Preview only: New Mexico's own model is not built yet. The county groups, map, what-if scenarios and past-race numbers on this page are Texas's, used as stand-ins. The polls and results are New Mexico's.
The forecast
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Numbers as a table
Things to know
The race in two minutes
Read by Maren Holt, Pollitrack's anchor · Recorded October 25
Read the transcript
I'm Maren Holt, and this is your Pollitrack digest on the Senate race in New Mexico.
On November 3, New Mexico decides who holds this seat for the next six years. On the ballot, in the order New Mexico's drawing set: Democrat Ben Ray Luján, the senator seeking a second term, and Republican Larry Marker of Roswell, who became his party's nominee as a write-in after no Republican qualified for the primary ballot.
The polling average has Luján ahead by 16.3 points across three polls. New Mexico polls have tended to understate Democrats, so Pollitrack's forecast moves that half a point toward Luján. That leaves Luján ahead by 16.8, with a better than ninety-nine in a hundred chance of finishing first.
With only three polls, the average rests on little data. But a gap this wide would take a historic polling miss to close.
Absentee ballots went out and early voting opened on October 6, and early voting ends on Saturday, October 31. Pollitrack does not track New Mexico's early vote, so the forecast rests on the polls until results arrive.
On election night, Pollitrack reads five bellwether counties, each standing in for a part of the state: Sandoval, north of Albuquerque, for the biggest group, with Albuquerque and Santa Fe; McKinley, home to Gallup and much of the Navajo Nation, for the Native and border vote; Mora for the Hispanic villages of the north; Curry, home to Clovis and Cannon Air Force Base, for the military town; and Catron for oil and ranch country.
Polls close at 7 pm Mountain. Scroll down to explore each county, or switch to What-if mode and play out your own night. I'm Maren Holt. See you on election night.
The recording plays on the Pollitrack site. The transcript is above.
Early voting
How to read this: the line adds up early votes day by day, in person and by mail. The amber line is 2026; the gray lines are past years on the same day of early voting, so a 2026 line above them means more early votes than then. Refreshed every morning and afternoon from the New Mexico Secretary of State's early-vote counts.Numbers as a table
Numbers as a table
Cumulative early votes, in person and by mail, against the same day in 2022 and 2024.
In the news
How to read this: the headlines free news sources carry about this race, newest first, with who published each. The counts are how many stories named each candidate in the last seven days. Pollitrack reads the headlines; it does not judge them and they do not change the forecast.
The newest headlines about this race, refreshed twice a day.
This week: 2 stories name Luján, 1 names Marker, 0 name both.
- New Mexico ruling party isnt quite as lazy as Republicans
- New Mexico Elections: Who’s Leading In Prediction Markets?
- Sen. Luján to host presidential hopefuls Saturday at ‘matanza’ rally
- Ben Ray Luján to host ‘Matanza Rally’ for 2028 hopefuls
- Luján, senators demand broadcasters repay taxpayers for Trump ads
- Poll: Luján leads Marker by 16 points
Five county groups
How to read this: every county joins the group whose bellwether county it has moved most like since 2016. The color is the group's margin in the view you pick: where its bellwether lands if the polls are right, its 2024 President result, or, on election night, how far each county has shifted since 2024. Darker means a bigger lead: 15 points or more, 5 to 15, or under 5. Tap a group or a county to light up its group.
Every county joins the bellwether it has voted most like since 2016.
Pick a group to light up its counties.
500 possible election nights
How to read this: the forecast is replayed 500 times, each with a different random draw of its uncertainty. Each dot is five possible nights, stacked by the statewide margin in 1-point steps: blue dots are Luján wins and red dots are Marker wins. The more dots on one side of the tie line, the likelier that candidate wins.
The forecast replayed 500 times, with every county group free to miss.
Wins per 100 nights · each dot = 5 nights
The five bellwethers
How to read this: each row is one county, on a scale from a big Marker lead (left) to a big Luján lead (right). The amber mark is the tie line: if every part of New Mexico shifted as much as this county did, a result there would mean a statewide tie. A dot to the right of it is good news for Luján, and to the left for Marker; the colored bar shows how far each county is from the tie line, and toward whom. The gray ticks are the 2024 and 2020 results. The dot is where the polling average points until results post, then the real result. Drag a dot, tap anywhere on a row, or use the arrow keys to try your own numbers; the dot clicks onto the marks when you get close.
Drag a dot, or pick a scenario, to see who wins New Mexico.
Fine-tune the assumptions
County guides
Why each county was picked and what to watch.
Oil and ranch country test
CatronTie line: Marker +56.2 · stands in for the Permian Basin, San Juan, the eastern plains and the southern mountains, 19% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Trump +50.2
- 2022 Governor
- Ronchetti +50.5
- 2020 Senate
- Ronchetti +49.9
- Compared with New Mexico
- 52–59 points more Republican in every race since 2016
Why this county
Catron County (Reserve and Quemado, the state's largest county by area and one of its smallest by vote) leads the most counties: 13 that cast 19.2% of the 2024 vote, which Trump won by 41.3. They are San Juan (Farmington) in the northwest, the oil counties of the Permian Basin (Lea, Eddy and Chaves), Otero (Alamogordo), Lincoln, Torrance, and the ranch counties of the eastern plains from Union to De Baca. Catron has tracked the group's swing most closely in the six races the model was tested on; Roosevelt (0.2 points off on average) and Lincoln (0.3) come close, and San Juan and Torrance are available as stand-ins.
What to look for
The tie line here is Marker +56.2: a wider Marker margin favors Marker, a narrower one Luján. Ronchetti won Catron by 49.9 in 2020 while losing the state to Luján by 6.1. Catron casts about 2,000 votes, so a few hundred ballots move its margin; San Juan, the group's big county, has a tie line of Marker +37.7, and Lea's is Marker +67.6.
When results come in
All of New Mexico closes at 7 pm Mountain. The page reads Catron's count from the Secretary of State's results site as it posts; to watch San Juan instead, pick it as the group's county.
Signals so far
Marker won June's Republican primary as a write-in: Catron cast 224 write-in votes for him and 264 votes in the Democratic Senate primary. For scale: Catron cast 2,022 votes in the 2022 governor's race and San Juan 40,054.
Military town test
CurryTie line: Marker +48.6 · stands in for Clovis and Cannon Air Force Base, 2% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Trump +42.6
- 2022 Governor
- Ronchetti +44.7
- 2020 Senate
- Ronchetti +39.1
- Compared with New Mexico
- 45–54 points more Republican in every race since 2016
Why this county
Curry County (Clovis, on the Texas line, home of Cannon Air Force Base) is a group of its own: it cast 1.6% of the 2024 vote, which Trump won by 42.6. It earns its place because its swing from race to race has differed from its neighbors' in a way that helped the model's backtests: with Curry as a separate group, the five-county set misses the six tested races by 0.2 points on average. Every point of swing here is worth less than two hundredths of a point statewide, so it matters most as a check on the other groups.
What to look for
The tie line here is Marker +48.6: a wider Marker margin favors Marker, a narrower one Luján. Ronchetti won Curry by 39.1 in 2020 and by 44.7 in 2022; Trump won it by 42.6 in 2024.
When results come in
The page reads Curry's count from the Secretary of State's results site as it posts. Curry has no stand-in: if it hasn't reported, the page widens its range by the group's usual miss.
Signals so far
Curry cast 776 write-in votes for Marker in June's Republican primary and 1,079 votes in the Democratic Senate primary. For scale: it cast 10,248 votes in the 2022 governor's race.
Native and border vote test
McKinleyTie line: Luján +18.5 · stands in for Gallup and the Navajo Nation, Las Cruces, Taos and the border, 15% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Harris +24.5
- 2022 Governor
- Lujan Grisham +36.5
- 2020 Senate
- Luján +33.5
- Compared with New Mexico
- 27–31 points more Democratic through 2022, 18.5 in 2024's presidential race
Why this county
McKinley County (Gallup and much of the Navajo Nation's New Mexico land, about three quarters Native American) leads five counties that cast 14.9% of the 2024 vote, which Harris won by 15.3: Doña Ana (Las Cruces), Taos, Luna (Deming) on the border and Guadalupe. What they share is the direction they moved in 2024: less Democratic against the state than in any earlier race. McKinley has tracked the group's swing most closely; Doña Ana and Taos (0.6 points off on average) come close, and Luna and Guadalupe are available as stand-ins.
What to look for
The tie line here is Luján +18.5: a result above it favors Luján, below it Marker. Luján won McKinley by 33.5 in 2020, Lujan Grisham by 36.5 in 2022, and Harris by 24.5 in 2024. Whether that 2024 drop holds in a midterm is the question this group answers. Doña Ana's tie line is Luján +3.8.
When results come in
The page reads McKinley's count from the Secretary of State's results site as it posts; to watch Doña Ana instead, pick it as the group's county.
Signals so far
In June's primary McKinley cast 8,191 votes in the Democratic Senate race (Luján 87%) and 200 write-in votes for Marker. For scale: McKinley cast 19,481 votes in the 2022 governor's race and Doña Ana 57,724.
Hispanic north test
MoraTie line: Luján +11.3 · stands in for Rio Arriba, San Miguel, Mora, Socorro and Hidalgo, 4% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Harris +17.3
- 2022 Governor
- Lujan Grisham +30.6
- 2020 Senate
- Luján +26.7
- Compared with New Mexico
- From 28 points more Democratic in 2016 to 11 in 2024
Why this county
Mora County (the villages of the Sangre de Cristo foothills, northeast of Santa Fe) leads five counties that cast 4.2% of the 2024 vote, which Harris won by 15.3: Rio Arriba (Española), San Miguel (Las Vegas), Socorro and Hidalgo in the bootheel. Most are old Hispanic counties that have moved toward the Republicans against the state since 2016. Mora has tracked the group's swing most closely; San Miguel (0.2 points off on average) and Rio Arriba (0.3) come close, and Hidalgo and Socorro are available as stand-ins.
What to look for
The tie line here is Luján +11.3: a result above it favors Luján, below it Marker. Luján won Mora by 26.7 in 2020; Harris won it by 17.3 in 2024. Rio Arriba's tie line is Luján +13.4 and San Miguel's Luján +21.9.
When results come in
Mora casts about 2,500 votes, so it can report in one batch. The page reads its count as it posts; to watch Rio Arriba or San Miguel instead, pick it as the group's county.
Signals so far
In June's primary Mora cast 1,397 votes in the Democratic Senate race (Luján 87%) and 61 write-in votes for Marker. For scale: Mora cast 2,457 votes in the 2022 governor's race and Rio Arriba 12,961.
Biggest vote source
SandovalTie line: Marker +0.2 · stands in for Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Los Alamos and the Rio Grande valley, 60% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Harris +5.8
- 2022 Governor
- Lujan Grisham +2.4
- 2020 Senate
- Luján +1.5
- Compared with New Mexico
- 0.2–5.3 points more Republican in every race since 2016
Why this county
Sandoval County (Rio Rancho and Bernalillo, north of Albuquerque) leads the biggest group: nine counties that cast 60.1% of the 2024 vote, which Harris won by 19.5. Besides Sandoval they are Bernalillo (Albuquerque), Santa Fe, Los Alamos, Valencia (Los Lunas), Cibola (Grants), Grant (Silver City), Sierra and Colfax. Every point of swing here is worth six tenths of a point statewide. Sandoval has voted a few points to the right of the state in every race since 2016, close enough to work as a bellwether on its own. Bernalillo (0.7 points off on average) comes close, and Valencia, Cibola and Sierra are available as stand-ins.
What to look for
The tie line here is Marker +0.2: a Luján lead or a Marker margin under 0.2 favors Luján, a wider Marker margin favors Marker. Luján won Sandoval by 1.5 in 2020 while winning the state by 6.1. Bernalillo's tie line is Luján +15.0 and Santa Fe's Luján +42.9.
When results come in
The page reads Sandoval's count from the Secretary of State's results site as it posts; to watch Bernalillo, the state's biggest county, instead, pick it as the group's county.
Signals so far
In June's primary Sandoval cast 16,894 votes in the Democratic Senate race (Luján 86%) and 3,191 write-in votes for Marker. For scale: Sandoval cast 61,235 votes in the 2022 governor's race and Bernalillo 245,300.
Timeline
When results usually arrive, Mountain time.
Absentee and early voting. County clerks began mailing absentee ballots and opened early voting on October 6; more early-voting sites opened on October 17, and early voting ends on Saturday, October 31. The deadline to ask for a mail ballot was October 20, and mail ballots must reach the county clerk by 7 pm on Election Day. Voters can register and vote on the same day. By October 16 about 63,000 had voted, nearly 37,000 of them registered Democrats, 17,000 Republicans and 9,000 others, by the Secretary of State's count reported by Source NM. This page doesn't track the early vote.
Polls close statewide at 7 pm Mountain. Anyone in line by 7 pm can still vote. Counties post their counts to the Secretary of State's results site through the evening, and this page reads each county's count every few minutes. Judge the night by the bellwethers against their tie lines (Sandoval's is Marker +0.2), not by the running total.
County canvass. Provisional ballots are checked and counted, and each county's canvassing board approves its results: within 10 days for most counties, 13 for the largest.
State certification. The State Canvassing Board certifies the results in late November (November 25 in 2024). A statewide race decided by less than a quarter of a percent goes to an automatic recount (§ 1-14-24 NMSA 1978). The page doesn't model a recount.
Times are Mountain time. Counties post their counts to the Secretary of State's results site through the evening, a county's precincts filling in as they finish. The method in six steps, then its track record on past races.
- All 33 counties are grouped by how they have moved relative to the statewide margin across seven statewide races (2016–2024). Each group is tied to one bellwether county.
- When a bellwether reports, its change from its 2024 President margin (Harris vs. Trump) is applied to every county in its group, and each group is weighted by its share of the vote.
- Early-vote readings are moved toward the expected final count. That uses only the 2026 Election Day tilt (New Mexico doesn't publish past results split by vote type), scaled by how much is still uncounted. Counties not yet in borrow the average change of those that are, pulled slightly toward the polls.
- Uncertainty combines the minimum uncertainty, how much of each county is still uncounted, and which counties haven't reported. The win chance and the 500 simulated nights both come from that.
- Until results post, the forecast is the polling average minus an allowance for how New Mexico polls have leaned (0.5 points off Marker unless you change it), with a 5-point spread, the typical size of a final New Mexico poll-average miss since 2018. Where early votes are coming from trims nothing off it by default: each point the early electorate leans more Democratic than at the same point in 2024, measured by county, counts for the weight you set under "Fine-tune the assumptions", and in 2022 and 2024, measured against the election two years earlier, that lean did not predict how the polls missed. The five counties only start to matter on election night.
- Scheduled jobs in the cloud pull a Wikipedia poll table every morning and afternoon and, on election night, the Secretary of State's county results every few minutes, and write to this page's data store, which updates open copies of the page without a reload. New Mexico's early-vote counts are not read.
Track record: past races predicted from these five counties alone
| Race predicted | Baseline race | Actual | Model | Miss |
|---|
These misses flatter the model. The five counties were picked by searching for the set that best fits these same six races. Tested on races it had not seen, the same search missed by about 1.6 points.
What's different in 2026
The model is built on 2016–2024. Here is what could make this race break from those patterns, and how the model handles each.
| Factor | What it could do | How the model handles it |
|---|---|---|
| An incumbent and a write-in nominee | Ben Ray Luján won the seat in 2020, beating Mark Ronchetti by 6.1 points, and won June's Democratic primary with 84% over Matt Dodson. No Republican qualified for the primary ballot; Larry Marker, of Roswell, won the nomination as a write-in with 31,220 votes. No other candidate qualified for the November ballot. | Before results, the forecast is the polling average less New Mexico's allowance. The starting point for every county is the 2024 presidential race (Harris +6.0), so each county's swing measures how much better or worse Luján runs than Harris did there. |
| An open governor's race on the same ballot | Michelle Lujan Grisham can't run again. Former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland is the Democratic nominee for governor and Las Cruces Mayor Gregg Hull the Republican one. In 2022 Lujan Grisham won by 6.4; in 2018 she ran 9 points behind Martin Heinrich's Senate margin, in a race where the Libertarian Gary Johnson took 15%. | Voters who split their tickets show up in the Senate margins directly. In What-if mode, enter Senate margins, not governor's race margins. |
| A state that has narrowed | New Mexico went from Biden +10.8 in 2020 to Harris +6.0 in 2024. The biggest moves came in the Hispanic north, the border counties and McKinley County on the Navajo Nation; Albuquerque's Bernalillo County moved the other way, from 13.6 points more Democratic than the state to 15.0. | Pick a turnout pattern under "Fine-tune the assumptions" ("Like 2022" or "Like 2018"). The "2020 again" what-if replays each group's swing from Luján's own 2020 race. |
| No record of the count's order | The Secretary of State's results site hides each county's absentee, early and Election Day counts for past elections, so there is no county-by-county record of how the count moves through the night. | The page uses its default spread for the move from first results to the final count, and the "How much more Republican Election Day votes will be" setting starts at zero. On election night the page reads each county's count from the Secretary of State's results site. |
| Polls and New Mexico's record | The page's average of 3 recent polls had Luján ahead by 16.3 on October 24. | New Mexico's final poll averages, taken the way this page takes them, understated the Democrat in five of the seven statewide races since 2018: by 8.6 and 5.2 points in the 2018 Senate and governor's races, 1.4 in the 2022 governor's race and less than half a point in both 2024 races. They overstated Luján by 4.3 in 2020 and Biden by 2.2. On average New Mexico's polls have leaned 1.3 points toward the Republican; pooled with the other states' midterm-year misses, the default allowance is half a point, taken off Marker. The spread around the polling average is 5 points, and the allowance is adjustable under "Fine-tune the assumptions." |
- County returns 2016–2024: the New Mexico Secretary of State's results site (official results by county for each general election). The Democratic and Republican candidates' votes add up to the certified statewide count exactly; the site hides a minor-party candidate's smallest county counts, at most 41 votes in a race.
- County boundaries: us-atlas (Census cartographic boundaries)
- Absentee and early-vote turnout: not on this page.
- Polling average: Wikipedia, 2026 United States Senate election in New Mexico (poll table)
- Election-night results: the Secretary of State's results site, each county's count as it reports (the U.S. Senate and U.S. House races).
- In the news: headlines and links from Google News, GDELT and the state's own news outlets, read twice a day. Pollitrack never fetches or stores the articles themselves.