Preview only: Iowa's own model is not built yet. The county groups, map, what-if scenarios and past-race numbers on this page are Texas's, used as stand-ins. The polls and results are Iowa's.
The forecast
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Numbers as a table
Things to know
The race in two minutes
Read by Maren Holt, Pollitrack's anchor · Recorded October 24
Read the transcript
I'm Maren Holt, and this is your Pollitrack digest on the Senate race in Iowa.
The seat is open. Joni Ernst is retiring, so on November 3 Iowa picks a new senator. Iowa alternates which name comes first from county to county, so we list them alphabetically: Republican Ashley Hinson, a congresswoman from eastern Iowa, and Democrat Josh Turek, a state representative from Council Bluffs.
The polling average has Hinson ahead by 0.5 points across eleven recent polls. Pollitrack's forecast moves that 3 points toward Hinson, because Iowa polls have understated Republicans in every race since 2018, then adjusts a little for the early vote. That leaves Hinson ahead by 3, with a 73 percent chance of finishing first and Turek at 27 percent.
Most of that lead comes from how Iowa polls have missed in the past. If they miss the same way again, Hinson's lead is larger; if they are right this time, the race is close to even.
Early voting runs through November second. So far, about 208 thousand Iowans have voted early. By Pollitrack's estimate, that is 132 percent of the 2022 midterm at the same point, and 65 percent of the 2024 presidential pace.
A big early vote does not tell us who is ahead. It tells us interest is high on both sides.
On election night, Pollitrack reads five bellwether counties, each standing in for a part of the state: Cerro Gordo for the group with Des Moines, Cedar Rapids and Iowa City, Warren for the Des Moines suburbs and Ames, Iowa County for the river cities and the northwest, Boone for the small cities and farm towns, and Grundy for north-central farm country.
Polls close at 8 pm Central. As those counties report, the forecast stops leaning on polls and starts reading votes. Scroll down to explore each county, or switch to What-if mode and play out your own night. I'm Maren Holt. See you on election night.
The recording plays on the Pollitrack site. The transcript is above.
Early voting
How to read this: the line adds up early votes day by day, in person and by mail. The amber line is 2026; the gray lines are past years on the same day of early voting, so a 2026 line above them means more early votes than then. Refreshed every morning and afternoon from the Iowa Secretary of State's absentee ballot report.Numbers as a table
Numbers as a table
Cumulative early votes, in person and by mail, against the same day in 2022 and 2024.
In the news
How to read this: the headlines free news sources carry about this race, newest first, with who published each. The counts are how many stories named each candidate in the last seven days. Pollitrack reads the headlines; it does not judge them and they do not change the forecast.
The newest headlines about this race, refreshed twice a day.
This week: 76 stories name Hinson, 38 name Turek, 19 name both.
- Rep. Ashley Hinson on support for Ukraine
- ‘I'm not afraid to question somebody in power’: Iowa Senate candidate Hinson
- Rep. Ashley Hinson on war in Iran
- 'This Week' Transcript 10-25-26: Rep. Ashley Hinson, Josh Turek & Gov. Wes Moore
- Video 1-on-1 with Rep. Ashley Hinson
- Ashley Hinson listens to parents, staff and youth addiction survivors at recovery facility
Five county groups
How to read this: every county joins the group whose bellwether county it has moved most like since 2016. The color is the group's margin in the view you pick: where its bellwether lands if the polls are right, its 2024 President result, or, on election night, how far each county has shifted since 2024. Darker means a bigger lead: 15 points or more, 5 to 15, or under 5. Tap a group or a county to light up its group.
Every county joins the bellwether it has voted most like since 2016.
Pick a group to light up its counties.
500 possible election nights
How to read this: the forecast is replayed 500 times, each with a different random draw of its uncertainty. Each dot is five possible nights, stacked by the statewide margin in 1-point steps: blue dots are Turek wins and red dots are Hinson wins. The more dots on one side of the tie line, the likelier that candidate wins.
The forecast replayed 500 times, with every county group free to miss.
Wins per 100 nights · each dot = 5 nights
The five bellwethers
How to read this: each row is one county, on a scale from a big Hinson lead (left) to a big Turek lead (right). The amber mark is the tie line: if every part of Iowa shifted as much as this county did, a result there would mean a statewide tie. A dot to the right of it is good news for Turek, and to the left for Hinson; the colored bar shows how far each county is from the tie line, and toward whom. The gray ticks are the 2024 and 2018 results. The dot is where the polling average points until results post, then the real result. Drag a dot, tap anywhere on a row, or use the arrow keys to try your own numbers; the dot clicks onto the marks when you get close.
Drag a dot, or pick a scenario, to see who wins Iowa.
Fine-tune the assumptions
County guides
Why each county was picked and what to watch.
Biggest vote source
Cerro GordoTie line: Turek +1.6 · a county Trump won by 12
- 2024 President
- Trump +11.6
- 2022 Senate
- Grassley +9.5
- 2018 Governor
- Reynolds +3.4
- Compared with Iowa
- from 0.7 points more Republican (2018) to 7.4 more Democratic (2020 Senate)
Why this county
Cerro Gordo County (Mason City) leads the group with Iowa's biggest vote sources: Polk (Des Moines), Linn (Cedar Rapids), Johnson (Iowa City) and Dallas, plus four small north Iowa counties, about 34% of the statewide vote. It isn't a big city itself. The model's search picked it because, together with the other four bellwethers, it fit past statewide results best: 0.6 points off on average. Its own swings run bigger than the cities': from the 2020 Senate race to the 2022 governor's race it moved 15.5 points toward Republicans while its group moved 6.4. This group's swing has also strayed furthest from the rest of Iowa's, about 6 points in past races, so the forecast treats it as the most uncertain group until Cerro Gordo reports.
What to look for
The tie line here is Turek +2: a result above it favors Turek, below it Hinson. Greenfield won it by 0.8 in 2020 and lost Iowa by 6.6; Hubbell lost it by 3.4 and lost Iowa by 2.7. To watch the cities directly, switch this row to Polk (tie line Turek +24.0; Harris won it by 10.8) or Linn (Turek +23.1; Harris +9.9). As stand-ins they'd have missed by 1.7 and 1.6 points in past races, but they are where the votes are. Linn is Hinson's home: she lives in Marion and was a Cedar Rapids TV reporter and anchor for more than a decade. The page has no home-county setting for Iowa, so a strong Hinson night in Linn may say more about her than about the cities.
When results come in
Iowa counts early in-person and mail ballots together as "absentee" ballots, on a separate board that can't post anything until it has counted all of them; the law staffs it to finish by 10 pm. In 2022's Senate race Cerro Gordo's absentee votes went Franken +16.5 and its final count Grassley +9.5, a 26-point gap; in 2018 the gap was 12. If only its absentee votes are in, the model expects Cerro Gordo to move about 22 points toward Hinson, plus the Election Day setting. Polk's and Linn's gaps have averaged 28 and 25 points. The order isn't fixed: in 2024 Linn posted Election Day precincts first, around 8:30 pm, and its absentee count ran to almost midnight.
Signals so far
As of October 21, registered Democrats had returned 52% of Cerro Gordo's absentee ballots and Republicans 29%, compared with 47% and 34% across all of 2022's absentee voting and 36% and 38% in 2024's. Polk (61% Democratic) and Linn (62%) show the same pattern. In June's primary, Democrats cast 46% of Cerro Gordo's Senate primary votes; statewide Turek beat Wahls 62.6% to 37.3%.
College-town and exurb test
WarrenTie line: Hinson +7.4 · the suburbs south of Des Moines
- 2024 President
- Trump +20.6
- 2022 Senate
- Grassley +18.6
- 2018 Governor
- Reynolds +7.7
- Compared with Iowa
- 5–9 points more Republican, every race since 2016
Why this county
Warren County (Indianola, Norwalk) is suburban and exurban Des Moines. Its group pairs it with Story County (Ames, home of Iowa State) and six smaller counties running from the Des Moines exurbs to the southwest corner (Madison, Jones, Mills, Page, Fremont, Adams), about 7.5% of the statewide vote. Warren has stayed 5 to 9 points more Republican than Iowa in every statewide race since 2016, so its swing is a steady read on suburban voters who aren't in the big cities.
What to look for
The tie line here is Hinson +7: a wider Hinson margin favors Hinson, a narrower one Turek. Reynolds won it by 7.7 in 2018 and the state by 2.7. At Hinson +15 or more, Hinson is likely ahead; well under 7, Turek is. Story is the college-town alternative: tie line Turek +23.5 (Harris won it by 10.3). As the stand-in it would have missed by 1.2 points in past races, against 0.6 for Warren, partly because student turnout swings Story more than its neighbors.
When results come in
Warren's absentee votes have been far more Democratic than its final count: in 2022's Senate race they went Franken +15.0, and the final count was Grassley +18.6, a 34-point gap. If only its absentee votes are in, the model expects Warren to move about 25 points toward Hinson, plus the Election Day setting. Story's gap has averaged 26.
Signals so far
By October 21 Warren had already returned 61% as many absentee ballots as in all of 2022, the fastest pace of the five bellwethers (the others were at 46% to 48%). Registered Democrats returned 47% of them and Republicans 35%, close to 2022's mix (49% and 34%). On October 20 the county auditor said 613 voters had been mailed a second absentee ballot by mistake; both copies are flagged so only one counts. Democrats cast 42% of Warren's Senate primary votes in June.
Best overall predictor
IowaTie line: Hinson +14.5 · leads the biggest group, from the Mississippi to the Missouri
- 2024 President
- Trump +27.7
- 2022 Senate
- Grassley +30.8
- 2018 Governor
- Reynolds +20.1
- Compared with Iowa
- 14–19 points more Republican since 2016
Why this county
Iowa County (Marengo, Williamsburg, the Amana Colonies) sits between Cedar Rapids and Iowa City. It leads 34 counties with about 34% of the statewide vote: the Mississippi River cities (Scott/Davenport, Dubuque, Black Hawk/Waterloo), the Missouri River cities (Pottawattamie/Council Bluffs, Turek's home, and Woodbury/Sioux City) and the deep-red northwest (Sioux, Lyon). Of the five groups, this one's swing has stayed closest to the rest of the state's, about 2 points off in past races. Subtract 16.6 from Iowa County's margin and you'd never have missed the statewide result by more than 2.2 points.
What to look for
The tie line here is Hinson +14.5: a wider Hinson margin favors Hinson, a narrower one Turek. Reynolds won it by 20.1 in 2018, Grassley by 30.8 in 2022. Well under 15, Turek is likely ahead; over 25, which looks like 2022, Hinson is. Black Hawk (Waterloo) is an excellent alternate with six times the votes: tie line Turek +14.4 (Harris won it by 1.2), and as the stand-in it would have missed by 0.61 points in past races, as good as Iowa County's 0.63. Turek's home county, Pottawattamie, is in this group but isn't a stand-in; he won his Council Bluffs House seat by 6 votes after a 2022 recount and by 5 points in 2024.
When results come in
Iowa County cast about 9,600 votes in 2024, so it has little to count. Its absentee votes have still run far more Democratic than its final count: in 2022's Senate race they were close to even (Grassley +0.3), and the final was Grassley +30.8. If only its absentee votes are in, the model expects about 24 points of movement toward Hinson, plus the Election Day setting. Black Hawk's gap has averaged 20.
Signals so far
As of October 21, registered Democrats had returned 40% of Iowa County's absentee ballots and Republicans 39%. The Republican share is down from 42% across 2022's absentee voting and 47% in 2024's. Democrats cast only 32% of the county's Senate primary votes in June. Trump's October 22 rally for Hinson was set for Sioux City, in this group; he's due back in Iowa November 1.
Swing-town test
BooneTie line: Hinson +8.2 · small-town Iowa that swung hardest to Trump
- 2024 President
- Trump +21.5
- 2022 Senate
- Grassley +16.6
- 2018 Governor
- Reynolds +2.4
- Compared with Iowa
- from 0.3 points more Democratic (2018) to 8.3 more Republican (2024)
Why this county
Boone County (Boone, just west of Ames) leads 45 counties of small cities and farm towns, about 22% of the statewide vote: Clinton, Jasper (Newton), Des Moines County (Burlington), Webster (Fort Dodge), Lee, Wapello (Ottumwa) and dozens of rural counties. From 2016 to 2024 this group moved 9.9 points toward Republicans in the presidential race, while Iowa as a whole moved 3.8. Boone went from matching the state in 2018 (Reynolds won it by 2.4 and Iowa by 2.7) to 8.3 points more Republican in 2024. Turek's pitch on farm costs and tariffs is aimed here.
What to look for
The tie line here is Hinson +8: a wider Hinson margin favors Hinson, a narrower one Turek. Republicans won it by 2.4 in 2018, 13.2 in the 2020 Senate race and 16.6 in 2022. Above Hinson +15, Hinson is likely ahead; well under 8, Turek is. Jasper (tie line Hinson +14.3) and Poweshiek (Grinnell, Hinson +3.7) are alternates; either would have missed by about 0.7 points as the stand-in, close to Boone's 0.6.
When results come in
In 2022's Senate race Boone's absentee votes went Franken +10.3, and the final count was Grassley +16.6, a 27-point gap; in 2018 it was 9. If only its absentee votes are in, the model expects Boone to move about 21 points toward Hinson, plus the Election Day setting. Jasper's gap has averaged 28.
Signals so far
As of October 21, registered Democrats had returned 46% of Boone's absentee ballots and Republicans 36%, the same mix as 2022 (47% and 36%) and nothing like 2024 (33% and 42%). Democrats cast 41% of Boone's Senate primary votes in June. The harvest is running about 20 points behind its five-year pace after a wet September, and state officials urged farmers on October 19 to vote early.
Farm-country test
GrundyTie line: Hinson +28.5 · four farm counties, 2% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Trump +41.7
- 2022 Senate
- Grassley +45.5
- 2018 Governor
- Reynolds +33.2
- Compared with Iowa
- 28–34 points more Republican since 2016
Why this county
Grundy County (Grundy Center), west of Waterloo, leads the smallest group: four farm counties (Dickinson, Buena Vista, Cherokee and Grundy) with 1.9% of the statewide vote. It measures the farm vote, where crop prices, tariffs and a late harvest are the issues. A 5-point move here changes the statewide margin by only about a tenth of a point, so it matters mostly as an early signal for the rural counties in the Boone and Iowa County groups.
What to look for
The tie line here is Hinson +28.5: a wider Hinson margin favors Hinson, a narrower one Turek. Reynolds won it by 33.2 in 2018, Trump by 41.7 and Grassley by 45.5. A Hinson margin under 33 would mean farm country is moving toward Turek; 40 or more means it hasn't moved. Dickinson (Okoboji, tie line Hinson +26.7) and Cherokee (Hinson +32.4) are alternates.
When results come in
Grundy's absentee voters lean Republican too, so its early-to-final gap is the smallest of the five: its 2022 Senate absentee votes went Grassley +22.0 and the final count Grassley +45.5. If only its absentee votes are in, the model expects about 16 points of movement toward Hinson, plus the Election Day setting.
Signals so far
As of October 21, registered Republicans had returned 54% of Grundy's absentee ballots and Democrats 30%, the same as 2022's mix (54% and 32%); in 2024 it was 61% and 21%. Democrats cast 27% of Grundy's Senate primary votes in June. Iowa importers paid an estimated $1.7 billion in tariffs through June; Turek blames tariffs for squeezed farm margins, and Hinson voted with Iowa's other House Republicans against overturning the tariffs on Canada.
Timeline
When results usually arrive, Central time.
Early voting. Iowa's 20-day window, in person or by mail. Watch each group's turnout in the early voting tracker above; it follows the Secretary of State's absentee report, which is saved by hand on business days, so it can lag a day. Through October 21, 167,251 ballots were back, 45% of 2022's whole absentee total. Registered Democrats returned 52% of them and Republicans 31%, like 2022 (51% and 33%) and unlike 2024 (38% and 40%). Mail ballots count only if the county auditor has them by 8 pm on Election Day.
Polls close everywhere in Iowa. The first precincts were posting by 8:11 pm in 2024. Each county's absentee board can't post until it has counted every absentee ballot, including ones dropped off up to 8 pm, so a county's first number may be its absentee votes or its Election Day precincts. In 2024 Linn posted precincts around 8:30 pm and its absentee count ran to almost midnight. The page marks counties with only absentee votes counted and expects them to move a long way toward Hinson.
Most counties have both kinds of votes in. The Associated Press called Iowa for Trump at 9:40 pm in 2024 and the Grassley race around 10 pm in 2022; a close race will take longer. Keep the absentee gap in mind: in 2022 Iowa's absentee votes went Franken +19.7, and the final count was Grassley +12.2.
The last absentee batches and close races. Absentee boards are staffed to finish by 10 pm; a county that missed that in the last general election has to start counting the day before, which should apply to Linn this year. In 2024 the close 3rd District race was called at 11:18 pm, and at midnight the 1st District was 413 votes apart with 97% counted.
Late ballots and the county canvass. Military and overseas ballots postmarked by Election Day count if they arrive by noon Monday, November 9, and provisional ballots are settled that week. County boards certify their results on Tuesday, November 10. The changes are usually small: in 2024 a Cerro Gordo supervisor race flipped after 41 provisional and late-arriving ballots were reviewed. If the race is within a point when you go to bed, the forecast's likely range is the honest answer.
Recount window and state certification. If the margin is under 0.15% (roughly 2,000 votes at midterm turnout), the trailing candidate has until 5 pm on November 11 to ask for a statewide recount. In 2024 the 1st District's 799-vote race was recounted and called on November 27. The state board certifies the results by November 30.
Times are Central time. Counties post early votes first, then Election Day results. The method in six steps, then its track record on past races.
- All 99 counties are grouped by how they have moved relative to the statewide margin across eight statewide races (2016–2024). Each group is tied to one bellwether county.
- When a bellwether reports, its change from its 2024 President margin (Harris vs. Trump) is applied to every county in its group, and each group is weighted by its share of the vote.
- Early-vote readings are moved toward the expected final count. That uses each county's 2022–2024 early-versus-final record plus the 2026 Election Day tilt, scaled by how much is still uncounted. Counties not yet in borrow the average change of those that are, pulled slightly toward the polls.
- Uncertainty combines the minimum uncertainty, how much of each county is still uncounted, and which counties haven't reported. The win chance and the 500 simulated nights both come from that.
- Until results post, the forecast is the polling average minus an allowance for how Iowa polls have leaned (3 points off Turek unless you change it), with a 5-point spread, the typical size of a final Iowa poll-average miss since 2018. Where early votes are coming from trims nothing off it by default: each point the early electorate leans more Democratic than at the same point in 2024, measured by county, counts for the weight you set under "Fine-tune the assumptions", and in 2022 and 2024, measured against the election two years earlier, that lean did not predict how the polls missed. The five counties only start to matter on election night.
- Scheduled jobs in the cloud pull the Iowa Secretary of State's absentee ballot report and a Wikipedia poll table every morning and afternoon. On election night they check the Iowa Secretary of State's results every few minutes. They write to this page's data store, which updates open copies of the page without a reload.
Track record: past races predicted from these five counties alone
| Race predicted | Baseline race | Actual | Model | Miss |
|---|
These misses flatter the model. The five counties were picked by searching for the set that best fits these same six races. Tested on races it had not seen, the same search missed by about 1.5 points, more than in Texas or Georgia, because Iowa's counties swung unevenly from 2016 to 2024. If a tie falls inside the likely range, treat the race as a toss-up.
What's different in 2026
The model is built on 2016–2024. Here is what could make this race break from those patterns, and how the model handles each.
| Factor | What it could do | How the model handles it |
|---|---|---|
| Absentee votes are far more Democratic than Election Day votes | Iowa counts early in-person and mail ballots together as absentee votes, and they lean heavily Democratic. In 2022 Iowa's absentee votes went Franken +19.7, and the final count was Grassley +12.2, a 32-point gap; in 2018 Hubbell won the absentee votes by 10.4 and lost by 2.7. A first batch that shows Turek well ahead can still end in a clear Hinson win. This year's absentee voters look like 2022's (52% registered Democrats and 31% Republicans through October 21, against 51% and 33% in 2022), not 2024's, when Republicans pushed early voting and outvoted Democrats 40% to 38%. | Each county gets its own expected change from absentee votes to the final count, from the 2018 governor's race and the 2022 governor's and Senate races: about 21 to 25 points toward the Republican for four of the bellwethers and 16 for Grundy. On top of that comes the "How much more Republican Election Day votes will be" setting, which you can change. 2018's gaps were smaller than 2022's, so if this year looks like 2022, the real gap may be bigger than the county records suggest; move that setting right. Counties with only absentee votes counted also get wider uncertainty. |
| Counties don't all post absentee votes first | Each county's absentee board can't post until it has counted every absentee ballot, and the law staffs it to finish by 10 pm. In 2024 Linn County posted its Election Day precincts around 8:30 pm and its absentee count ran to almost midnight. | The live data marks a county as absentee-only when it has no Election Day votes yet. A county that has posted its Election Day precincts but not its absentee votes is not caught: the page treats it as nearly complete, so it will look much more Republican than it will end up. If a big county's absentee batch is missing late in the night, trust the forecast less. |
| An open seat: Hinson against Turek | Ernst announced in September 2025 that she wouldn't run again. Hinson has represented eastern Iowa in Congress since 2021, lives in Marion (Linn County) and was a Cedar Rapids TV reporter and anchor; Trump endorsed her, and she beat Jim Carlin 74% to 26% in June. Turek, a state representative from Council Bluffs and a two-time Paralympic gold medalist in wheelchair basketball, beat Zach Wahls 62.6% to 37.3%. He won his House seat by 6 votes after a recount in 2022. | There's no home-county setting for Iowa. Linn, Hinson's home, is one of the stand-ins for the big-city group; if you pick it, any home boost for her is counted as a swing for the whole group. Turek's Pottawattamie County is in the Iowa County group but isn't a stand-in. |
| A midterm with Trump in the White House | Trump's approval among likely Iowa voters is 44% to 53% (Marist, October 8–11), yet the same poll had Republicans ahead 50% to 47% for the U.S. House. About 192,000 Iowans voted in June's Democratic primary, up from about 159,000 in 2022; Republican primary turnout rose from about 199,000 to 212,000. Trump's rally for Hinson was set for Sioux City on October 22, with another Iowa visit on November 1. | Pick a turnout pattern under "Fine-tune the assumptions" ("Like 2022" or "Like 2018"). Beyond that, turnout shows up in each county's result: where Democrats turn out, Turek's margin is bigger. |
| Iowa polls have leaned toward Democrats | The Des Moines Register's final Selzer poll in 2024 had Harris ahead by 3; Trump won by 13.2, and Selzer has since stopped election polling. Final polling averages (270toWin) understated the Republican by about 6 points in the 2020 Senate race (Ernst +0.4 against a 6.6 result), 2 in the 2022 Senate race (Grassley +10.3 against 12.2) and 8.5 in the 2024 presidential race (Trump +4.7 against 13.2). This year's average is close to a tie, with recent polls running from Hinson +3 to Turek +4. | Until results post, the forecast uses the polling average with an allowance of 3 points off Turek for poll lean and a 5-point spread. Given this record, you may want to change "How far off the polls may be." The early-vote adjustment to that allowance is not applied yet in Iowa, because the turnout feed has only 2024's final absentee totals, not counts from the same point in 2024. On election night the real county results replace the polls. |
| Voters splitting their ballots | Iowa also elects a governor, an open seat: Democrat Rob Sand against Republican Zach Lahn, who narrowly beat Trump-endorsed Randy Feenstra in the primary. Marist had Sand up 7 and Turek up 3 among likely voters, and independents backing Sand 67% to 26% but Turek only 51% to 31%. | The starting point is the 2024 presidential race, so each county's swing is measured against Trump and Harris, not against another Senate race. In What-if mode, enter Senate margins, not governor's race margins. |
| Farm country: tariffs and a late harvest | Iowa importers paid an estimated $1.7 billion in tariffs through June. Turek blames tariffs and the war in Iran for squeezed farm margins; Hinson voted with Iowa's other House Republicans against overturning the tariffs on Canada. The corn and soybean harvest is about 20 points behind its five-year pace after a wet September, which could push some farmers' votes to Election Day. | Boone's swing is applied to 45 small-city and farm counties (22% of the vote), and Grundy's to four deep-red farm counties (2%). Rural northwest Iowa (Sioux, Lyon) follows Iowa County. A late harvest that shifts farm votes to Election Day is part of what the Election Day setting covers. |
| Recounts and late ballots | Mail ballots must reach the county auditor by 8 pm on Election Day; only military and overseas ballots can arrive later (by noon November 9). A statewide recount can be requested if the margin is under 0.15%, by 5 pm the day after the county canvass (November 11). 2025 laws put county auditors in charge of recount boards and let the Secretary of State take one over. | Not modeled. Provisional ballots, late military ballots and recounts aren't in the election-night forecast. They usually change little: the 2024 1st District recount moved a 799-vote margin by one vote. |
| A Libertarian on the ballot | Thomas Laehn is on the ballot and had about 2% in Suffolk's October poll. | Margins are measured as a share of all votes cast, so the third-party share needs no separate adjustment. |
- County returns 2016–2022, with each county's absentee and Election Day split: OpenElections Iowa (transcribed from the Iowa Secretary of State's canvass; statewide totals checked against the certified results)
- County returns for the 2024 presidential race: Wikipedia, 2024 United States presidential election in Iowa (county table; statewide totals match the certified canvass)
- County boundaries: us-atlas (Census cartographic boundaries)
- Early-vote turnout: the Iowa Secretary of State's absentee ballot report by county and party
- Polling average: Wikipedia, 2026 United States Senate election in Iowa (poll table)
- Election-night results: Iowa Secretary of State election-night results
- In the news: headlines and links from Google News, GDELT and the state's own news outlets, read twice a day. Pollitrack never fetches or stores the articles themselves.