Preview only: Alaska's own model is not built yet. The House district groups, map, what-if scenarios and past-race numbers on this page are Texas's, used as stand-ins. The polls and results are Alaska's.
The forecast
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Numbers as a table
Things to know
The race in two minutes
Read by Maren Holt, Pollitrack's anchor · Recorded October 24
Read the transcript
I'm Maren Holt, and this is your Pollitrack digest on the Senate race in Alaska.
On November 3, Alaska decides who holds this seat for the next six years. Alaska rotates the order of names from district to district, so we list them alphabetically: Democrat Mary Peltola, a former congresswoman, and Republican Dan Sullivan, the senator seeking a third term. Two other candidates are on the ballot, one of them a second Daniel Sullivan, so look for the middle initial.
The polling average has Peltola ahead by 3 points across six polls. Alaska is polled rarely, and its averages have leaned toward Democrats in past races, so Pollitrack's forecast trims that. That leaves Peltola ahead by 1.5, with a 62 percent chance of finishing first and Sullivan at 38 percent.
A lead that size is well inside a normal polling miss, and in Alaska the misses have been large. Either candidate could finish ahead.
Early voting is under way, but Alaska posts its early-vote counts only behind a check that automated readers cannot pass, so this page tracks no early vote.
Alaska ranks its general election. On election night, House districts post their Election Day and early votes. Absentee ballots are added over the next two weeks, and the ranked-choice tabulation follows on November eighteenth.
Pollitrack reads five bellwether House districts: District 22 in Northeast Anchorage for the road system and the Southeast, the best single read; District 11, Anchorage's Hillside, for the well-off suburbs and Juneau; District 36 for the Interior and the military bases; District 38, Bethel, for the Alaska Native vote; and District 5, Kodiak, for the fishing coast.
Polls close at 8 pm Alaska time, midnight in the East. Scroll down to explore each district, or switch to What-if mode and play out your own night. I'm Maren Holt. See you on election night.
The recording plays on the Pollitrack site. The transcript is above.
Early voting
How to read this: the line adds up early votes day by day, in person and by mail. The amber line is 2026; the gray lines are past years on the same day of early voting, so a 2026 line above them means more early votes than then. Refreshed every morning and afternoon from the Alaska Division of Elections' early-vote counts.Numbers as a table
Numbers as a table
Cumulative early votes, in person and by mail, against the same day in 2022 and 2024.
In the news
How to read this: the headlines free news sources carry about this race, newest first, with who published each. The counts are how many stories named each candidate in the last seven days. Pollitrack reads the headlines; it does not judge them and they do not change the forecast.
The newest headlines about this race, refreshed twice a day.
This week: 42 stories name Peltola, 40 name Sullivan, 11 name both.
- Alaska Dem Mary Peltola in car crash during final sprint for Senate
- Car Crash With Alaska Democrat Peltola Delays Campaign Rallies
- Trump worried about Sen. Dan Sullivan labeled incumbent on Alaska ballot
- Blanche says Trump isnt trying to meddle with Alaska election results by suing over Senate race
- Senate Dems Seek Dismissal Of DOJ Alaska Election Lawsuit | NewsTalk WMEQ
- Blanche defends DOJ lawsuit blocking Alaska Senate results if Republican loses
Five House district groups
How to read this: every House district joins the group whose bellwether House district it has moved most like since 2016. The color is the group's margin in the view you pick: where its bellwether lands if the polls are right, its 2024 U.S. House result, or, on election night, how far each House district has shifted since 2024. Darker means a bigger lead: 15 points or more, 5 to 15, or under 5. Tap a group or a House district to light up its group.
Every House district joins the bellwether it has voted most like since 2016.
Pick a group to light up its House districts.
500 possible election nights
How to read this: the forecast is replayed 500 times, each with a different random draw of its uncertainty. Each dot is five possible nights, stacked by the statewide margin in 1-point steps: blue dots are Peltola wins and red dots are Sullivan wins. The more dots on one side of the tie line, the likelier that candidate wins.
The forecast replayed 500 times, with every House district group free to miss.
Wins per 100 nights · each dot = 5 nights
The five bellwethers
How to read this: each row is one House district, on a scale from a big Sullivan lead (left) to a big Peltola lead (right). The amber mark is the tie line: if every part of Alaska shifted as much as this House district did, a result there would mean a statewide tie. A dot to the right of it is good news for Peltola, and to the left for Sullivan; the colored bar shows how far each House district is from the tie line, and toward whom. The gray ticks are the 2024 and 2022 results. The dot is where the polling average points until results post, then the real result. Drag a dot, tap anywhere on a row, or use the arrow keys to try your own numbers; the dot clicks onto the marks when you get close.
Drag a dot, or pick a scenario, to see who wins Alaska.
Fine-tune the assumptions
House district guides
Why each House district was picked and what to watch.
Anchorage and Juneau test
District 11Tie line: Peltola +6.4 · Anchorage's Hillside stands in for the suburbs that have moved toward Peltola
- 2024 U.S. House
- Peltola +5.3
- 2024 President
- Trump +2.3
- 2022 U.S. House
- Peltola +2.7
- Compared with Alaska
- About even with the state from 2016 to 2020; 6 points more Democratic in the 2024 House race and 11 in the presidential race
Why this House district
District 11 (Anchorage's Hillside) stands in for five districts of well-off, highly educated suburbs: South Anchorage and Girdwood (District 9), Southwest Anchorage (15), Eagle River (23) and downtown Juneau (4). They cast 15.3% of the statewide vote, and Peltola won them by 11.3 in 2024. They voted about like the rest of Alaska in 2016 and have moved toward Democrats since. District 9 has tracked the group a little better in the seven races the model was tested on and is offered as a stand-in, along with 15 and 23.
What to look for
The tie line here is Peltola +6.4: a result above it favors Peltola, below it Sullivan. Peltola won it by 5.3 in 2024 and lost Alaska by 1.1 on first choices. If the polls are right (Peltola by about 3), it should come in near 9.4. Below 5, Sullivan is probably ahead; near 9.4, Peltola probably is. District 9's tie line is Peltola +10.6 and Eagle River's is Sullivan +8.2.
When results come in
Anchorage counts its precincts on election night, so most of District 11's election-night count should be in by late evening. Its absentee ballots come later, and they matter here more than almost anywhere: in 2024 they moved District 11 another 4.2 points toward the Democrat after election night, the second-largest late shift in the state.
Signals so far
In the August 18 top-four primary, Democrats (Peltola and two others) beat the Republicans on the ballot by 6.0 points in District 11, against 7.1 statewide. Alaska has no early-vote counts by district outside a CAPTCHA, so there is no turnout signal.
Best overall predictor
District 22Tie line: Peltola +14.5 · one Anchorage district for half of Alaska's vote
- 2024 U.S. House
- Peltola +13.4
- 2024 President
- Harris +1.2
- 2022 U.S. House
- Peltola +11.2
- Compared with Alaska
- 6 to 15 points more Democratic in every race since 2016
Why this House district
District 22 (Northeast Anchorage) stands in for the largest group: twenty districts along the road system and in the Southeast, from Midtown and Downtown Anchorage to Wasilla and Palmer, Kenai and Soldotna, North Pole, and most of the Southeast from Ketchikan to Haines. They cast 51.8% of the statewide vote and voted for Begich by 2.1 in 2024. Their leans differ, but their swings from race to race have moved together, and District 22's has matched them most closely. It is also the smallest bellwether, with 5,304 votes in 2024, so a few hundred ballots move it. The Wasilla lakes district (28), Palmer (25) and northern Juneau and Haines (3) are the stand-ins.
What to look for
The tie line here is Peltola +14.5: a result above it favors Peltola, below it Sullivan. Peltola won it by 13.4 in 2024. If the polls are right (Peltola by about 3), it should come in near 17.5. The stand-ins' tie lines are Sullivan +36.9 in District 28, Sullivan +24.5 in Palmer and Peltola +27.2 in District 3.
When results come in
Anchorage's precincts report on election night. District 22's late count moved it 1.5 points toward the Democrat in 2024, close to the state's 2.0.
Signals so far
In the August primary, Democrats beat Republicans by 21.0 points here, 13.9 points better than statewide, about the district's usual lean. There is no early-vote signal by district.
Interior and military test
District 36Tie line: Sullivan +5.8 · Interior villages and road towns that have drifted right
- 2024 U.S. House
- Begich +6.9
- 2024 President
- Trump +21.8
- 2022 U.S. House
- Palin and Begich +4.0
- Compared with Alaska
- Within 3 points of the state from 2016 to 2020; 4 to 9 points more Republican since 2022
Why this House district
District 36 covers the Interior from the Yukon villages to the Alaska Highway. It stands in for ten districts that have moved toward Republicans since 2022: the Fairbanks outskirts (34, 35) and Fort Wainwright (32), Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson and Mountain View in Anchorage (18, 19), the Kenai Peninsula outside Kenai and Soldotna (6, 8), and rural Mat-Su, Denali and Valdez (29, 30). They cast 25.9% of the statewide vote, and Begich won them by 12.5. The Salcha and Eielson district (34), Mountain View (19) and Homer (6) are the stand-ins.
What to look for
The tie line here is Sullivan +5.8: a wider Sullivan margin favors Sullivan, a narrower one Peltola. Begich won it by 6.9 in 2024. If the polls are right, it should come in near Sullivan +2.8. Homer's tie line is Sullivan +4.5 and Mountain View's is Peltola +33.1.
When results come in
The road towns report on election night; some villages in the district report a day or more later. Its late count barely moves it: 0.3 points toward the Democrat in 2024.
Signals so far
In the August primary, Democrats beat Republicans by 5.3 points here, 1.8 points worse than statewide. There is no early-vote signal by district.
Alaska Native vote test
District 38Tie line: Peltola +42.9 · Bethel and the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Peltola's home region
- 2024 U.S. House
- Peltola +41.8
- 2024 President
- Harris +11.8
- 2022 U.S. House
- Peltola +68.3
- Compared with Alaska
- 25 to 69 points more Democratic in every race since 2016
Why this House district
District 38 (Bethel and the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta villages) stands in for the three mostly Alaska Native districts of the west and north: Nome and the Bering Strait (39) and the North Slope and Northwest Arctic (40). They cast only 3.4% of the statewide vote, but they swing hard: Peltola, who is Yup'ik and from Bethel, won them by 57 in 2022 and by 37 in 2024, and Harris carried them by only 5.5 while Trump won District 40 by 10. That volatility is why this group's error, when its district hasn't reported, is the widest of the five. Districts 39 and 40 are the stand-ins.
What to look for
The tie line here is Peltola +42.9: a result above it favors Peltola, below it Sullivan. If the polls are right, it should come in near 45.9. A margin near 2022's 68 would look like her 2022 home-region vote; one near 2024's 42 would look like 2024's.
When results come in
Slowly. Many of the district's village precincts hand-count their ballots and report by phone, and some come in only a day or more after Election Day, so in Live data mode this district may still be partial when the rest of the state is in. Its late count moved it 0.4 points toward the Democrat in 2024.
Signals so far
In the August primary, Democrats beat Republicans by 48.6 points here. There is no early-vote signal by district.
Fishing towns test
District 5Tie line: Peltola +2.3 · Kodiak and Cordova, close to the state's average
- 2024 U.S. House
- Peltola +1.2
- 2024 President
- Trump +12.8
- 2018 Governor
- Begich +8.3
- Compared with Alaska
- Within 4 points of the state in every race since 2016 except the 2018 governor's race (15 more Democratic)
Why this House district
District 5 (Kodiak, Cordova and Prince William Sound) stands in for the fishing coast: itself and District 37, which runs from Bristol Bay and Dillingham down the Alaska Peninsula and the Aleutian chain. They cast 3.6% of the statewide vote, and Peltola, who has made fisheries her signature issue, won them by 5.8 in 2024. District 37 is the stand-in.
What to look for
The tie line here is Peltola +2.3, the closest of any bellwether to the state as a whole: a result above it favors Peltola, below it Sullivan. If the polls are right, it should come in near 5.3. District 37's tie line is Peltola +15.2.
When results come in
Kodiak and Cordova report on election night; District 37's island and peninsula villages are slower. District 5's late count moved it 2.9 points toward the Democrat in 2024, more than the state's 2.0.
Signals so far
In the August primary, Democrats beat Republicans by 19.0 points here, 11.9 points better than statewide. There is no early-vote signal by district.
Timeline
When results usually arrive, Alaska time.
Early and absentee voting. Early in-person voting runs from October 19 through Election Day, and mail ballots must be postmarked by November 3. Alaska posts early-vote counts by House district only behind a CAPTCHA, so this page doesn't track them; the Division of Elections' statistics page had 31,138 ballots returned statewide by October 23. Alaska doesn't count ballots by party, and the general election is a ranked-choice race among four candidates: Peltola, Dan S. Sullivan, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. (no relation) and Gerald Heikes.
Polls close. Polls close at 8 pm Alaska time (midnight Eastern); the western Aleutians, on Hawaii-Aleutian time, close an hour later. The first unofficial results usually post about 45 minutes after the close. They include the early votes cast through October 29 and the absentee ballots that arrived in the week before, then Election Day precincts as they come in.
Election Day precincts. Anchorage, Mat-Su, Fairbanks and Juneau count their precincts on the night. Many villages in the Bush hand-count their ballots and report by phone, some only the next day or later: in 2024, 399 of 403 precincts were in two days after Election Day. Even with the election-night count complete, Alaska's margin moved 2 points toward the Democrat in 2024 once absentee ballots were added: up to 4 points in South and East Anchorage, and little or none in the Bush.
Absentee and questioned ballots. Absentee ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 13 (later for ballots from overseas), and questioned ballots are checked against the voter rolls. The Division of Elections counts them in batches over the two weeks after Election Day; in 2024 they were about a quarter of the vote. Until they're in, the forecast's likely range includes them. A race within a couple of points on election night is not decided.
The ranked-choice tabulation. If no candidate has more than half the first choices, the last-place candidate is dropped and those ballots go to their next choice, round by round, on November 18. This page forecasts the first-choice count. Heikes and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. drew about 3.5% together in the August primary, and most of those ballots' next choices are expected to go to Dan S. Sullivan, so the final margin should come in at or a little more Republican than the first-choice margin. Certification follows in late November.
Times are Alaska time. House districts post Election Day and early votes on election night; absentee and questioned ballots are added over the following two weeks, and the ranked-choice tabulation is on November 18. The method in six steps, then its track record on past races.
- All 40 House districts are grouped by how they have moved relative to the statewide margin across eight statewide races (2016–2026). Each group is tied to one bellwether House district.
- When a bellwether reports, its change from its 2024 U.S. House margin (Peltola vs. Begich) is applied to every House district in its group, and each group is weighted by its share of the vote.
- Early-vote readings are moved toward the expected final count. That uses each House district's 2024 election-night-versus-final record plus the 2026 late-count tilt, scaled by how much is still uncounted. House districts not yet in borrow the average change of those that are, pulled slightly toward the polls.
- Uncertainty combines the minimum uncertainty, how much of each House district is still uncounted, and which House districts haven't reported. The win chance and the 500 simulated nights both come from that.
- Until results post, the forecast is the polling average minus an allowance for how Alaska polls have leaned (2 points off Peltola unless you change it), with a 5.5-point spread, the typical size of a final Alaska poll-average miss since 2018. Where early votes are coming from trims nothing off it by default: each point the early electorate leans more Democratic than at the same point in 2024, measured by House district, counts for the weight you set under "Fine-tune the assumptions", and in 2022 and 2024, measured against the election two years earlier, that lean did not predict how the polls missed. The five House districts only start to matter on election night.
- Scheduled jobs in the cloud pull a Wikipedia poll table every morning and afternoon, and on election night they check the Division of Elections' results by precinct every few minutes. They write to this page's data store, which updates open copies of the page without a reload. Alaska's early-vote counts by House district sit behind a CAPTCHA, so this page has none.
Track record: past races predicted from these five House districts alone
| Race predicted | Baseline race | Actual | Model | Miss |
|---|
These misses flatter the model. The five districts were picked by searching for the set that best fits these same seven races. Tested on races it had not seen, the same search missed by about 1.6 points, and by 3.2 on the 2026 primary. The 2016 to 2020 races are estimates: they were held on the old districts and carried onto today's by precinct. All of these are first-choice counts.
What's different in 2026
The model is built on 2016–2024. Here is what could make this race break from those patterns, and how the model handles each.
| Factor | What it could do | How the model handles it |
|---|---|---|
| Sullivan is the incumbent; Peltola has won statewide before | Sullivan was first elected in 2014 and re-elected in 2020 by 12.7 points, before Alaska switched to ranked-choice voting. Peltola won the U.S. House seat in 2022 and lost it to Nick Begich in 2024 by 2.0 points on first choices (2.4 after the ranked-choice count). She led the August 18 top-four primary with 49.5% to Sullivan's 41.4%. Lisa Murkowski, who endorsed Peltola for the House in 2022 and 2024, endorsed Sullivan this time. | The starting point for every House district is Peltola's own 2024 race (Begich +1.1 counting every Democrat and Republican on the ballot), so on election night each district's swing measures how much better or worse she runs than she did two years ago. The 2024 presidential race (Trump +13.1) is in each district's guide for comparison. |
| Two Dan Sullivans on the ballot | Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired teacher from Petersburg with no relation to the senator, is on the general-election ballot as a registered Republican; he drew 2.5% in the primary. The senator calls his candidacy an attempt to confuse voters, which he and the Peltola campaign deny, and the Alaska Supreme Court kept him on the ballot. In late October the Trump administration filed a lawsuit seeking to block certification if the senator loses narrowly. | The page counts only the senator's votes ("Sullivan, Dan S.") for the Republican side; votes for the other Sullivan count toward the total but for neither candidate. Lawsuits and certification are not modeled. |
| Ranked-choice voting with four candidates | Peltola, both Sullivans and Gerald Heikes (Republican) are on the ballot. If no one has more than half the first choices, the ranked-choice tabulation on November 18 drops the last-place candidates and moves their ballots to their next choices. In the 2024 House race, Begich led by 2.0 on first choices and won by 2.4 after transfers. | Alaska counts U.S. Senate ballots by ranked-choice voting: if no candidate has more than half the first choices, the last-place candidate is dropped and those ballots count for their next choice, round by round. This page forecasts the first count. The ranked-choice tabulation is on Nov 18. A first-choice lead of under about 2 points for Peltola could still be overturned by transfers; the page doesn't model them. |
| The late count leans Democratic | Election night counts Election Day votes, early votes cast through October 29 and absentee ballots that arrived before the last week. Absentee ballots that arrive later, through November 13, and questioned ballots are counted over the next two weeks. In 2024 those late ballots moved both the House and presidential margins 2 points toward the Democrat, up to 4 in parts of Anchorage. | Each House district gets its own expected change from its election-night count to the final count, measured from the 2024 election-night results the Division of Elections posted on November 8, 2024, plus a statewide setting you can change ("How much more Republican the late count will be"). There is no archived election-night count for 2022. |
| Few polls, and they have leaned Democratic | The page's average of recent polls had Peltola ahead by 3 in mid-October, from pollsters on both sides. Alaska is polled rarely: in four of the last six statewide races there were at most two polls in the final three weeks, often only Alaska Survey Research. Most of the polls report first choices; some report the ranked-choice rounds, and the page keeps the first round. | Alaska is polled rarely, often by one pollster, and its final averages have leaned toward the Democrat: by 4.5 points in the 2020 presidential race and 8 in the 2020 Senate race (270toWin), with Alaska Survey Research often the only firm in the field. The default of 2 points is Alaska's record pooled with the other states' midterm-year misses, which have run smaller. The spread around the polling average is 5.5 points, and the allowance is adjustable under "Fine-tune the assumptions." |
| New district lines in 2022, and no early-vote counts by district | The 40 House districts were redrawn for 2022. Alaska's 2016 to 2020 results are reported by the old districts, and a third to a half of each race's votes (absentee, early and questioned ballots) only by old district. The 2026 early-vote report by House district is behind a CAPTCHA. | The 2016 to 2020 races are carried onto today's districts precinct by precinct, with each old district's absentee, early and questioned votes shared out by its Election Day votes. Statewide totals are exact; district numbers for those years are estimates. The page has no early-vote turnout, so its early-vote adjustment is off. |
| Small districts and slow villages | A House district casts 3,000 to 12,000 votes, and the five bellwethers cast 36,000 together in 2024. Rural village precincts often hand-count and report a day or more late. | A small group's swing is less certain when its district hasn't reported: the Bethel group's error then is the widest of the five. The minimum uncertainty, once all five have counted, is 2 points. |
- House district returns 2022–2026, with each district's Election Day, early, absentee and questioned votes: Alaska Division of Elections results by precinct (the 2022 and 2024 generals and the August 18, 2026 primary)
- Returns 2016–2020, on the old districts: the same archive's precinct files, carried onto today's districts by precinct name and the 2020 precinct map; absentee, early and questioned votes, reported only by old district, are shared out by Election Day votes, so these district numbers are estimates
- The 2024 election-night count by district: the Division of Elections' results page as of November 8, 2024, from the Wayback Machine
- District boundaries: Census cartographic boundary files (2024 state legislative districts, lower chamber)
- Early voting, statewide only: Division of Elections absentee and early-vote statistics (the report by House district sits behind a CAPTCHA)
- Polling average: Wikipedia, 2026 United States Senate election in Alaska (poll tables, first-choice rows)
- Election-night results: Alaska Division of Elections election-night reporting
- In the news: headlines and links from Google News, GDELT and the state's own news outlets, read twice a day. Pollitrack never fetches or stores the articles themselves.