains will move differently, pick Buncombe or Transylvania for the suburbs row. |
| Voters splitting their tickets | In 2024, Stein won the governor's race by 14.8 while Trump carried the state by 3.2, an 18-point gap driven by Republican voters leaving Mark Robinson. Carteret, normally the steadiest county in the state, ran 6 points less Republican than usual compared with the state. | The starting point is the 2024 presidential race, so each county's shift is measured against Trump's result. In What-if mode, enter Senate margins, not governor's race margins. |
| North Carolina polls have leaned toward Democrats | The final RealClearPolitics average had Trump ahead by 1.2 in 2024; he won by 3.2. In 2020 the final averages ranged from Trump +0.2 to Biden +1.8; Trump won by 1.3. | Until results post, the allowance taken off Cooper's polling average is 1.5 points off Cooper by default, with a 5-point spread; you can change it under "Fine-tune the assumptions." North Carolina's final poll averages, taken the way this page takes them, understated Republicans by 3 to 6 points in all three 2020 races and by 2 in the 2024 presidential race, and were within a point in the 2022 Senate race and the 2024 governor's race. North Carolina's own average lean is 2.6 points; the default of 1.5 points is that average pooled with the other states' midterm-year misses, which have run about 0.4 of a point. The allowance also moves with where early votes are coming from. On election night the real county results replace the polls. |
| A Libertarian and a Green on the ballot | Shannon Bray (Libertarian) took 3.1% in the 2020 Senate race and 1.4% in 2022. Michael Dublin is the Green candidate; the Green Party's Matthew Hoh took 0.8% in 2022. | Margins are measured as a share of all votes cast, so the third-party share needs no separate adjustment. |
- County returns 2016–2024, with each county's early, mail and Election Day split: North Carolina State Board of Elections precinct results (2016, 2020, 2022 and 2024 generals, summed from precincts to counties)
- County boundaries: us-atlas (Census cartographic boundaries)
- Early-vote turnout: State Board of Elections absentee and one-stop data, compared with the same day of 2022 and 2024
- Polling average: Wikipedia, 2026 United States Senate election in North Carolina (poll table)
- Election-night results: State Board of Elections election-night results
- In the news: headlines and links from Google News, GDELT and the state's own news outlets, read twice a day. Pollitrack never fetches or stores the articles themselves.