Preview only: Mississippi's own model is not built yet. The county groups, map, what-if scenarios and past-race numbers on this page are Texas's, used as stand-ins. The polls and results are Mississippi's.
The forecast
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Numbers as a table
Things to know
The race in two minutes
Read by Maren Holt, Pollitrack's anchor · Recorded October 25
Read the transcript
I'm Maren Holt, and this is your Pollitrack digest on the Senate race in Mississippi.
On November 3, Mississippi decides who holds this seat for the next six years. Mississippi lists party nominees alphabetically, so on the ballot: Democrat Scott Colom, the district attorney for four counties around Columbus, and Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith, the senator seeking re-election. An independent, Ty Pinkins, is on the ballot too.
The polling average has Hyde-Smith ahead by 6.2 points across four recent polls. Mississippi polls have understated Republicans more often than not, so Pollitrack's forecast moves that half a point toward Hyde-Smith. That leaves Hyde-Smith ahead by 6.7, with a 91 percent chance of finishing first and Colom at 9 percent.
That is a solid lead, but not a sure thing. With only four recent polls, the average can still move.
Mississippi has no early voting open to everyone. Voters with an excuse, such as being sixty-five or older or away from home, can vote absentee in person through Saturday, October 31, or by mail. Pollitrack does not read Mississippi's absentee counts yet, so the forecast rests on the polls.
On election night, Pollitrack reads five bellwether counties, each standing in for a part of the state: Forrest, home to Hattiesburg, for the biggest group, with Gulfport and the Jackson suburbs; Washington, home to Greenville, for Jackson and the Delta; Marion for the small towns; Prentiss for the northeastern hills; and Lafayette, home to Oxford, for the college town.
Polls close at 7 pm Central. As those counties report, the forecast stops leaning on polls and starts reading votes. Scroll down to explore each county, or switch to What-if mode and play out your own night. I'm Maren Holt. See you on election night.
The recording plays on the Pollitrack site. The transcript is above.
Early voting
How to read this: the line adds up early votes day by day, in person and by mail. The amber line is 2026; the gray lines are past years on the same day of early voting, so a 2026 line above them means more early votes than then. Refreshed every morning and afternoon from the Mississippi Secretary of State's early-vote counts.Numbers as a table
Numbers as a table
Cumulative early votes, in person and by mail, against the same day in 2022 and 2024.
In the news
How to read this: the headlines free news sources carry about this race, newest first, with who published each. The counts are how many stories named each candidate in the last seven days. Pollitrack reads the headlines; it does not judge them and they do not change the forecast.
The newest headlines about this race, refreshed twice a day.
This week: 54 stories name Colom, 22 name Hyde-Smith, 24 name both.
- Mississippi AG says Colom deepfake ad may violate election law
- Former VP Kamala Harris joins Senate candidate Scott Colom for campaign rally
- Colom responds to AG’s request to remove AI-generated ads
- Democratic U.S. Senate hopeful Scott Colom threatened with legal action over AI-generated ads
- ‘Mississippi Matters’: Kamala Harris Campaigns With Scott Colom in Columbus to Boost Voter Turnout
- Scott Colom May Have Broken Mississippi Law With Cindy Hyde-Smith AI Ad, Lynn Fitch Says
Five county groups
How to read this: every county joins the group whose bellwether county it has moved most like since 2016. The color is the group's margin in the view you pick: where its bellwether lands if the polls are right, its 2024 President result, or, on election night, how far each county has shifted since 2024. Darker means a bigger lead: 15 points or more, 5 to 15, or under 5. Tap a group or a county to light up its group.
Every county joins the bellwether it has voted most like since 2016.
Pick a group to light up its counties.
500 possible election nights
How to read this: the forecast is replayed 500 times, each with a different random draw of its uncertainty. Each dot is five possible nights, stacked by the statewide margin in 1-point steps: blue dots are Colom wins and red dots are Hyde-Smith wins. The more dots on one side of the tie line, the likelier that candidate wins.
The forecast replayed 500 times, with every county group free to miss.
Wins per 100 nights · each dot = 5 nights
The five bellwethers
How to read this: each row is one county, on a scale from a big Hyde-Smith lead (left) to a big Colom lead (right). The amber mark is the tie line: if every part of Mississippi shifted as much as this county did, a result there would mean a statewide tie. A dot to the right of it is good news for Colom, and to the left for Hyde-Smith; the colored bar shows how far each county is from the tie line, and toward whom. The gray ticks are the 2024 and 2020 results. The dot is where the polling average points until results post, then the real result. Drag a dot, tap anywhere on a row, or use the arrow keys to try your own numbers; the dot clicks onto the marks when you get close.
Drag a dot, or pick a scenario, to see who wins Mississippi.
Fine-tune the assumptions
County guides
Why each county was picked and what to watch.
Biggest vote source
ForrestTie line: Colom +5.0 · stands in for Gulfport, the Jackson suburbs, Tupelo, Hattiesburg, Meridian and Starkville, 37% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Trump +17.9
- 2023 Governor
- Presley +0.7
- 2020 Senate
- Hyde-Smith +3.8
- Compared with Mississippi
- 4–6 points more Democratic in every race since 2016
Why this county
Forrest County (Hattiesburg, home of the University of Southern Mississippi) leads the biggest group: 23 counties that cast 37.2% of the 2024 vote, which Trump won by 28.1. They are Harrison (Gulfport and Biloxi), Rankin and Madison outside Jackson, Lee (Tupelo), Lamar, Lauderdale (Meridian), Oktibbeha (Starkville) and smaller counties across the middle of the state such as Copiah, Neshoba, Scott and Grenada. Every point of swing here is worth more than a third of a point statewide. Forrest has voted 4 to 6 points more Democratic than the state in every race since 2016, steady enough to work as a bellwether on its own. Scott (0.9 points off on average), Harrison, Copiah and Grenada (1.1) come next and are available as stand-ins.
What to look for
The tie line here is Colom +5.0: a Colom margin wider than 5.0 favors Colom; a narrower Colom margin or a Hyde-Smith lead favors Hyde-Smith. Hyde-Smith won Forrest by 3.8 in 2020 while winning the state by 10.0; Presley won it by 0.7 in 2023 while losing the state by 3.2. Harrison, the group's biggest county, has a tie line of Hyde-Smith +6.0.
When results come in
Every Mississippi county is on Central time, so its polls close at 7 pm Central. The county counts its absentee ballots with its precincts after the polls close and posts them through the evening.
Signals so far
For scale: Forrest cast 31,645 votes in the 2020 Senate race and Harrison 75,699.
College town test
LafayetteTie line: Colom +1.2 · stands in for Oxford and Calhoun County, 2% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Trump +21.8
- 2023 Governor
- Reeves +4.2
- 2020 Senate
- Hyde-Smith +5.7
- Compared with Mississippi
- from 1.5 points more Republican to 11.8 points more Democratic since 2016
Why this county
Lafayette County (Oxford, home of the University of Mississippi) and neighboring Calhoun County form the smallest group, 2.4% of the 2024 vote, which Trump won by 27.1. Their swings from one race to the next have followed a path of their own: Lafayette ran 11.8 points more Democratic than the state in the 2019 governor's race and 1.5 more Republican in the 2024 Senate race. Every point of swing here is worth only a fortieth of a point statewide, so it matters most as a check on the other groups. Calhoun (0.6 points off on average) is available as a stand-in.
What to look for
The tie line here is Colom +1.2: a Colom margin wider than 1.2 favors Colom; a narrower Colom margin or a Hyde-Smith lead favors Hyde-Smith. Hyde-Smith won Lafayette by 5.7 in 2020; Reeves won it by 4.2 in 2023. Calhoun's tie line is Hyde-Smith +25.1.
When results come in
Polls close at 7 pm Central. Lafayette's count, with its absentee ballots, posts after the polls close.
Signals so far
For scale: Lafayette cast 23,365 votes in the 2020 Senate race and Calhoun 6,591.
Small-town test
MarionTie line: Hyde-Smith +18.7 · stands in for Pascagoula, Laurel, Picayune, Brookhaven, Corinth and the small towns, 28% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Trump +41.6
- 2023 Governor
- Reeves +22.2
- 2020 Senate
- Hyde-Smith +29.9
- Compared with Mississippi
- 16–21 points more Republican in every race since 2016
Why this county
Marion County (Columbia) leads the most counties: 28 that cast 27.9% of the 2024 vote, which Trump won by 44.4. They include Jackson County (Pascagoula) and Hancock on the coast, Jones (Laurel), Pearl River (Picayune), Lincoln (Brookhaven), Alcorn (Corinth), Marshall, Panola and Tate in the north and many small southern counties such as Amite, Walthall, Wayne and Greene. Marion has tracked the group's swing closely in the seven races the model was tested on; Alcorn (0.8 points off on average), Simpson (1.1), Jones (1.1) and Tate (1.3) come next and are available as stand-ins.
What to look for
The tie line here is Hyde-Smith +18.7: a wider Hyde-Smith margin favors Hyde-Smith, a narrower one Colom. Hyde-Smith won Marion by 29.9 in 2020; Reeves won it by 22.2 in 2023. Jackson County, the group's biggest, has a tie line of Hyde-Smith +17.0.
When results come in
Polls close at 7 pm Central. The page reads Marion's count as it posts; to watch Jackson County or Jones instead, pick it as the group's county.
Signals so far
For scale: Marion cast 12,185 votes in the 2020 Senate race and Jackson County 54,267.
Rural base test
PrentissTie line: Hyde-Smith +43.1 · stands in for New Albany, Pontotoc, Fulton, Iuka and the northeastern hills, 6% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Trump +66.0
- 2023 Governor
- Reeves +33.2
- 2020 Senate
- Hyde-Smith +46.6
- Compared with Mississippi
- 26–43 points more Republican in every race since 2016
Why this county
Prentiss County (Booneville) leads 7 counties that cast 5.8% of the 2024 vote, which Trump won by 64.9: Pontotoc, Union (New Albany), Itawamba (Fulton), Tishomingo (Iuka) and Chickasaw in the northeastern hills, and Smith County in the middle of the state. Every point of swing here is worth about a seventeenth of a point statewide. Prentiss has tracked the group's swing closely in the seven races the model was tested on; Tishomingo (0.6 points off on average), Pontotoc and Itawamba (0.7) and Union (0.8) come close and are available as stand-ins.
What to look for
The tie line here is Hyde-Smith +43.1: a wider Hyde-Smith margin favors Hyde-Smith, a narrower one Colom. Hyde-Smith won Prentiss by 46.6 in 2020; Reeves won it by 33.2 in 2023. Pontotoc, the group's biggest county, has a tie line of Hyde-Smith +44.8.
When results come in
Polls close at 7 pm Central. The page reads Prentiss's count as it posts.
Signals so far
For scale: Prentiss cast 10,594 votes in the 2020 Senate race and Pontotoc 14,304.
Delta and capital test
WashingtonTie line: Colom +57.9 · stands in for Jackson, Southaven, Columbus, Vicksburg, Greenville, Natchez and the Delta, 27% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Harris +35.0
- 2023 Governor
- Presley +51.2
- 2020 Senate
- Espy +45.5
- Compared with Mississippi
- 49–58 points more Democratic in every race since 2016
Why this county
Washington County (Greenville) leads 22 counties that cast 26.7% of the 2024 vote, which Harris won by 16.3. They are Hinds (Jackson), DeSoto (Southaven, outside Memphis), Lowndes (Columbus), Warren (Vicksburg), Pike (McComb), Adams (Natchez), the Delta counties from Tunica and Coahoma down to Sharkey, and Noxubee, Kemper and Clay on the Alabama side. DeSoto, a Republican suburb, is grouped here because its swings have moved with these counties'. Every point of swing here is worth more than a quarter of a point statewide. Bolivar (0.5 points off on average), Lowndes (0.5), Clay (0.6) and Pike (0.6) come close and are available as stand-ins.
What to look for
The tie line here is Colom +57.9: a Colom margin wider than 57.9 favors Colom, a narrower one Hyde-Smith. Espy won Washington by 45.5 in 2020; Presley won it by 51.2 in 2023. Hinds, the group's biggest county, has a tie line of Colom +69.0.
When results come in
Polls close at 7 pm Central. The page reads Washington's count as it posts; to watch Bolivar or Lowndes instead, pick it as the group's county.
Signals so far
For scale: Washington cast 18,155 votes in the 2020 Senate race and Hinds 100,038.
Timeline
When results usually arrive, Central time.
Absentee voting. Mississippi has no early voting open to everyone. Voters with an excuse (65 or older, a disability, away from home, working during polling hours) could vote absentee in person at the circuit clerk's office from September 21 to Saturday, October 31, or by mail; a mail ballot counts if it is postmarked by Election Day and reaches the clerk within five business days. The Secretary of State posts absentee counts by county each Monday; this page doesn't read them yet.
Polls close at 7 pm Central. Anyone in line by 7 pm can still vote. Counties count their absentee ballots with their precincts after the polls close and post results through the evening. Judge the night by the bellwethers against their tie lines (Forrest's is Colom +5.0), not by the running total.
Late mail ballots and the county canvass. Mail ballots postmarked by Election Day count if they reach the circuit clerk by Tuesday, November 10. Counties also settle affidavit (provisional) ballots, then certify their results to the Secretary of State.
State certification. The Secretary of State certifies the statewide results once the counties have reported. The page doesn't model a recount or an election contest.
Times are Central time. Counties count their absentee ballots and Election Day votes after the polls close and post them through the evening. The method in six steps, then its track record on past races.
- All 82 counties are grouped by how they have moved relative to the statewide margin across eight statewide races (2016–2024). Each group is tied to one bellwether county.
- When a bellwether reports, its change from its 2024 President margin (Harris vs. Trump) is applied to every county in its group, and each group is weighted by its share of the vote.
- Early-vote readings are moved toward the expected final count. That uses only the 2026 Election Day tilt (Mississippi doesn't publish past results split by vote type), scaled by how much is still uncounted. Counties not yet in borrow the average change of those that are, pulled slightly toward the polls.
- Uncertainty combines the minimum uncertainty, how much of each county is still uncounted, and which counties haven't reported. The win chance and the 500 simulated nights both come from that.
- Until results post, the forecast is the polling average minus an allowance for how Mississippi polls have leaned (0.5 points off Colom unless you change it), with a 5-point spread, the typical size of a final Mississippi poll-average miss since 2018. Where early votes are coming from trims nothing off it by default: each point the early electorate leans more Democratic than at the same point in 2024, measured by county, counts for the weight you set under "Fine-tune the assumptions", and in 2022 and 2024, measured against the election two years earlier, that lean did not predict how the polls missed. The five counties only start to matter on election night.
- Scheduled jobs in the cloud pull a Wikipedia poll table every morning and afternoon and write to this page's data store, which updates open copies of the page without a reload. Mississippi publishes no statewide count on election night, so the page has no live results.
Track record: past races predicted from these five counties alone
| Race predicted | Baseline race | Actual | Model | Miss |
|---|
These misses flatter the model. The five counties were picked by searching for the set that best fits these same seven races. Tested on races it had not seen, the same search missed by about 1.9 points.
What's different in 2026
The model is built on 2016–2024. Here is what could make this race break from those patterns, and how the model handles each.
| Factor | What it could do | How the model handles it |
|---|---|---|
| An incumbent and a third candidate | Cindy Hyde-Smith was appointed in 2018, won that year's special runoff over Mike Espy by 7.3 points and beat him again in 2020 by 10.0. She won March's Republican primary with 80.8%. Scott Colom, the district attorney for four counties around Columbus, won the Democratic primary with 72.9%. Ty Pinkins, the Democrats' 2024 Senate nominee, who lost to Roger Wicker by 25.7 points, is on the ballot as an independent; the polls have had him at 6 to 7%. | Before results, the forecast is the polling average less Mississippi's allowance. The starting point for every county is the 2024 presidential race (Trump +22.9), so each county's swing measures how much better or worse Colom runs than Harris did there. Votes for Pinkins count only toward the total. |
| No runoff | Mississippi requires a majority, with a runoff, for its statewide state offices, but not for Congress: the U.S. Senate seat goes to whoever gets the most votes. The 2018 runoff between Hyde-Smith and Espy was a special election with no party primaries. | The page forecasts the margin between Colom and Hyde-Smith; whoever leads wins. |
| Governor's races that break the pattern | Tate Reeves won the governor's race by 5.1 points in 2019 and 3.2 in 2023, in a state Trump carried by 16.5 in 2020 and 22.9 in 2024. Mississippi's Senate races since 2018 have gone from Hyde-Smith +7.3 to Wicker +25.7. | The page's backtests include both governor's races, so the bellwethers were picked to follow swings that big. In What-if mode, enter Senate margins, not governor's race margins. The "2020 again" what-if replays each group's swing from Hyde-Smith's 2020 race against Espy. |
| No record of the count's order | Mississippi's certified results give each county's total only, with absentee ballots counted into their precincts, and this site has no archived election-night count, so there is no county-by-county record of how the count moves through the night. | The page uses its default spread for the move from first results to the final count, and the "How much more Republican Election Day votes will be" setting starts at zero. Pick a turnout pattern under "Fine-tune the assumptions" ("Like 2023" or "Like 2018"). |
| Polls and Mississippi's record | The page's average of the 4 latest polls had Hyde-Smith ahead by 6.2 on October 25. All four are from firms that mostly work for Democrats: Impact Research in June 2025 and April 2026, Data for Progress in August 2026 and Change Research in October 2026. | Mississippi's final poll averages, taken the way this page takes them, understated the Republican in three of the five statewide races since 2018 that had enough polls: by 4.7 points in Hyde-Smith's 2020 Senate race, 3.3 in the 2019 governor's race and 1.8 in the 2018 Senate race. They overstated Reeves by 3.5 in the 2023 governor's race and Trump by 0.8 in 2020. On average Mississippi's polls have leaned 1.1 points toward the Democrat; pooled with the other states' midterm-year misses, the default allowance is half a point, taken off Colom. The spread around the polling average is 5 points, and the allowance is adjustable under "Fine-tune the assumptions." |
- County returns 2016–2024: the Mississippi Secretary of State's official recapitulations (the statewide recapitulation CSVs for 2019, 2020 and 2024); the 2016 presidential, 2018 Senate, 2018 Senate runoff and 2023 governor's races from Wikipedia's county tables (2018 Senate, for example), taken from the Secretary of State's county recaps because those years' certifications are PDFs. Every race matches the certified statewide totals.
- County boundaries: us-atlas (Census cartographic boundaries)
- Absentee turnout: not on this page yet (the Secretary of State posts a weekly absentee report by county).
- Polling average: Wikipedia, 2026 United States Senate election in Mississippi (poll table)
- Election-night results: none (Mississippi has no statewide election-night results source; the Secretary of State posts the counties' certified counts afterward).
- In the news: headlines and links from Google News, GDELT and the state's own news outlets, read twice a day. Pollitrack never fetches or stores the articles themselves.