Preview only: New Jersey's own model is not built yet. The county groups, map, what-if scenarios and past-race numbers on this page are Texas's, used as stand-ins. The polls and results are New Jersey's.
The forecast
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Numbers as a table
Things to know
Early voting
How to read this: the line adds up early votes day by day, in person and by mail. The amber line is 2026; the gray lines are past years on the same day of early voting, so a 2026 line above them means more early votes than then. Refreshed every morning and afternoon from the New Jersey Division of Elections' early-vote counts.Numbers as a table
Numbers as a table
Cumulative early votes, in person and by mail, against the same day in 2022 and 2024.
In the news
How to read this: the headlines free news sources carry about this race, newest first, with who published each. The counts are how many stories named each candidate in the last seven days. Pollitrack reads the headlines; it does not judge them and they do not change the forecast.
The newest headlines about this race, refreshed twice a day.
This week: 22 stories name Booker, 4 name Murphy, 7 name both.
- Cory Booker Fires Up Monmouth County Democrats at Neptune Rally Ahead of Election Day
- Murphy wants Trump rally in New Jersey
- It's 'insulting Alaskan voters': Sen. Booker on the DOJ lawsuit to block Alaska Senate results if Republican incumbent loses
- Booker, Sewell join Figures rally in Montgomery as Election Day nears
- Could Cory Booker lose his NJ Senate seat? What forecasts show
- Figures, Sewell, Booker rally in Montgomery for 2nd Congressional District race
Five county groups
How to read this: every county joins the group whose bellwether county it has moved most like since 2016. The color is the group's margin in the view you pick: where its bellwether lands if the polls are right, its 2024 President result, or, on election night, how far each county has shifted since 2024. Darker means a bigger lead: 15 points or more, 5 to 15, or under 5. Tap a group or a county to light up its group.
Every county joins the bellwether it has voted most like since 2016.
Pick a group to light up its counties.
500 possible election nights
How to read this: the forecast is replayed 500 times, each with a different random draw of its uncertainty. Each dot is five possible nights, stacked by the statewide margin in 1-point steps: blue dots are Booker wins and red dots are Murphy wins. The more dots on one side of the tie line, the likelier that candidate wins.
The forecast replayed 500 times, with every county group free to miss.
Wins per 100 nights · each dot = 5 nights
The five bellwethers
How to read this: each row is one county, on a scale from a big Murphy lead (left) to a big Booker lead (right). The amber mark is the tie line: if every part of New Jersey shifted as much as this county did, a result there would mean a statewide tie. A dot to the right of it is good news for Booker, and to the left for Murphy; the colored bar shows how far each county is from the tie line, and toward whom. The gray ticks are the 2024 and 2020 results. The dot is where the polling average points until results post, then the real result. Drag a dot, tap anywhere on a row, or use the arrow keys to try your own numbers; the dot clicks onto the marks when you get close.
Drag a dot, or pick a scenario, to see who wins New Jersey.
Fine-tune the assumptions
County guides
Why each county was picked and what to watch.
South Jersey test
CamdenTie line: Booker +21.5 · stands in for Camden, Gloucester, Atlantic, Cumberland, Cape May and Salem counties, 16% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Harris +27.4
- 2024 Senate
- Kim +32.1
- 2020 Senate
- Booker +33.6
- Compared with New Jersey
- 16–23 points more Democratic in every race since 2017
Why this county
Camden County (Camden, Cherry Hill and the Philadelphia suburbs) leads the six South Jersey counties, which cast 16.0% of the 2024 vote and which Harris won by 6.0: Gloucester, Atlantic (Atlantic City), Cumberland (Vineland), Cape May and Salem. Camden has tracked the group's swing most closely in the seven races the model was tested on; Gloucester (0.7 points off on average), Cumberland (0.9) and Atlantic (0.9) come close, and Cape May is available as a stand-in.
What to look for
The tie line here is Booker +21.5: a result above it favors Booker, below it Murphy. Booker won Camden by 33.6 in 2020, Kim by 32.1 in 2024 and Harris by 27.4 in 2024. Gloucester's tie line is Murphy +8.7 and Atlantic's Murphy +8.9.
When results come in
All of New Jersey closes at 8 pm Eastern. Each county posts its mail and early votes soon after, then its Election Day precincts. To watch Gloucester instead, pick it as the group's county.
Signals so far
For scale: Camden cast 239,408 votes in the 2024 Senate race and Gloucester 159,349.
Northwest suburbs test
HunterdonTie line: Murphy +12.6 · stands in for Morris and Somerset counties, 13% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Trump +6.7
- 2024 Senate
- Bashaw +6.9
- 2020 Senate
- Mehta +8.7
- Compared with New Jersey
- 13–34 points more Republican in every race since 2017
Why this county
Hunterdon County (Flemington and the farm towns along the Delaware) leads three suburban counties that cast 12.7% of the 2024 vote, which Harris won by 2.1: Morris (Morristown, Parsippany) and Somerset (Bridgewater, Franklin). Hunterdon has tracked the group's swing most closely; Morris (0.5 points off on average) and Somerset (0.5) come close and are available as stand-ins.
What to look for
The tie line here is Murphy +12.6: a wider Murphy margin favors Murphy, a narrower one Booker. Mehta won Hunterdon by 8.7 in 2020, Bashaw by 6.9 in 2024 and Trump by 6.7 in 2024. Morris, the group's biggest county, has a tie line of Murphy +8.6 and Somerset's is Booker +8.0.
When results come in
Each county posts its mail and early votes soon after 8 pm, then its Election Day precincts. To watch Morris instead, pick it as the group's county.
Signals so far
For scale: Hunterdon cast 77,099 votes in the 2024 Senate race and Morris 268,652.
Swing-county test
MonmouthTie line: Murphy +17.3 · stands in for Burlington, Mercer, Sussex and Warren counties, 21% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Trump +11.4
- 2024 Senate
- Bashaw +9.7
- 2020 Senate
- Mehta +4.9
- Compared with New Jersey
- 17–26 points more Republican in every race since 2017
Why this county
Monmouth County (the northern Shore, from Asbury Park to Freehold) leads five counties that cast 21.0% of the 2024 vote, which Harris won by 2.1: Burlington and Mercer (Trenton, Princeton) in the middle of the state, and Sussex and Warren in the northwest. Their voters lean in different directions, but their swings from one race to the next have moved together. Monmouth has tracked the group's swing most closely; Warren (0.7 points off on average) and Mercer (0.8) come close, and Sussex and Burlington are available as stand-ins.
What to look for
The tie line here is Murphy +17.3: a wider Murphy margin favors Murphy, a narrower one Booker. Mehta won Monmouth by 4.9 in 2020, Bashaw by 9.7 in 2024 and Trump by 11.4 in 2024. Burlington's tie line is Booker +10.7 and Mercer's Booker +28.0. This is the second-biggest group: a point of swing here is worth about a fifth of a point statewide.
When results come in
Each county posts its mail and early votes soon after 8 pm, then its Election Day precincts. To watch Burlington instead, pick it as the group's county.
Signals so far
For scale: Monmouth cast 344,229 votes in the 2024 Senate race and Burlington 221,831.
Biggest 2024 swing
PassaicTie line: Murphy +8.8 · stands in for Hudson County, 10% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Trump +2.9
- 2024 Senate
- Kim +2.7
- 2020 Senate
- Booker +23.0
- Compared with New Jersey
- From 8 points more Democratic in 2017 to 9 more Republican in 2024
Why this county
Passaic County (Paterson, Clifton and Wayne) leads two counties that cast 10.2% of the 2024 vote, which Harris won by 13.6: Passaic and Hudson (Jersey City, Union City, Hoboken). Both moved furthest toward Republicans in 2024, and back toward Democrats in 2025. Passaic has tracked the pair's swing more closely; Hudson (1.9 points off on average) is available as a stand-in.
What to look for
The tie line here is Murphy +8.8: a Murphy margin wider than 8.8 favors Murphy; a narrower Murphy margin or a Booker lead favors Booker. Booker won Passaic by 23.0 in 2020, Trump by 2.9 in 2024, and Sherrill by 16.2 in 2025. Hudson's tie line is Booker +22.1. Whether the 2024 move holds in a midterm is the question this group answers.
When results come in
Each county posts its mail and early votes soon after 8 pm, then its Election Day precincts. To watch Hudson instead, pick it as the group's county.
Signals so far
For scale: Passaic cast 186,028 votes in the 2024 Senate race and Hudson 207,904.
Biggest vote source
UnionTie line: Booker +18.3 · stands in for Bergen, Middlesex, Essex and Ocean counties, 40% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Harris +24.2
- 2024 Senate
- Kim +26.6
- 2020 Senate
- Booker +36.5
- Compared with New Jersey
- 17–21 points more Democratic in every race since 2017
Why this county
Union County (Elizabeth, Union and Plainfield) leads the biggest group: five counties that cast 40.1% of the 2024 vote, which Harris won by 7.1. They are Bergen, Middlesex (New Brunswick, Edison), Essex (Newark) and Ocean (Toms River, Lakewood). Their voters range from Essex, the most Democratic county, to Ocean, the most Republican, but their swings from one race to the next have moved together. Union has tracked the group's swing most closely; Bergen (0.5 points off on average) comes close, and Essex, Middlesex and Ocean are available as stand-ins.
What to look for
The tie line here is Booker +18.3: a result above it favors Booker, below it Murphy. Booker won Union by 36.5 in 2020, Kim by 26.6 in 2024 and Harris by 24.2 in 2024. Bergen, the state's biggest county, has a tie line of Murphy +2.5, Essex Booker +39.0 and Ocean Murphy +41.9. These counties decide most of the statewide margin: a point of swing here is worth about two-fifths of a point statewide.
When results come in
Each county posts its mail and early votes soon after 8 pm, then its Election Day precincts. To watch Bergen instead, pick it as the group's county.
Signals so far
For scale: Union cast 222,224 votes in the 2024 Senate race and Bergen 427,834.
Timeline
When results usually arrive, Eastern time.
Early and mail voting. In-person early voting runs nine days, Saturday, October 24 to Sunday, November 1, at polling places each county sets. County clerks mail ballots to every voter on the permanent mail list and to anyone who asks; a mail ballot application sent by mail must arrive by Tuesday, October 27. A mail ballot can be mailed back, left in a drop box or handed in at the county board of elections. New Jersey publishes no running counts of early or mail votes by county, so this page doesn't track them.
Polls close at 8 pm Eastern. Anyone in line by 8 pm can still vote. Counties count mail ballots before Election Day and post them with the early in-person votes soon after the polls close, then Election Day precincts as they report. Judge the night by the bellwethers against their tie lines (Passaic's is Murphy +8.8, Union's Booker +18.3), not by the running total.
Late mail ballots and the county count. A mail ballot postmarked by Election Day still counts if it reaches the county board of elections by November 9, six days later. Voters whose mail ballot has a problem with its signature are told and can fix it. Provisional ballots are checked, and each county's board of canvassers certifies its results.
State certification. The State Board of Canvassers certifies the statewide results in early December. New Jersey has no automatic recount; a candidate can ask a court for one. The page doesn't model a recount.
Times are Eastern time. Counties post the mail and early in-person votes they counted before Election Day soon after polls close, then Election Day precincts as they report, and this page doesn't read them live yet. The method in six steps, then its track record on past races.
- All 21 counties are grouped by how they have moved relative to the statewide margin across eight statewide races (2017–2025). Each group is tied to one bellwether county.
- When a bellwether reports, its change from its 2024 President margin (Harris vs. Trump) is applied to every county in its group, and each group is weighted by its share of the vote.
- Early-vote readings are moved toward the expected final count. That uses only the 2026 Election Day tilt (New Jersey doesn't publish past results split by vote type), scaled by how much is still uncounted. Counties not yet in borrow the average change of those that are, pulled slightly toward the polls.
- Uncertainty combines the minimum uncertainty, how much of each county is still uncounted, and which counties haven't reported. The win chance and the 500 simulated nights both come from that.
- Until results post, the forecast is the polling average minus an allowance for how New Jersey polls have leaned (2 points off Booker unless you change it), with a 6-point spread, the typical size of a final New Jersey poll-average miss since 2018. Where early votes are coming from trims nothing off it by default: each point the early electorate leans more Democratic than at the same point in 2024, measured by county, counts for the weight you set under "Fine-tune the assumptions", and in 2022 and 2024, measured against the election two years earlier, that lean did not predict how the polls missed. The five counties only start to matter on election night.
- Scheduled jobs in the cloud pull a Wikipedia poll table every morning and afternoon and write to this page's data store, which updates open copies of the page without a reload. New Jersey's election-night results and early-vote counts are not read yet.
Track record: past races predicted from these five counties alone
| Race predicted | Baseline race | Actual | Model | Miss |
|---|
These misses flatter the model. The five counties were picked by searching for the set that best fits these same seven races. Tested on races it had not seen, the same search missed by about 1.2 points. New Jersey also has no live results feed on this page yet: until one is added, it follows the polls on election night too.
What's different in 2026
The model is built on 2016–2024. Here is what could make this race break from those patterns, and how the model handles each.
| Factor | What it could do | How the model handles it |
|---|---|---|
| An incumbent against a former township official | Cory Booker, Newark's mayor until 2013, won the seat in a 2013 special election and was reelected in 2014 and 2020, when he beat Rik Mehta by 16.3 points. He was unopposed in the June 2 Democratic primary. Justin Murphy, a lawyer and former Tabernacle township committeeman, won the Republican primary with 33.4% over Richard Tabor (29.2%), Alex Zdan (26.8%) and Robert Lebovics (10.7%). Veronica Fernandez (End the Corruption!) and Joanne Kuniansky (Socialist Workers Party) are also on the ballot. | Before results, the forecast is the polling average less New Jersey's allowance. The starting point for every county is the 2024 presidential race (Harris +5.9), so each county's swing measures how much better or worse Booker runs than Harris did there. |
| No polls of the race | No public poll of Booker against Murphy had been published by October 25. | Until a poll comes out, the page's polling average is a stand-in: the 2024 presidential margin, Harris +5.9, with the allowance added back, so the forecast before results is that margin. New Jersey's final poll averages, taken the way this page takes them, overstated the Democrat in six of the eight statewide races since 2017: by 9.9 points in the 2024 presidential race, 9.4 in the 2024 Senate race, 8.7 in the 2020 Senate race, 4.6 in the 2020 presidential race and in the 2021 governor's race, and 0.5 in the 2017 governor's race. They understated Sherrill by 8.9 in 2025 and Menendez by 2.1 in 2018. On average New Jersey's polls have leaned 3.3 points toward the Democrat; pooled with the other states' midterm-year misses, that gives the default of 2 points: an allowance of 2 points taken off Booker. The spread around it is 6 points, and the allowance is adjustable under "Fine-tune the assumptions." |
| Polls that missed in both directions | New Jersey's final averages overstated the Democrat by 9 to 10 points in 2024 and in the 2020 Senate race, then understated Mikie Sherrill by about 9 in the 2025 governor's race, which she won by 14.4. | The allowance comes from that record pooled with other states'. The spread is wider than most states' because of it. |
| Ballot order drawn county by county | Each county clerk draws lots for the order of the parties' columns on that county's ballot (N.J.S.A. 19:14-12), so Booker is listed first in some counties and Murphy in others. | The page lists the candidates alphabetically. |
| Hudson and Passaic's 2024 swing | New Jersey went from Biden +15.9 in 2020 to Harris +5.9 in 2024. The biggest moves were in Passaic and Hudson: Passaic went from Biden +16.6 to Trump +2.9, and Hudson from 30 points more Democratic than the state to 22. In the 2025 governor's race Passaic went back to Sherrill by 16.2. | Pick a turnout pattern under "Fine-tune the assumptions" ("Like 2025" or "Like 2021"). The "2020 again" what-if replays each group's swing from Booker's own 2020 race. |
| Results by county, all in one count | The Division's official results give each county's total only, not mail, early and Election Day votes apart, so there is no county-by-county record of how the count moves through the night. | The page uses its default spread for the move from first results to the final count, and the "How much more Republican Election Day votes will be" setting starts at zero. |
- County returns 2017–2025: the New Jersey Division of Elections' official general election results (each county's count for every candidate). The counties add up to the official statewide count exactly.
- Candidates: the Division's official list of general election candidates for U.S. Senate (July 27, 2026)
- County boundaries: us-atlas (Census cartographic boundaries)
- Early voting: not on this page (New Jersey publishes no running counts of early or mail votes by county).
- Polling average: Wikipedia, 2026 United States Senate election in New Jersey (poll table; none of the general election yet)
- Election-night results: not read by this page yet (each county clerk posts its own count on election night).
- In the news: headlines and links from Google News, GDELT and the state's own news outlets, read twice a day. Pollitrack never fetches or stores the articles themselves.