Preview only: Maine's own model is not built yet. The town groups, map, what-if scenarios and past-race numbers on this page are Texas's, used as stand-ins. The polls and results are Maine's.
The forecast
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Numbers as a table
Things to know
The race in two minutes
Read by Maren Holt, Pollitrack's anchor · Recorded October 24
Read the transcript
I'm Maren Holt, and this is your Pollitrack digest on the Senate race in Maine.
On November 3, Maine decides who holds this seat for the next six years. On the ballot, in the order Maine lists them: Republican Susan Collins, the senator, seeking another term, and Democrat Troy Jackson, a logger from Allagash and a former president of the state Senate.
The polling average has Jackson ahead by 1.4 points across ten recent polls. Pollitrack's forecast takes 2 points off Jackson's side, because Maine polls have understated Republicans in several recent races, Collins's own race in 2020 most of all, and it adjusts a little for the early vote. That puts Collins ahead by 0.1, with a 51 percent chance of finishing first and Jackson at 49 percent.
In other words, a coin flip. Either candidate could finish ahead.
Absentee voting runs through October 29. So far, about 175 thousand Mainers have voted. That is 140 percent of the 2022 midterm at the same point, and 84 percent of the 2024 presidential pace.
A big early vote does not tell us who is ahead. It tells us interest is high on both sides.
On election night, Pollitrack reads five bellwether towns, each standing in for a part of the state: Portland for the coast, Winthrop, the town that has tracked the state most closely, Berwick for the southern commuter towns, Poland for rural and small-town Maine, and Old Town for Bangor and the north.
Polls close at 8 pm Eastern. Maine counts Senate races by ranked choice: if no one passes half of the first choices, the later rounds are counted in Augusta over the following days, and this page shows the first round. Scroll down to explore each town, or switch to What-if mode and play out your own night. I'm Maren Holt. See you on election night.
The recording plays on the Pollitrack site. The transcript is above.
Early voting
How to read this: the line adds up early votes day by day, in person and by mail. The amber line is 2026; the gray lines are past years on the same day of early voting, so a 2026 line above them means more early votes than then. Refreshed every morning and afternoon from the Maine Secretary of State's absentee voter file.Numbers as a table
Numbers as a table
Cumulative early votes, in person and by mail, against the same day in 2022 and 2024.
In the news
How to read this: the headlines free news sources carry about this race, newest first, with who published each. The counts are how many stories named each candidate in the last seven days. Pollitrack reads the headlines; it does not judge them and they do not change the forecast.
The newest headlines about this race, refreshed twice a day.
This week: 62 stories name Collins, 55 name Jackson, 44 name both.
- Susan Collins won women in 2020. How they break in 2026 could decide the Maine Senate race.
- Troy Jackson rallies union supporters as US Senate race in Maine enters final stretch
- Democratic US Senate candidate Troy Jackson criticizes Sen. Collins, Trump at Westbrook rally
- Democratic US Senate candidate Troy Jackson calls Donald Trump 'a narcissist' and Susan Collins his 'puppet' who will 'kiss the a**' of the president
- Susan Collins tailgates and Troy Jackson rallies with 10 days left until Election Day
- Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson spar over Trump, trade and abortion in Senate Debate
Five town groups
How to read this: every town joins the group whose bellwether town it has moved most like since 2016. The color is the group's margin in the view you pick: where its bellwether lands if the polls are right, its 2024 President result, or, on election night, how far each town has shifted since 2024. Darker means a bigger lead: 15 points or more, 5 to 15, or under 5. Tap a group or a town to light up its group.
Every town joins the bellwether it has voted most like since 2016.
Pick a group to light up its towns.
500 possible election nights
How to read this: the forecast is replayed 500 times, each with a different random draw of its uncertainty. Each dot is five possible nights, stacked by the statewide margin in 1-point steps: blue dots are Jackson wins and red dots are Collins wins. The more dots on one side of the tie line, the likelier that candidate wins.
The forecast replayed 500 times, with every town group free to miss.
Wins per 100 nights · each dot = 5 nights
The five bellwethers
How to read this: each row is one town, on a scale from a big Collins lead (left) to a big Jackson lead (right). The amber mark is the tie line: if every part of Maine shifted as much as this town did, a result there would mean a statewide tie. A dot to the right of it is good news for Jackson, and to the left for Collins; the colored bar shows how far each town is from the tie line, and toward whom. The gray ticks are the 2024 and 2020 results. The dot is where the polling average points until results post, then the real result. Drag a dot, tap anywhere on a row, or use the arrow keys to try your own numbers; the dot clicks onto the marks when you get close.
Drag a dot, or pick a scenario, to see who wins Maine.
Fine-tune the assumptions
Town guides
Why each town was picked and what to watch.
Portland and coast test
PortlandTie line: Jackson +58.4 · the biggest group, and where Collins's crossover votes count most
- 2024 President
- Harris +64.9
- 2020 Senate
- Gideon +46.7
- 2022 Governor
- Mills +71.3
- Compared with Maine
- 54–58 points more Democratic, every race since 2016
Why this town
Portland casts about one in twenty Maine votes (39,336 in 2024), and its gap with the state has held steady: 54 to 58 points more Democratic in every race since 2016. Its group of 54 towns (South Portland, Scarborough, Brunswick, Saco, Biddeford, Westbrook and most of the southern coast) casts 30% of the statewide vote, more than any other group, and Harris won it by 41. It's also where Collins found the most crossover votes: in 2020 Biden won the group by 41.1 while Gideon won it by only 20.8, a 20-point gap, compared with 17.7 points statewide.
What to look for
The tie line here is Jackson +58: a result above it favors Jackson, below it Collins. Harris won it by 64.9 and won Maine by 7; Gideon won it by 46.7 and lost Maine by 8.6. A Jackson margin in the 60s means Collins is drawing few crossover votes, and Jackson is probably ahead. A margin in the low 50s means she is drawing many, and Collins is probably ahead. South Portland (tie line Jackson +44.9) is a good second check.
When results come in
Maine has no live state results feed, so on election night this page stays on the polls until the Secretary of State posts its town-by-town spreadsheet, likely weeks later. The Bangor Daily News (with Decision Desk HQ) and the Associated Press collect Portland's count from the city clerk that night. To use it, switch to What-if mode and set Portland to that margin. Half of Portland's 2024 votes were absentee ballots (19,805), which can't be tallied until polls close at 8, so big cities can take a while. In 2020 Kittery, in this group, had its count Tuesday night but sent it in Wednesday morning.
Signals so far
South Portland: . Maine overall: . As of October 19 this group's towns together were 8% behind 2024's pace, the closest of any group; the rural group was 28% behind. Enrolled Democrats cast 71% of Portland's returned absentee ballots and Republicans 6%, compared with 66% and 9% of all its absentee ballots in 2024. Bernie Sanders rallied with Jackson in Biddeford on October 11.
Best overall predictor
WinthropTie line: Collins +1.8 · the town that has tracked Maine most closely
- 2024 President
- Harris +4.7
- 2020 Senate
- Collins +10.6
- 2022 Governor
- Mills +11.3
- Compared with Maine
- 0.1–1.8 points more Republican, every race since 2016
Why this town
No Maine town has tracked the statewide result more closely. Winthrop, a Kennebec County lake town of about 3,900 voters just west of Augusta, has voted between 0.1 and 1.8 points more Republican than Maine in every statewide race since 2016. Add a point to its margin and you'd never have missed the statewide result by more than 0.9 points. In the last three races it sat at the more Republican end of that range. Its group of 97 towns, including Lewiston, Sanford, Augusta, Waterville, Brewer and Ellsworth, casts 23% of the statewide vote and split almost exactly evenly in 2024 (Harris +0.5).
What to look for
The tie line here is Collins +1.8: a wider Collins margin favors Collins, a narrower one Jackson. Harris won it by 4.7 and Maine by 7; Collins won it by 10.6 in 2020 and Maine by 8.6; Mills won it by 11.3 in 2022. If Jackson carries Winthrop, he's probably ahead statewide; if Collins wins it by 5 or more, she probably is. Augusta, the capital, is a bigger stand-in in the same group (tie line Jackson +3.4).
When results come in
Like every Maine town, Winthrop reports to news outlets on election night, not to a live state feed, so this page won't have its count until the Secretary of State's spreadsheet posts. If you're following along, set Winthrop in What-if mode to the margin the Bangor Daily News or the Associated Press reports. About half of its 2024 votes (1,969) were absentee ballots. Its result arrives complete: Maine reports no split between absentee and Election Day votes, so there's no early number that later moves.
Signals so far
Lewiston, the group's biggest city: . Augusta: . As of October 19, enrolled Democrats cast 47% of Winthrop's returned absentee ballots and Republicans 24%, compared with 37% and 32% of all its absentee ballots in 2024. Sanders and Jackson held a rally in Lewiston on October 11.
Southern exurbs test
BerwickTie line: Collins +12.9 · commuter towns where Collins ran least far ahead of Trump
- 2024 President
- Trump +6.4
- 2020 Senate
- Collins +18.4
- 2022 Governor
- Mills +0.2
- Compared with Maine
- 9–17 points more Republican since 2016
Why this town
Berwick, a York County town on the New Hampshire line, leads 61 towns in the commuter belt around Portland and Lewiston: Auburn, Windham, Standish, Gray, Buxton, Lisbon and the southern lake towns. They cast 15% of the statewide vote and split nearly evenly in 2024 (Trump +1.9). Berwick has moved toward Democrats, from Trump +14.0 in 2016 to Trump +6.4 in 2024. It's also where Collins's personal vote was thinnest: in 2020 she ran 13 points ahead of Trump in Berwick, compared with 17.7 statewide. Of the five bellwethers it's one of the noisier stand-ins, so check Lisbon too.
What to look for
The tie line here is Collins +12.9: a wider Collins margin favors Collins, a narrower one Jackson. Trump won it by 6.4 in 2024 while losing Maine by 7; Collins won it by 18.4 in 2020; Mills carried it by 0.2 in 2022. At Collins +15 or more, she's probably ahead; under 10, Jackson probably is. Lisbon's tie line is Collins +17.3.
When results come in
Not on this page until the Secretary of State's spreadsheet posts; on the night, Berwick's clerk reports to the news media. Towns that filed notice may open and check absentee ballots from October 27, seven days before Election Day, but nobody may tally them until polls close. In 2024, 37% of Berwick's votes (1,730) were absentee ballots. Clerks then have two days to send their unofficial count to the Secretary of State.
Signals so far
Auburn, the group's biggest city: . Windham: . As of October 19, enrolled Democrats cast 42% of Berwick's returned absentee ballots and Republicans 24%, compared with 34% and 27% in 2024. Unenrolled voters cast a third, more than in most of Maine.
Rural Maine test
PolandTie line: Collins +19.4 · stands in for 154 small towns, from the western lakes to Presque Isle
- 2024 President
- Trump +12.9
- 2020 Senate
- Collins +28.7
- 2022 Governor
- LePage +7.9
- Compared with Maine
- 17–21 points more Republican, every race since 2016
Why this town
Poland, an Androscoggin County lake town (the Poland Spring of the bottled water), leads the group with the most towns: 154 rural and small-town places, including Presque Isle, Hermon, Turner, Sidney and Hollis, casting 18% of the statewide vote. Trump won the group by 24 in 2024 and Collins by 37 in 2020. Poland has voted 17 to 21 points more Republican than Maine in every race since 2016, so it's a steady read on rural Maine. Every point of swing here is worth about a fifth of a point statewide. Jackson is a fifth-generation logger from Allagash, near the Canadian border, and this group tests whether that plays in rural Maine.
What to look for
The tie line here is Collins +19.4: a wider Collins margin favors Collins, a narrower one Jackson. Trump won it by 12.9 in 2024; Collins won it by 28.7 in 2020; LePage won it by 7.9 in 2022 even while losing Maine by 13. A Collins margin in the high 20s, like 2020, means she is probably ahead; well under 20, Jackson probably is.
When results come in
Not on this page until the Secretary of State's spreadsheet posts. Poland is big enough to count by scanner, but about 150 Maine towns, all with fewer than 750 registered voters, count by hand, with two clerks tallying each race and checking that their sheets match. Many of them are in this group (58 of its towns cast fewer than 500 votes in 2024), so the rural picture in news outlets' counts fills in late in the night and into Wednesday.
Signals so far
Presque Isle: . As of October 19 this group's towns were 28% behind 2024's pace, though rural mail ballots tend to come back late. Enrolled Democrats cast 42% of Poland's returned absentee ballots and Republicans 27%, compared with 32% and 35% in 2024.
Northern Maine test
Old TownTie line: Jackson +6.1 · both candidates' home ground, from Bangor to the St. John Valley
- 2024 President
- Harris +12.7
- 2020 Senate
- Collins +5.7
- 2022 Governor
- Mills +21.3
- Compared with Maine
- 3–10 points more Democratic since 2016
Why this town
Old Town, a Penobscot River city just north of Bangor, leads 117 towns across central and northern Maine: Bangor, Skowhegan, Farmington, Caribou, Houlton, Millinocket, Fort Kent and Madawaska. They cast 14% of the statewide vote; Trump won them by 10.8 in 2024. The candidates' roots meet here. Collins grew up in Caribou and lives in Bangor; Jackson was born in Fort Kent and lives in Allagash. In 2020 Biden lost this group by 6.8 while Gideon lost it by 25.2; in Caribou, Biden lost by 13.9 and Gideon by 46.2. Old Town is the least precise of the five bellwethers, so Bangor is worth a look too.
What to look for
The tie line here is Jackson +6: a result above it favors Jackson, below it Collins. Harris won it by 12.7; Collins won it by 5.7 in 2020; Mills won it by 21.3 in 2022. If Collins carries Old Town again, she's very likely ahead statewide; if Jackson wins it by Harris's 12.7 or more, he very likely is. In Bangor the tie line is Jackson +13.1; Gideon lost Bangor by 0.6. Old Town is also home to Matt Dunlap, the Democratic nominee for the open 2nd District House seat against Paul LePage.
When results come in
Not on this page until the Secretary of State's spreadsheet posts; on the night, clerks here report to the Bangor Daily News and the Associated Press. Northern Maine can be slow. In 2020 the Associated Press called the 2nd District for Trump early Wednesday afternoon and the Senate race for Collins around the same time, with about 95% of the vote counted.
Signals so far
Bangor: . Caribou: . As of October 19 this group's towns were 30% behind 2024's pace, the furthest behind of the five. Enrolled Democrats cast 55% of Old Town's returned absentee ballots and Republicans 20%, compared with 46% and 25% in 2024. Sanders drew more than 600 people to a rally for Jackson in Bangor on October 10.
Timeline
When results usually arrive, Eastern time.
Absentee voting. Maine's early voting is absentee voting: in person at the town office through October 29 (also the last day to ask for a ballot), or by mail or drop box until polls close at 8 pm on Election Day. The tracker above counts returned ballots by town and party from the Secretary of State's file, a day behind. Through October 19, 127,000 had come back, 17% fewer than at this point in 2024 but 37% more than in 2022. Enrolled Democrats cast 53% of them and Republicans 20%; in 2024's final absentee count it was 42% and 28%.
Polls close everywhere in Maine; towns start counting. Towns that gave notice could open and check absentee ballots from October 27, but nobody may tally them before now. About 150 small towns count by hand; the other 330 or so, including all five bellwethers, use scanners. There is no live state results feed. Clerks report their counts to the Bangor Daily News (with Decision Desk HQ) and the Associated Press, and some post their own. This page doesn't read those, so its forecast stays on the polls tonight. To try a town's real number, switch to What-if mode and set that bellwether to the margin the news reports.
Towns report to news outlets; the page is still on the polls. Clerks report first choices only. A town's count arrives all at once, since Maine doesn't report absentee and Election Day votes separately, so a bellwether's margin can go straight into What-if mode. Big towns with many absentee ballots, such as Portland, where half of 2024's votes were absentee, can take longer. Decision Desk HQ and the Associated Press project a winner only when the result is nearly certain not to change.
The last towns report. In 2020 some towns sent their counts Wednesday morning and the count ran most of the day. Gideon conceded and the Associated Press called the race for Collins early Wednesday afternoon, with about 95% counted. Clerks have two days to send their unofficial results to the Secretary of State. If the race is within a point or two of 50%, the next step may decide it.
A ranked-choice count in Augusta, if no one has a majority. With only two names on the ballot, a second round happens only if blank ballots and write-ins (six declared write-in candidates this year) keep the leader under half of the first-round ballots. That happened in the 2024 2nd District race: Golden had 48.65% and Theriault 48.11%, so the Secretary of State gathered the ballot records in Augusta, started the count on November 12 and announced the winner on November 15, ten days after the election. This page shows the first-round margin and doesn't model later rounds. A losing candidate has five business days to ask for a recount.
The Secretary of State's spreadsheet posts; the page switches to results. The state has 20 days to certify the count, which means by November 23. In 2024 the town-by-town U.S. Senate spreadsheet was posted by November 26, with a corrected version on December 5. Once it posts, the page reads every town's first-round count at once and real results replace the polls.
Times are Eastern time. Towns post early votes first, then Election Day results. The method in six steps, then its track record on past races.
- All 483 towns are grouped by how they have moved relative to the statewide margin across six statewide races (2016–2024). Each group is tied to one bellwether town.
- When a bellwether reports, its change from its 2024 President margin (Harris vs. Trump) is applied to every town in its group, and each group is weighted by its share of the vote.
- Early-vote readings are moved toward the expected final count. That uses only the 2026 Election Day tilt (Maine doesn't publish past results split by vote type), scaled by how much is still uncounted. Towns not yet in borrow the average change of those that are, pulled slightly toward the polls.
- Uncertainty combines the minimum uncertainty, how much of each town is still uncounted, and which towns haven't reported. The win chance and the 500 simulated nights both come from that.
- Until results post, the forecast is the polling average minus an allowance for how Maine polls have leaned (2 points off Jackson unless you change it), with a 5-point spread, the typical size of a final Maine poll-average miss since 2018. Where early votes are coming from trims nothing off it by default: each point the early electorate leans more Democratic than at the same point in 2024, measured by town, counts for the weight you set under "Fine-tune the assumptions", and in 2022 and 2024, measured against the election two years earlier, that lean did not predict how the polls missed. The five towns only start to matter on election night.
- Scheduled jobs in the cloud pull the Maine Secretary of State's absentee voter file and a Wikipedia poll table every morning and afternoon. Maine has no live statewide results feed: the Secretary of State posts town results days after the election, so on election night this page follows the polls until those post. They write to this page's data store, which updates open copies of the page without a reload.
Track record: past races predicted from these five towns alone
| Race predicted | Baseline race | Actual | Model | Miss |
|---|
These misses flatter the model. The five towns were picked by searching for the set that best fits these same five races. Tested on races it had not seen, the same search missed by about half a point, and a town's count says less than a county's. Maine also has no official live results feed: until one is added, this page follows the polls on election night too.
What's different in 2026
The model is built on 2016–2024. Here is what could make this race break from those patterns, and how the model handles each.
| Factor | What it could do | How the model handles it |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson replaced the primary winner in July | Graham Platner won the June 9 Democratic primary with 72% of the vote, then withdrew on July 10 after a former partner accused him of rape, which he denies. Troy Jackson, a logger from Allagash and the state Senate's president from 2018 to 2024, had finished third in the governor's primary; a party convention in Bangor nominated him on July 25, 566 votes to 5. He has had about 100 days against a five-term senator. Jackson has led most polls since August, but more voters view him unfavorably than favorably (36% to 47% in a late-September co/efficient poll). | The polling average uses only Collins-versus-Jackson polls, the latest from each pollster over the three weeks before the newest one, so the earlier matchups against Platner and other Democrats are left out. Once the Secretary of State's town results post, they replace the polls. |
| Collins has beaten her polls before | In 2020 the final RealClearPolitics average had Gideon ahead by 6.5 and nearly every public poll showed Collins behind; she won by 8.6. This year's polls run from Collins +3 (New York Times and Siena, September) to Jackson +4 (Marist, the Washington Post, the University of New Hampshire), and the averages put Jackson ahead by about 2. A Beacon and Shaw poll taken October 16–20 had a tie. | Maine's final poll averages, taken the way this page takes them, missed Collins by 11.4 points in 2020; the 2020 and 2024 presidential averages leaned Democratic by 3.5 to 4, the 2018 governor's average by half a point, and the 2022 governor's average leaned Republican by 3.5. Maine's own average is 3.1 points; the default of 2 points is that average pooled with the other states' midterm-year misses, which have run about half a point. Until results post, the forecast is the polling average minus an allowance for how polls lean (2 points off Jackson unless you change it under "Fine-tune the assumptions"), with a 5-point spread. If you expect 2020 to repeat, raise the allowance. |
| Collins's crossover voters | In 2020 Biden won Maine by 9 and Collins won by 8.6: she ran almost 18 points ahead of her party's presidential candidate. Exit polls had her winning 13% of Democrats in 2020, down from 39% in 2014; a Suffolk University poll this fall puts it at 5%. The New York Times and Siena poll found 12% of Harris voters backing her, the University of Massachusetts Lowell poll 8%. She is the only Republican senator up this year in a state Harris won. | The starting point is the 2024 presidential race (Harris +6.5 in the town counts the model uses), so each bellwether's swing measures how far Collins runs ahead of Trump's 2024 showing there. To win, she needs to run about 6.5 points ahead of him statewide, well under her 2020 edge. Two What-if scenarios test this: "2020 again" and "Collins keeps half her 2020 edge." |
| The ProPublica report | In late September ProPublica reported that the FBI had looked into whether a Hawaii defense contractor's 2019 money for a group backing Collins was tied to federal contracts, and that the inquiry stalled after Trump returned to office. The FBI says the inquiry found nothing implicating Collins, who calls the story false. Jackson has made it a central attack. | Not modeled directly. If it costs Collins her crossover voters, it should show up most in the Portland group, where she ran furthest ahead of Trump in 2020 (20 points), and in Winthrop. |
| Ranked choice with two names on the ballot | Maine counts U.S. Senate general elections by ranked choice. With only Collins and Jackson listed, a second round happens only if blank ballots and write-ins keep the leader under half of the first-round ballots. Six write-in candidates have declared. In the 2024 2nd District race, about 3% blank ballots and one write-in left Golden at 48.65% and Theriault at 48.11%, and the count in Augusta took until November 15. | The forecast is the first-round margin between Collins and Jackson. Later rounds are not modeled, and neither are recounts. Margins are a share of all votes cast, so write-ins need no separate adjustment. |
| No live results on election night | Maine has no statewide results feed. Town clerks report to the Bangor Daily News, which works with Decision Desk HQ, and to the Associated Press; the Secretary of State posts its town-by-town spreadsheet days to weeks later (in 2024, by November 26). | On election night the page keeps following the polls. When the spreadsheet posts, every town's count arrives complete and replaces them. Maine doesn't report absentee and Election Day votes separately, so there's no early-to-final adjustment and the "How much more Republican Election Day votes will be" setting doesn't come into play. A bellwether without a count borrows the average swing of those with one, with wider uncertainty. Meanwhile, What-if mode lets you enter the bellwethers' margins from the news yourself. |
| Who is voting absentee | Through October 19, 127,000 absentee ballots had come back, 17% fewer than at this point in 2024 and 37% more than in 2022. Enrolled Democrats cast 53% and Republicans 20%, compared with 42% and 28% of 2024's final absentee count and 49% and 24% of 2022's. The Portland group is 8% behind 2024's pace; the rural and northern groups are 28% and 30% behind. Voters rejected a 2025 ballot question (64% to 36%) that would have required photo ID and cut back absentee voting. | Maine's file gives each town's count at the same point in 2024, so the early-vote lean is measured: it moves the poll-lean allowance by nothing per point that early votes come from more Democratic or Republican towns than at this point in 2024 (adjustable; 0 by default because in 2022 and 2024, measured against the election two years earlier, that lean did not predict how the polls missed). The "Where early votes are coming from" number above shows today's lean and how much it moves the allowance; as of October 19 the ballots came from towns 2.7 points more Democratic than in 2024. It measures where ballots come from, not voters' party enrollment. |
| A midterm with Trump in the White House | Marist (October 1–4) found 40% of Maine voters approve of Trump and 59% disapprove; in the University of Massachusetts Lowell poll 72% said the country is on the wrong track. On the other side, 92% of Collins's supporters say they'll definitely vote for her, compared with 85% of Jackson's. | Pick a turnout pattern under "Fine-tune the assumptions": "Like 2022" (rural towns vote a little more) or "Like 2018" (Portland and the coast vote more, the North less). Beyond that, turnout shows up in each town's result. |
| An open governor's race and an open 2nd District seat | Democrat Hannah Pingree leads Republican Bobby Charles by 8 to 13 points in every public poll for governor (52–40 in Marist), with independent Rick Bennett near 6%. In the 2nd District, Matt Dunlap (Democrat, of Old Town) and Paul LePage (Republican) are close in the polls for the seat Jared Golden is leaving. | The bellwethers were picked using the governor's races of 2018 and 2022 as well as presidential and Senate races, so towns that have split their tickets before are already in the tie lines. In What-if mode, enter Senate margins, not governor's race margins. |
- Town returns 2016–2024: Maine Secretary of State results spreadsheets by municipality (first-round counts; overseas ballots and townships reported without a town left out)
- Town boundaries: Census cartographic boundary files, 2024 county subdivisions
- Polling average: Wikipedia, 2026 United States Senate election in Maine (poll table)
- Absentee ballots by town: Maine Secretary of State absentee voter file (accepted ballots by the day they came back, in person or by drop box and mail; full days only, so each file counts through the day before its date). 2024 and 2022 for comparison: the final file of each year, the same number of days before Election Day
- In the news: headlines and links from Google News, GDELT and the state's own news outlets, read twice a day. Pollitrack never fetches or stores the articles themselves.