Preview only: Kentucky's own model is not built yet. The county groups, map, what-if scenarios and past-race numbers on this page are Texas's, used as stand-ins. The polls and results are Kentucky's.
The forecast
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Numbers as a table
Things to know
Early voting
How to read this: the line adds up early votes day by day, in person and by mail. The amber line is 2026; the gray lines are past years on the same day of early voting, so a 2026 line above them means more early votes than then. Refreshed every morning and afternoon from the Kentucky State Board of Elections' early-vote counts.Numbers as a table
Numbers as a table
Cumulative early votes, in person and by mail, against the same day in 2022 and 2024.
In the news
How to read this: the headlines free news sources carry about this race, newest first, with who published each. The counts are how many stories named each candidate in the last seven days. Pollitrack reads the headlines; it does not judge them and they do not change the forecast.
The newest headlines about this race, refreshed twice a day.
This week: 12 stories name Barr, 6 name Booker, 52 name both.
- Alvarado, Dembo court Lexington voters with just over a week until election to replace Barr
- Republican and Democrat County Judge/Executives Unite Behind Barr for Senate
- This close race for Congress in Kentucky is now a 'toss up,' analysts say
- Alvarado, Dembo clash on affordability, housing and 'Big Beautiful Bill' in Lexington debate for Barr's seat
- Why did Andy Barr run a racist ad? It’s all about Donald Trump
- Booker emphasizes affordability, health care during Hopkinsville campaign stop
Five county groups
How to read this: every county joins the group whose bellwether county it has moved most like since 2016. The color is the group's margin in the view you pick: where its bellwether lands if the polls are right, its 2024 President result, or, on election night, how far each county has shifted since 2024. Darker means a bigger lead: 15 points or more, 5 to 15, or under 5. Tap a group or a county to light up its group.
Every county joins the bellwether it has voted most like since 2016.
Pick a group to light up its counties.
500 possible election nights
How to read this: the forecast is replayed 500 times, each with a different random draw of its uncertainty. Each dot is five possible nights, stacked by the statewide margin in 1-point steps: blue dots are Booker wins and red dots are Barr wins. The more dots on one side of the tie line, the likelier that candidate wins.
The forecast replayed 500 times, with every county group free to miss.
Wins per 100 nights · each dot = 5 nights
The five bellwethers
How to read this: each row is one county, on a scale from a big Barr lead (left) to a big Booker lead (right). The amber mark is the tie line: if every part of Kentucky shifted as much as this county did, a result there would mean a statewide tie. A dot to the right of it is good news for Booker, and to the left for Barr; the colored bar shows how far each county is from the tie line, and toward whom. The gray ticks are the 2024 and 2022 results. The dot is where the polling average points until results post, then the real result. Drag a dot, tap anywhere on a row, or use the arrow keys to try your own numbers; the dot clicks onto the marks when you get close.
Drag a dot, or pick a scenario, to see who wins Kentucky.
Fine-tune the assumptions
County guides
Why each county was picked and what to watch.
Coal country test
GarrardTie line: Barr +29.7 · stands in for the eastern and western coalfields and the Bluegrass farm towns, 13% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Trump +60.2
- 2023 Governor
- Cameron +24.6
- 2022 Senate
- Paul +54.4
- Compared with Kentucky
- 19–31 points more Republican in every race since 2016
Why this county
Garrard County (Lancaster, south of Lexington) leads 27 counties that cast 12.8% of the 2024 vote, which Trump won by 60.9. They are the eastern coalfields from Pike, Floyd, Perry and Harlan to Knox, Clay and Laurel (London), the western coalfield's Hopkins (Madisonville) and Muhlenberg, and Bluegrass farm counties such as Anderson, Mercer, Bourbon and Harrison. Garrard has tracked the group's swing closely in the six races the model was tested on; Hopkins (0.5 points off on average), Mercer (0.6), Knox and Harlan (0.6) come close and are available as stand-ins.
What to look for
The tie line here is Barr +29.7: a wider Barr margin favors Barr, a narrower one Booker. Paul won Garrard by 54.4 in 2022 while winning the state by 23.6; Cameron won it by 24.6 in 2023 while losing the state by 5.1. Laurel, the group's biggest county, has a tie line of Barr +39.3.
When results come in
Garrard is on Eastern time, so its polls close at 6 pm Eastern. To watch Hopkins (Central time, an hour later) instead, pick it as the group's county.
Signals so far
For scale: Garrard cast 5,906 votes in the 2022 Senate race and Laurel 17,570.
Farm belt test
LoganTie line: Barr +24.5 · stands in for Hopkinsville, Murray, Russellville and the Tennessee line, 5% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Trump +55.0
- 2023 Governor
- Cameron +25.3
- 2022 Senate
- Paul +46.7
- Compared with Kentucky
- 16–30 points more Republican in every race since 2016
Why this county
Logan County (Russellville) leads 12 counties along the Tennessee line that cast 4.7% of the 2024 vote, which Trump won by 49.1: Christian (Hopkinsville and Fort Campbell), Calloway (Murray), Allen, Simpson (Franklin), Trigg and Todd, Clinton and Cumberland in the south-central hills, and the Jackson Purchase counties of Carlisle, Fulton and Hickman. Every point of swing here is worth about a twentieth of a point statewide, so it matters most as a check on the other groups. Calloway (0.5 points off on average) comes as close as Logan, and Allen, Trigg and Clinton are available as stand-ins.
What to look for
The tie line here is Barr +24.5: a wider Barr margin favors Barr, a narrower one Booker. Paul won Logan by 46.7 in 2022; Cameron won it by 25.3 in 2023. Christian, the group's biggest county, has a tie line of Barr +3.0.
When results come in
The whole group is on Central time, so its polls close at 7 pm Eastern, an hour after most of the state. Its first counts come in after the eastern counties'.
Signals so far
For scale: Logan cast 8,508 votes in the 2022 Senate race and Christian 15,465.
Biggest vote source
MadisonTie line: Barr +0.3 · stands in for Louisville, Lexington, northern Kentucky, Bowling Green and the other cities, 56% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Trump +30.9
- 2023 Governor
- Beshear +3.4
- 2022 Senate
- Paul +23.9
- Compared with Kentucky
- within 3 points of the state in every race since 2016
Why this county
Madison County (Richmond and Berea, home of Eastern Kentucky University) leads the biggest group: 22 counties that cast 56.1% of the 2024 vote, which Trump won by 8.9. Besides Madison they are Jefferson (Louisville), Fayette (Lexington), northern Kentucky's Kenton, Boone and Campbell, Warren (Bowling Green), Hardin (Elizabethtown), Daviess (Owensboro), McCracken (Paducah), Franklin (Frankfort) and the counties around Louisville and Lexington. Every point of swing here is worth more than half a point statewide. Madison has voted within 3 points of the state in every race since 2016, close enough to work as a bellwether on its own. Scott (1.0 points off on average) comes next, and Daviess, Campbell and Kenton are available as stand-ins.
What to look for
The tie line here is Barr +0.3: a Booker lead or a Barr margin under 0.3 favors Booker, a wider Barr margin favors Barr. Paul won Madison by 23.9 in 2022 while winning the state by 23.6; Beshear won it by 3.4 in 2023 while winning the state by 5.1. Jefferson's tie line is Booker +47.1 and Fayette's Booker +48.6.
When results come in
Madison is on Eastern time, so its polls close at 6 pm Eastern. To watch Kenton or Campbell in northern Kentucky instead, pick it as the group's county.
Signals so far
For scale: Madison cast 30,012 votes in the 2022 Senate race, Jefferson 277,772 and Fayette 106,548.
Small-town test
TaylorTie line: Barr +26.1 · stands in for Bardstown, Henderson, Mayfield, Mount Sterling and the small towns, 12% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Trump +56.7
- 2023 Governor
- Cameron +18.4
- 2022 Senate
- Paul +50.1
- Compared with Kentucky
- 16–27 points more Republican in every race since 2016
Why this county
Taylor County (Campbellsville) leads the most counties: 33 that cast 12.3% of the 2024 vote, which Trump won by 54.8. They include Nelson (Bardstown), Henderson, Marshall, Graves (Mayfield), Montgomery (Mount Sterling), Marion, Breckinridge, Bell and many of the state's smallest counties, from Owsley and Lee in the east to Ballard in the far west. Taylor has tracked the group's swing closely in the six races the model was tested on; Henderson (0.6 points off on average), Graves and Henry (0.7) come close, and Adair is available as a stand-in.
What to look for
The tie line here is Barr +26.1: a wider Barr margin favors Barr, a narrower one Booker. Paul won Taylor by 50.1 in 2022; Cameron won it by 18.4 in 2023. Nelson, the group's biggest county, has a tie line of Barr +11.2.
When results come in
The page reads Taylor's count as it posts. Henderson and Graves, in the west, are on Central time and close at 7 pm Eastern; to watch one of them instead, pick it as the group's county.
Signals so far
For scale: Taylor cast 8,996 votes in the 2022 Senate race and Nelson 16,993.
Rural base test
WhitleyTie line: Barr +38.8 · stands in for Somerset, Glasgow, the Lake Cumberland hills and Bullitt County, 14% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Trump +69.3
- 2023 Governor
- Cameron +34.5
- 2022 Senate
- Paul +63.7
- Compared with Kentucky
- 29–40 points more Republican in every race since 2016
Why this county
Whitley County (Williamsburg and Corbin, on the Tennessee line) leads 26 counties that cast 14.1% of the 2024 vote, which Trump won by 61.5. They are Bullitt and Spencer south of Louisville, Pulaski (Somerset) and the Lake Cumberland counties, Barren (Glasgow), Grayson, Meade, Greenup and Lawrence along the Ohio and Big Sandy rivers, and hill counties such as Rockcastle, Casey, Jackson and McCreary. Whitley has tracked the group's swing closely in the six races the model was tested on; Barren (0.5 points off on average) and Lincoln (0.6) come close, and Grant and Bullitt are available as stand-ins.
What to look for
The tie line here is Barr +38.8: a wider Barr margin favors Barr, a narrower one Booker. Paul won Whitley by 63.7 in 2022; Cameron won it by 34.5 in 2023. Bullitt, the group's biggest county, has a tie line of Barr +20.4.
When results come in
Whitley is on Eastern time, so its polls close at 6 pm Eastern. Barren, a stand-in, is on Central time and closes an hour later.
Signals so far
For scale: Whitley cast 10,043 votes in the 2022 Senate race and Bullitt 24,842.
Timeline
When results usually arrive, Eastern time.
Absentee and early voting. Voters who asked for a mail-in ballot by October 20 must get it back to the county clerk by 6 pm local time on Election Day. Voters with an excuse (illness, travel, work, school) could vote in person at the clerk's office on October 21 to 23 and 26 to 28, and every voter can vote in person, no excuse needed, on Thursday to Saturday, October 29 to 31. The State Board of Elections posts a workbook of the absentee and early ballots; this page doesn't read it yet.
Polls close at 6 pm local time. The eastern and central counties close at 6 pm Eastern, the western counties at 6 pm Central (7 pm Eastern). Anyone in line by 6 pm can still vote. Counties post their counts to the State Board's results site through the evening. Judge the night by the bellwethers against their tie lines (Madison's is Barr +0.3), not by the running total.
County canvass. Each county board of elections counts the last mail-in and provisional ballots and certifies its results to the State Board.
State certification. The State Board of Elections certifies the statewide results in late November (the 2024 certification was later amended on December 9). Kentucky has no automatic recount. The page doesn't model a recount.
Times are Eastern time. Counties post their counts to the State Board's results site through the evening, the eastern counties an hour before the western ones. The method in six steps, then its track record on past races.
- All 120 counties are grouped by how they have moved relative to the statewide margin across seven statewide races (2016–2024). Each group is tied to one bellwether county.
- When a bellwether reports, its change from its 2024 President margin (Harris vs. Trump) is applied to every county in its group, and each group is weighted by its share of the vote.
- Early-vote readings are moved toward the expected final count. That uses only the 2026 Election Day tilt (Kentucky doesn't publish past results split by vote type), scaled by how much is still uncounted. Counties not yet in borrow the average change of those that are, pulled slightly toward the polls.
- Uncertainty combines the minimum uncertainty, how much of each county is still uncounted, and which counties haven't reported. The win chance and the 500 simulated nights both come from that.
- Until results post, the forecast is the polling average minus an allowance for how Kentucky polls have leaned (3 points off Booker unless you change it), with a 5.5-point spread, the typical size of a final Kentucky poll-average miss since 2018. Where early votes are coming from trims nothing off it by default: each point the early electorate leans more Democratic than at the same point in 2024, measured by county, counts for the weight you set under "Fine-tune the assumptions", and in 2022 and 2024, measured against the election two years earlier, that lean did not predict how the polls missed. The five counties only start to matter on election night.
- Scheduled jobs in the cloud pull a Wikipedia poll table every morning and afternoon and write to this page's data store, which updates open copies of the page without a reload. Kentucky's election-night results and early-vote counts are not read yet.
Track record: past races predicted from these five counties alone
| Race predicted | Baseline race | Actual | Model | Miss |
|---|
These misses flatter the model. The five counties were picked by searching for the set that best fits these same six races. Tested on races it had not seen, the same search missed by about 1.4 points.
What's different in 2026
The model is built on 2016–2024. Here is what could make this race break from those patterns, and how the model handles each.
| Factor | What it could do | How the model handles it |
|---|---|---|
| An open seat | Mitch McConnell, first elected in 1984, isn't running again. Andy Barr, the congressman for the Lexington-based 6th District since 2013, won May's Republican primary with 60.5% over Daniel Cameron. Charles Booker, a former state representative from Louisville, won the Democratic primary over Amy McGrath and Pamela Stevenson; he was the 2022 nominee, losing to Rand Paul by 23.6 points. Christopher Campbell (Kentucky Party) is also on the ballot, and Thomas Michael Murphy is a write-in. | Before results, the forecast is the polling average less Kentucky's allowance. The starting point for every county is the 2024 presidential race (Trump +30.5), so each county's swing measures how much better or worse Booker runs than Harris did there. |
| Governor's races that break the pattern | Andy Beshear won the governor's race by 0.4 points in 2019 and by 5.1 in 2023, in a state Trump carried by 25.9 in 2020 and 30.5 in 2024. In Senate races since 2016 the Republican has won by 14.5 to 23.6 points. | The page's backtests include both governor's races, so the bellwethers were picked to follow swings that big. In What-if mode, enter Senate margins, not governor's race margins. |
| Two time zones | Polls close at 6 pm local time: 6 pm Eastern in the eastern and central counties, including Louisville, Lexington and northern Kentucky, and 6 pm Central (7 pm Eastern) in the west, including Bowling Green, Owensboro and Paducah. For the first hour of the night the count leans toward the eastern half of the state. | The bellwethers are compared one county at a time, so the order counties report in doesn't move the forecast. Pick a turnout pattern under "Fine-tune the assumptions" ("Like 2022" or "Like 2019"). The "2022 again" what-if replays each group's swing from Booker's own 2022 race. |
| No record of the count's order | Kentucky's certified results give each county's total only, and this site has no archived election-night count, so there is no county-by-county record of how the count moves through the night. | The page uses its default spread for the move from first results to the final count, and the "How much more Republican Election Day votes will be" setting starts at zero. |
| Polls and Kentucky's record | The page's average of the 2 latest polls had Barr ahead by 10.0 on October 25. Both are from firms that mostly work for Democrats: Public Policy Polling in December 2025 and Global Strategy Group in August 2026. | Kentucky's final poll averages, taken the way this page takes them, understated the Republican in three of the four statewide races since 2019 that had enough polls: by 10.9 points in the 2020 Senate race, 10.4 in the 2020 presidential race and 3.1 in the 2019 governor's race. They overstated Cameron by 1.1 in the 2023 governor's race. On average Kentucky's polls have leaned 5.8 points toward the Democrat; pooled with the other states' midterm-year misses, that gives the default of 3 points: an allowance of 3 points taken off Booker. The spread around the polling average is 5.5 points, and the allowance is adjustable under "Fine-tune the assumptions." |
- County returns 2016–2024: the Kentucky State Board of Elections' certified results (one report per election, every statewide race by county); the 2019 governor's race from Wikipedia's county table and the 2022 Senate race from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab's precinct returns, because those two years' certifications are scanned images. Both are within 0.02% of the certified totals.
- County boundaries: us-atlas (Census cartographic boundaries)
- Absentee and early-vote turnout: not on this page yet.
- Polling average: Wikipedia, 2026 United States Senate election in Kentucky (poll table)
- Election-night results: not on this page yet (the State Board's results site refuses the page's data client).
- In the news: headlines and links from Google News, GDELT and the state's own news outlets, read twice a day. Pollitrack never fetches or stores the articles themselves.