Preview only: Arkansas's own model is not built yet. The county groups, map, what-if scenarios and past-race numbers on this page are Texas's, used as stand-ins. The polls and results are Arkansas's.
The forecast
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Numbers as a table
Things to know
The race in two minutes
Read by Maren Holt, Pollitrack's anchor · Recorded October 25
Read the transcript
I'm Maren Holt, and this is your Pollitrack digest on the Senate race in Arkansas.
On November 3, Arkansas decides who holds this seat for the next six years. The order of names is drawn county by county, so we list them alphabetically: Republican Tom Cotton, the senator seeking a third term, and Democrat Hallie Shoffner, a farmer from Newport.
The polling average has Cotton ahead by 9.7 points across six polls. Arkansas polls have understated Republicans in recent races, so Pollitrack's forecast moves that 1.5 points toward Cotton. That leaves Cotton ahead by 11.2, with a 99 percent chance of finishing first and Shoffner at 1 percent.
That is a wide lead. Races at odds like these rarely go the other way, but rarely is not never.
Early voting runs through November second. Voting by mail needs an excuse, and a mailed ballot has to reach the county clerk by 7:30 pm on Election Day. Pollitrack does not track Arkansas's early vote, so the forecast rests on the polls.
On election night, Pollitrack reads five bellwether counties, each standing in for a part of the state: Pulaski, home to Little Rock, for the biggest group, with Northwest Arkansas; Pope, home to Russellville, for the suburbs and the mid-size cities; Ouachita, home to Camden, for Jonesboro and the Delta; Clark, home to Arkadelphia, for the small towns; and Crawford, across the river from Fort Smith, for the hill counties.
Polls close at 7:30 pm Central. Counties count early, absentee and Election Day votes after the polls close and post them through the evening. Scroll down to explore each county, or switch to What-if mode and play out your own night. I'm Maren Holt. See you on election night.
The recording plays on the Pollitrack site. The transcript is above.
Early voting
How to read this: the line adds up early votes day by day, in person and by mail. The amber line is 2026; the gray lines are past years on the same day of early voting, so a 2026 line above them means more early votes than then. Refreshed every morning and afternoon from the Arkansas Secretary of State's early-vote counts.Numbers as a table
Numbers as a table
Cumulative early votes, in person and by mail, against the same day in 2022 and 2024.
In the news
How to read this: the headlines free news sources carry about this race, newest first, with who published each. The counts are how many stories named each candidate in the last seven days. Pollitrack reads the headlines; it does not judge them and they do not change the forecast.
The newest headlines about this race, refreshed twice a day.
This week: 4 stories name Cotton, 4 name Shoffner, 4 name both.
- Shoffner, Wadlin Discuss Agricultural, Healthcare, Workforce Support in ASU-TV Senate Debate
- Fundraising Update: Senator Tom Cotton just disclosed $0 of new fundraising
- U.S. Senate candidates Shoffner, Wadlin share debate stage for second time; Cotton opts out
- Hallie Shoffner Outraises Tom Cotton Nearly Threefold in Third Quarter Fundraising
- Shoffner crushes Cotton in 3Q fundraising
- Arkansas sees more than 56,000 turn out for first day of early voting
Five county groups
How to read this: every county joins the group whose bellwether county it has moved most like since 2016. The color is the group's margin in the view you pick: where its bellwether lands if the polls are right, its 2024 President result, or, on election night, how far each county has shifted since 2024. Darker means a bigger lead: 15 points or more, 5 to 15, or under 5. Tap a group or a county to light up its group.
Every county joins the bellwether it has voted most like since 2016.
Pick a group to light up its counties.
500 possible election nights
How to read this: the forecast is replayed 500 times, each with a different random draw of its uncertainty. Each dot is five possible nights, stacked by the statewide margin in 1-point steps: blue dots are Shoffner wins and red dots are Cotton wins. The more dots on one side of the tie line, the likelier that candidate wins.
The forecast replayed 500 times, with every county group free to miss.
Wins per 100 nights · each dot = 5 nights
The five bellwethers
How to read this: each row is one county, on a scale from a big Cotton lead (left) to a big Shoffner lead (right). The amber mark is the tie line: if every part of Arkansas shifted as much as this county did, a result there would mean a statewide tie. A dot to the right of it is good news for Shoffner, and to the left for Cotton; the colored bar shows how far each county is from the tie line, and toward whom. The gray ticks are the 2024 and 2022 results. The dot is where the polling average points until results post, then the real result. Drag a dot, tap anywhere on a row, or use the arrow keys to try your own numbers; the dot clicks onto the marks when you get close.
Drag a dot, or pick a scenario, to see who wins Arkansas.
Fine-tune the assumptions
County guides
Why each county was picked and what to watch.
Small-town test
ClarkTie line: Shoffner +10.2 · stands in for Batesville, Heber Springs, Malvern, Clarksville, Arkadelphia and the small towns, 17% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Trump +20.5
- 2022 Senate
- Boozman +23.2
- 2022 Governor
- Sanders +14.6
- Compared with Arkansas
- 10–25 points more Democratic in every race since 2016
Why this county
Clark County (Arkadelphia, home of Henderson State and Ouachita Baptist universities) leads the most counties: 33 that cast 16.7% of the 2024 vote, which Trump won by 54.8. They include Independence (Batesville), Cleburne (Heber Springs), Hot Spring (Malvern), Johnson (Clarksville), Conway (Morrilton), Logan, Grant and Madison, and small counties from the Delta (Desha, Monroe, Woodruff) to the Ouachita Mountains (Montgomery, Pike, Scott). Every point of swing here is worth about a sixth of a point statewide. Clark has tracked the group's swing closely in the six races the model was tested on; Conway (0.3 points off on average), Johnson (0.3), Van Buren (0.3) and Hot Spring (0.4) come next and are available as stand-ins.
What to look for
The tie line here is Shoffner +10.2: a Shoffner margin wider than 10.2 favors Shoffner; a narrower Shoffner margin or a Cotton lead favors Cotton. Boozman won Clark by 23.2 in 2022; Sanders won it by 14.6 the same year. Independence, the group's biggest county, has a tie line of Cotton +28.8.
When results come in
Every Arkansas county is on Central time, so its polls close at 7:30 pm Central. The county counts its early votes, absentee ballots and Election Day votes after the polls close and posts them through the evening.
Signals so far
For scale: Clark cast 6,105 votes in the 2022 Senate race and Independence 10,521.
Rural base test
CrawfordTie line: Cotton +27.5 · stands in for Van Buren, Mountain Home, Paragould, De Queen and the hill counties, 7% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Trump +58.2
- 2022 Senate
- Boozman +60.9
- 2022 Governor
- Sanders +55.9
- Compared with Arkansas
- 26–29 points more Republican in every race since 2016
Why this county
Crawford County (Van Buren and Alma, across the river from Fort Smith) leads 7 counties that cast 6.9% of the 2024 vote, which Trump won by 59.1: Baxter (Mountain Home), Greene (Paragould), Sharp and Searcy in the hills of the north, and Sevier (De Queen) and Howard (Nashville) in the southwest. Every point of swing here is worth about a fourteenth of a point statewide. Crawford has stayed within three points of the same distance from the state in every race since 2016, which makes it a steady guide; Sharp (0.3 points off on average), Greene (0.4), Howard (0.5) and Sevier (0.5) come close and are available as stand-ins.
What to look for
The tie line here is Cotton +27.5: a wider Cotton margin favors Cotton, a narrower one Shoffner. Boozman won Crawford by 60.9 in 2022; Sanders won it by 55.9. Greene, the group's third-biggest county, has a tie line of Cotton +30.6.
When results come in
Polls close at 7:30 pm Central. The page reads Crawford's count as it posts; to watch Greene or Sharp instead, pick it as the group's county.
Signals so far
For scale: Crawford cast 17,679 votes in the 2022 Senate race and Greene 11,506.
Jonesboro and Delta test
OuachitaTie line: Shoffner +11.6 · stands in for Jonesboro, Texarkana, El Dorado, West Memphis, Harrison, Camden and the Delta, 17% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Trump +19.1
- 2022 Senate
- Boozman +21.4
- 2022 Governor
- Sanders +17.1
- Compared with Arkansas
- 11–17 points more Democratic in every race since 2016
Why this county
Ouachita County (Camden) leads 22 counties that cast 17.1% of the 2024 vote, which Trump won by 35.8. They are Craighead (Jonesboro, home of Arkansas State University), Miller (Texarkana), Union (El Dorado), Columbia (Magnolia) and Ashley in the south; Crittenden (West Memphis), Mississippi (Blytheville), Phillips (Helena-West Helena), St. Francis (Forrest City) and Lee in the Delta; and Boone (Harrison), Carroll, Marion, Newton and Fulton in the Ozarks, grouped here because their swings have moved with these counties'. Every point of swing here is worth about a sixth of a point statewide. Columbia (0.4 points off on average), Miller (0.5), Ashley (0.6) and Mississippi (0.7) come next and are available as stand-ins.
What to look for
The tie line here is Shoffner +11.6: a Shoffner margin wider than 11.6 favors Shoffner; a narrower Shoffner margin or a Cotton lead favors Cotton. Boozman won Ouachita by 21.4 in 2022; Sanders won it by 17.1. Craighead, the group's biggest county, has a tie line of Cotton +6.8.
When results come in
Polls close at 7:30 pm Central. The page reads Ouachita's count as it posts; to watch Columbia or Miller instead, pick it as the group's county.
Signals so far
For scale: Ouachita cast 6,994 votes in the 2022 Senate race and Craighead 27,583.
Suburbs test
PopeTie line: Cotton +21.6 · stands in for the Little Rock suburbs, Fort Smith, Hot Springs, Searcy and Russellville, 25% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Trump +52.2
- 2022 Senate
- Boozman +54.3
- 2022 Governor
- Sanders +48.3
- Compared with Arkansas
- 19–23 points more Republican in every race since 2016
Why this county
Pope County (Russellville, home of Arkansas Tech University) leads 9 counties that cast 25.4% of the 2024 vote, which Trump won by 43.6: Saline (Benton and Bryant), Faulkner (Conway), Lonoke (Cabot) and White (Searcy) around Little Rock, Sebastian (Fort Smith), Garland (Hot Springs), Polk (Mena) and Franklin. Every point of swing here is worth about a quarter of a point statewide. Pope has tracked the group's swing closely in the six races the model was tested on; Faulkner (0.6 points off on average), Polk (0.9), Franklin (1.2) and Garland (1.3) come next and are available as stand-ins.
What to look for
The tie line here is Cotton +21.6: a wider Cotton margin favors Cotton, a narrower one Shoffner. Boozman won Pope by 54.3 in 2022; Sanders won it by 48.3. Saline, the group's biggest county, has a tie line of Cotton +9.5.
When results come in
Polls close at 7:30 pm Central. The page reads Pope's count as it posts; to watch Faulkner or Garland instead, pick it as the group's county.
Signals so far
For scale: Pope cast 17,454 votes in the 2022 Senate race and Saline 43,076.
Biggest vote source
PulaskiTie line: Shoffner +52.8 · stands in for Little Rock, Pine Bluff and Northwest Arkansas, 34% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Harris +22.1
- 2022 Senate
- James +12.0
- 2022 Governor
- Jones +22.8
- Compared with Arkansas
- 39–53 points more Democratic in every race since 2016
Why this county
Pulaski County (Little Rock and North Little Rock) leads the biggest group: 4 counties that cast 33.9% of the 2024 vote, which Trump won by 0.7. With it are Jefferson (Pine Bluff), and Benton (Bentonville and Rogers) and Washington (Fayetteville, home of the University of Arkansas) in Northwest Arkansas. Every point of swing here is worth about a third of a point statewide. Pulaski's lead over the state has grown from 39 points in the 2016 Senate and 2018 governor's races to 53 in 2024. Jefferson (0.6 points off on average), Benton (0.9) and Washington (1.5) are available as stand-ins.
What to look for
The tie line here is Shoffner +52.8: a Shoffner margin wider than 52.8 favors Shoffner, a narrower one Cotton. James won Pulaski by 12.0 in 2022 while losing the state by 34.6; Jones won it by 22.8 the same year. Benton, the group's second-biggest county, has a tie line of Shoffner +3.7.
When results come in
Polls close at 7:30 pm Central. Pulaski is the state's biggest count; to watch Benton or Washington instead, pick it as the group's county.
Signals so far
For scale: Pulaski cast 123,432 votes in the 2022 Senate race and Benton 90,562.
Timeline
When results usually arrive, Central time.
Early voting. Any registered voter can vote early in person, Monday, October 19 to 5 pm Monday, November 2, at the sites each county sets. Absentee voting by mail needs an excuse (away from the county, ill or disabled, in the military or overseas); a mailed ballot has to reach the county clerk by 7:30 pm on Election Day. The state publishes no early-vote counts before election night.
Polls close at 7:30 pm Central. Anyone in line by 7:30 pm can still vote. Counties count early votes, absentee ballots and Election Day votes after the polls close and post them to the Secretary of State's results site through the evening. Judge the night by the bellwethers against their tie lines (Pulaski's is Shoffner +52.8), not by the running total.
Provisional ballots and the county canvass. Counties settle provisional ballots and count overseas and military ballots that arrive by November 13, then certify their results.
State certification. The Secretary of State certifies the statewide results once the counties have reported. The page doesn't model a recount or an election contest.
Times are Central time. Counties count early votes, absentee ballots and Election Day votes after the polls close and post them in one running total through the night. The method in six steps, then its track record on past races.
- All 75 counties are grouped by how they have moved relative to the statewide margin across seven statewide races (2016–2024). Each group is tied to one bellwether county.
- When a bellwether reports, its change from its 2024 President margin (Harris vs. Trump) is applied to every county in its group, and each group is weighted by its share of the vote.
- Early-vote readings are moved toward the expected final count. That uses only the 2026 Election Day tilt (Arkansas doesn't publish past results split by vote type), scaled by how much is still uncounted. Counties not yet in borrow the average change of those that are, pulled slightly toward the polls.
- Uncertainty combines the minimum uncertainty, how much of each county is still uncounted, and which counties haven't reported. The win chance and the 500 simulated nights both come from that.
- Until results post, the forecast is the polling average minus an allowance for how Arkansas polls have leaned (1.5 points off Shoffner unless you change it), with a 5-point spread, the typical size of a final Arkansas poll-average miss since 2018. Where early votes are coming from trims nothing off it by default: each point the early electorate leans more Democratic than at the same point in 2024, measured by county, counts for the weight you set under "Fine-tune the assumptions", and in 2022 and 2024, measured against the election two years earlier, that lean did not predict how the polls missed. The five counties only start to matter on election night.
- Scheduled jobs in the cloud pull a Wikipedia poll table every morning and afternoon and write to this page's data store, which updates open copies of the page without a reload. Arkansas publishes no early-vote counts, and the page doesn't read its results site yet.
Track record: past races predicted from these five counties alone
| Race predicted | Baseline race | Actual | Model | Miss |
|---|
These misses flatter the model. The five counties were picked by searching for the set that best fits these same six races. Tested on races it had not seen, the same search missed by about 1.8 points.
What's different in 2026
The model is built on 2016–2024. Here is what could make this race break from those patterns, and how the model handles each.
| Factor | What it could do | How the model handles it |
|---|---|---|
| An incumbent and a third candidate | Tom Cotton won the seat in 2014, beating Mark Pryor by 17.1 points, and was re-elected in 2020 with no Democrat on the ballot (the Democratic nominee withdrew after the filing deadline), beating Libertarian Ricky Dale Harrington Jr. by 33.1. He won March's Republican primary with 81.6%. Hallie Shoffner, a farmer from Newport, won the Democratic primary with 78.3%. Jeff Wadlin, the Libertarian nominee, has polled at 3 to 4.5%. | Before results, the forecast is the polling average less Arkansas's allowance. The starting point for every county is the 2024 presidential race (Trump +30.6), so each county's swing measures how much better or worse Shoffner runs than Harris did there. Votes for Wadlin count only toward the total. |
| No Cotton race to compare | Cotton's 2020 race had no Democrat, so it says nothing about how his voters split from a Democrat's. The closest races are John Boozman's: he won the Senate seat by 23.6 points in 2016 and 34.6 in 2022. | The page leaves the 2020 Senate race out of its backtests. The "2022 Senate again" what-if replays each group's swing from Boozman's 2022 race against Natalie James. |
| A long way from a tie | Arkansas sent Democrats to the Senate until 2008, when Mark Pryor was re-elected with no Republican against him. Every race for president, Senate or governor since 2014 has gone Republican, by 14 to 35 points; Trump won the state by 30.6 in 2024. Shoffner led one poll this year, Hendrix College's in August, by 3 points. | The page measures every county against the 2024 presidential race, so a Shoffner win needs a swing of about 31 points toward her from Harris's showing, spread across the state. The scenario chart shows how often the forecast's uncertainty reaches that far. |
| No record of the count's order | The Secretary of State's results site keeps each past county's total only, with early votes, absentee ballots and Election Day votes counted together, so there is no county-by-county record of how the count moves through the night. | The page uses its default spread for the move from first results to the final count, and the "How much more Republican Election Day votes will be" setting starts at zero. Pick a turnout pattern under "Fine-tune the assumptions" ("Like 2022" or "Like 2018"). |
| Polls and Arkansas's record | The page's average of the 6 latest polls had Cotton ahead by 9.7 on October 25: Hendrix College for Talk Business & Politics in August (Shoffner +3) and October (Cotton +9), GrayHouse in February for America One Policies (Cotton +22) and on its own in October (Cotton +11), 2040 Strategy Group for Shoffner's campaign in July (Cotton +3) and J.L. Partners in August (Cotton +16). Fewer than three pollsters polled in the last three weeks, so the average reaches back to February. | Arkansas's final poll averages, taken the way this page takes them, understated the Republican in both statewide races since 2018 that had an average and enough polls: by 7.0 points in the 2022 governor's race and 0.9 in the 2020 presidential race. On average Arkansas's polls have leaned 4.0 points toward the Democrat; pooled with the other states' midterm-year misses, the default of 1.5 points is taken off Shoffner. The spread around the polling average is 5 points, and the allowance is adjustable under "Fine-tune the assumptions." |
- County returns 2016–2024: the Arkansas Secretary of State's results site (official results for the 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024 general elections, by county). Every race matches the certified statewide totals.
- County boundaries: us-atlas (Census cartographic boundaries)
- Early-vote turnout: none (Arkansas publishes no early-vote counts by county).
- Polling average: Wikipedia, 2026 United States Senate election in Arkansas (poll table)
- Election-night results: the Secretary of State's results site (not read live by this page yet).
- In the news: headlines and links from Google News, GDELT and the state's own news outlets, read twice a day. Pollitrack never fetches or stores the articles themselves.