Preview only: New Hampshire's own model is not built yet. The town groups, map, what-if scenarios and past-race numbers on this page are Texas's, used as stand-ins. The polls and results are New Hampshire's.
The forecast
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Numbers as a table
Things to know
The race in two minutes
Read by Maren Holt, Pollitrack's anchor · Recorded October 24
Read the transcript
I'm Maren Holt, and this is your Pollitrack digest on the Senate race in New Hampshire.
The seat is open. Jeanne Shaheen is retiring, so on November 3 New Hampshire picks a new senator. The state rotates which party is listed first by district, so we list them alphabetically: Democrat Chris Pappas, the congressman from the state's first district, and Republican John E. Sununu, a former senator who held this seat for one term.
The polling average has Pappas ahead by 6.7 points across three recent polls. Pollitrack's forecast trims that, because New Hampshire polls have leaned toward Democrats on average, though they have missed in both directions. That leaves Pappas ahead by 5.2, with an 85 percent chance of finishing first and Sununu at 15 percent.
That is a real lead, but not a safe one. With only three recent polls, the average can still move.
New Hampshire has no early in-person voting, and an absentee ballot needs a reason the law accepts, such as being out of town. The state publishes no absentee counts, so until election night the forecast rests on the polls.
On election night, Pollitrack reads five bellwether towns, each standing in for a part of the state: Derry for Nashua, Concord and the swing towns, the best single read; Hollis for the Seacoast and the southern suburbs; Claremont for Manchester and the old mill towns; Swanzey for the Monadnock region, the college towns and the North Country; and Bedford for the wealthiest towns.
Polls close at 7 pm Eastern in most towns, and at 8 in some cities. As those towns report, the forecast stops leaning on polls and starts reading votes. Scroll down to explore each town, or switch to What-if mode and play out your own night. I'm Maren Holt. See you on election night.
The recording plays on the Pollitrack site. The transcript is above.
Early voting
How to read this: the line adds up early votes day by day, in person and by mail. The amber line is 2026; the gray lines are past years on the same day of early voting, so a 2026 line above them means more early votes than then. Refreshed every morning and afternoon from no early-vote counts (New Hampshire has no early voting and publishes no absentee counts).Numbers as a table
Numbers as a table
Cumulative early votes, in person and by mail, against the same day in 2022 and 2024.
In the news
How to read this: the headlines free news sources carry about this race, newest first, with who published each. The counts are how many stories named each candidate in the last seven days. Pollitrack reads the headlines; it does not judge them and they do not change the forecast.
The newest headlines about this race, refreshed twice a day.
This week: 21 stories name Pappas, 19 name Sununu, 7 name both.
- New Hampshire could make Chris Pappas first openly gay man in Senate
- Fmr. VP Kamala Harris Rallies with NH Candidates Stefany Shaheen, Chris Pappas and Cinde Warmington
- WATCH LIVE: Kamala Harris joins Chris Pappas for campaign rally in Portsmouth, NH
- Union Leader endorses Sununu in 2026 US Senate race
- New Hampshire Union Leader Endorses John Sununu
- New Hampshire 2nd Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
Five town groups
How to read this: every town joins the group whose bellwether town it has moved most like since 2016. The color is the group's margin in the view you pick: where its bellwether lands if the polls are right, its 2024 President result, or, on election night, how far each town has shifted since 2024. Darker means a bigger lead: 15 points or more, 5 to 15, or under 5. Tap a group or a town to light up its group.
Every town joins the bellwether it has voted most like since 2016.
Pick a group to light up its towns.
500 possible election nights
How to read this: the forecast is replayed 500 times, each with a different random draw of its uncertainty. Each dot is five possible nights, stacked by the statewide margin in 1-point steps: blue dots are Pappas wins and red dots are Sununu wins. The more dots on one side of the tie line, the likelier that candidate wins.
The forecast replayed 500 times, with every town group free to miss.
Wins per 100 nights · each dot = 5 nights
The five bellwethers
How to read this: each row is one town, on a scale from a big Sununu lead (left) to a big Pappas lead (right). The amber mark is the tie line: if every part of New Hampshire shifted as much as this town did, a result there would mean a statewide tie. A dot to the right of it is good news for Pappas, and to the left for Sununu; the colored bar shows how far each town is from the tie line, and toward whom. The gray ticks are the 2024 and 2022 results. The dot is where the polling average points until results post, then the real result. Drag a dot, tap anywhere on a row, or use the arrow keys to try your own numbers; the dot clicks onto the marks when you get close.
Drag a dot, or pick a scenario, to see who wins New Hampshire.
Fine-tune the assumptions
Town guides
Why each town was picked and what to watch.
Best overall predictor
DerryTie line: Sununu +14.6 · a steady read on the biggest group, from Nashua to Concord
- 2024 President
- Trump +11.8
- 2022 Senate
- Bolduc +4.0
- 2022 Governor
- Sununu +27.2
- Compared with New Hampshire
- 9–15 points more Republican, every race since 2016
Why this town
Derry, a Rockingham County town off Interstate 93 where about 18,000 people voted in 2024, has voted 9 to 15 points more Republican than New Hampshire in every statewide race since 2016, governor's races included. That steadiness makes it the best single read on its group: 82 towns and cities, including Nashua, Concord, Londonderry, Hudson, Goffstown, Hampton and Milford, that cast 41% of the statewide vote, more than any other group. Trump won the group by 2.5 in 2024 while losing the state by 2.8.
What to look for
The tie line here is Sununu +14.6: a wider Sununu margin favors Sununu, a narrower one Pappas. Trump won it by 11.8 in 2024; Bolduc won it by 4.0 in 2022 and lost the state by 9; Shaheen carried it by 2.9 in 2020. A Sununu margin under 10 means Pappas is probably ahead; near 20, Sununu is probably ahead. Nashua (tie line Pappas +9.9) and Concord (Pappas +24.2) are bigger checks in the same group.
When results come in
New Hampshire has no live state results feed. Derry reports its count to the Associated Press and the news media on election night, and the Secretary of State posts town results days later. This page reads neither, so it stays on the polls tonight. To use Derry's real number, switch to What-if mode and set Derry to the margin a news site reports. Absentee ballots are counted at the polls on Election Day, so a town's count arrives complete.
Signals so far
New Hampshire has no early voting and publishes no absentee counts, so there is nothing to track here before Election Day. Statewide, the polls have had Pappas ahead in every public poll since the September 8 primary but one, a co/efficient tie in mid-September.
Seacoast and southern suburbs test
HollisTie line: Pappas +9.2 · suburbs that have moved toward Democrats since 2016
- 2024 President
- Harris +12.0
- 2022 Senate
- Hassan +12.6
- 2022 Governor
- Sununu +14.3
- Compared with New Hampshire
- From 8 points more Republican (2016 Senate) to 9 more Democratic (2024 President)
Why this town
Hollis, a Hillsborough County town on the Massachusetts line west of Nashua, leads 43 towns that cast 22% of the statewide vote and gave Harris a 21-point win: Dover, Portsmouth, Exeter, Merrimack, Windham, Lebanon, Hanover and Amherst among them. Hollis itself has moved about 17 points toward Democrats against the state since the 2016 Senate race, the way much of the group has. A point Pappas gains in this group is worth about a fifth of a point statewide.
What to look for
The tie line here is Pappas +9: a result above it favors Pappas, below it Sununu. Harris won it by 12.0; Hassan by 12.6 in 2022; Chris Sununu, John Sununu's brother, carried it by 14.3 for governor the same day. A Pappas margin in the mid-teens means these suburbs still lean toward Democrats; a margin in single digits means Sununu is winning the voters who backed his brother. Amherst, next door, has a tie line of Pappas +13.5.
When results come in
Not on this page tonight: the town reports to the Associated Press and the news media, not to a state feed, and the Secretary of State posts town results days later. Set Hollis in What-if mode to the margin a news site reports. Its result arrives complete, since New Hampshire reports no split between absentee and Election Day votes.
Signals so far
No early-vote counts exist in New Hampshire. Pappas has raised about four times what Sununu has ($21.5 million to $5.3 million through September 30, per the Federal Election Commission).
Working-class test
ClaremontTie line: Sununu +6.0 · mill cities and the Massachusetts border, Manchester included
- 2024 President
- Trump +3.2
- 2022 Senate
- Hassan +5.6
- 2022 Governor
- Sununu +17.3
- Compared with New Hampshire
- From 4 points more Democratic (2016 Senate) to 6 more Republican (2024 President)
Why this town
Claremont, a former mill city on the Connecticut River in Sullivan County, leads 44 towns and cities that cast 22% of the statewide vote: Manchester, Salem, Rochester, Laconia, Raymond, Seabrook, Franklin and Berlin. Trump won them by 7.9 in 2024. They are the mirror image of the suburbs: Claremont has moved about 10 points toward Republicans against the state since 2016. Manchester, the state's biggest city, is Pappas's hometown; his family runs a restaurant there.
What to look for
The tie line here is Sununu +6.0: a wider Sununu margin favors Sununu, a narrower one Pappas. Trump won it by 3.2 in 2024; Hassan carried it by 5.6 in 2022 and Shaheen by 14.0 in 2020. A Pappas win here means Pappas is very likely ahead statewide; a Sununu margin well above 6 means Sununu is very likely ahead. In Manchester the tie line is Pappas +4.8; Harris won it by 7.6 and Hassan by 16.1.
When results come in
Not on this page tonight; Claremont's ward counts go to the Associated Press and the news media and are added up to the city. The page draws cities as one place, since the map has no wards. To try the real number, set Claremont, or Manchester as its stand-in, to the margin a news site reports in What-if mode.
Signals so far
No early-vote counts exist in New Hampshire. Here a narrow Republican win is not enough statewide: Bolduc won it by 0.6 in 2022 while losing the state by 9.
Western & northern test
SwanzeyTie line: Sununu +4.0 · the Monadnock region, the college towns and the North Country
- 2024 President
- Trump +1.3
- 2022 Senate
- Hassan +8.2
- 2022 Governor
- Sununu +13.7
- Compared with New Hampshire
- Within 4 points, every race since 2016
Why this town
Swanzey, a Cheshire County town just south of Keene, has voted within 4 points of New Hampshire in every statewide race since 2016. Its group of 58 towns, including Keene, Durham, Plymouth, Rindge, Jaffrey, Henniker, Haverhill and Lancaster, casts 10% of the statewide vote and gave Harris a 5.5-point win. It mixes college towns with rural towns up north, so its swing tests whether Pappas's support reaches past the southern tier.
What to look for
The tie line here is Sununu +4.0: a wider Sununu margin favors Sununu, a narrower one Pappas. Trump won it by 1.3 in 2024; Hassan won it by 8.2 and Shaheen by 17.4. A Pappas win here means Pappas is probably ahead statewide; a Sununu margin well above 4 means Sununu is probably ahead. Keene's tie line is Pappas +30.9, but Keene is a noisier stand-in: as the group's town it would have missed the past races by 2.3 points on average, against 0.4 for Swanzey.
When results come in
Not on this page tonight. Many of New Hampshire's small towns count paper ballots by hand, so the North Country's counts can reach news sites late in the night. Set Swanzey in What-if mode to the margin a news site reports.
Signals so far
No early-vote counts exist in New Hampshire. Durham and Plymouth are college towns, so student turnout on Election Day, when New Hampshire lets voters register at the polls, shows up in this group's result.
Wealthy-suburb test
BedfordTie line: Pappas +0.5 · the state's biggest ticket-splitters
- 2024 President
- Harris +3.3
- 2022 Senate
- Hassan +3.9
- 2022 Governor
- Sununu +27.7
- Compared with New Hampshire
- From 21 points more Republican (2016 Senate) to even (2024 President)
Why this town
Bedford, a wealthy suburb west of Manchester, has moved further toward Democrats than almost any big town: Ayotte won it by 20.9 in the 2016 Senate race and Harris carried it by 3.3 in 2024. It splits tickets more than the state does. In 2022 it voted for Hassan by 3.9 and for Chris Sununu by 27.7, a 31.6-point gap against 24.6 statewide. Its group is small, 14 towns casting 5% of the statewide vote (Stratham, Litchfield, North Hampton, Greenland, Sunapee and New Castle among them), so each point here moves the state by only about a twentieth of a point.
What to look for
The tie line here is Pappas +0.5: a result above it favors Pappas, below it Sununu. This is where the Sununu name should count most: if John Sununu wins Bedford by 10 or more, he is winning the Republicans who voted for his brother and against Trump; if Pappas carries it, those ticket-splitters are siding with Pappas. Stratham, on the Seacoast, has a tie line of Pappas +17.4.
When results come in
Not on this page tonight; Bedford reports to the Associated Press and the news media. Set it in What-if mode to the margin a news site reports. If Bedford has no number, the page borrows the other bellwethers' average swing with a wide error, the widest of the five, since this group's swing has strayed most from the others' in past races.
Signals so far
No early-vote counts exist in New Hampshire. Sununu's endorsements include George W. Bush, a pitch to the kind of Republican who lives here; Pappas's include Don Bolduc, the 2022 Republican Senate nominee.
Timeline
When results usually arrive, Eastern time.
No early voting. New Hampshire has no early in-person voting, and an absentee ballot needs a reason the law accepts, such as being out of town or a disability. Voters can ask for one until November 2; the ballot must reach the town clerk by 5 pm on Election Day. The Secretary of State publishes no absentee counts, so this page has no early-vote tracker for New Hampshire, and the forecast before election night is the polling average less an allowance for how polls lean.
Polls open; voters can register at the polls. Each town sets its hours within the state's limits. Absentee ballots are opened and counted at the polling place during the day, so when a town reports, its count includes them.
Most towns close and start counting. The Associated Press collects each town's count, and news sites show those counts as they come in. This page doesn't read them, so its forecast stays on the polls tonight.
The last polls close; town counts reach news sites. Some cities stay open until 8. There is no live state results feed. To try a town's real number, switch to What-if mode and set that bellwether to the margin a news site reports. A town's count arrives all at once, absentee ballots included, so there is no early number that moves later.
The hand-count towns finish. Many small towns count paper ballots by hand, and the last of them can report after midnight. In a close race, the call can wait for them.
The Secretary of State posts town results. In 2024 the town-by-town spreadsheets were up by three days after the election. A losing candidate may ask for a recount soon after. The page has no reader for those files yet, so it stays on the polls until one is added.
Times are Eastern time. Towns report absentee and Election Day votes together. The method in six steps, then its track record on past races.
- All 241 towns are grouped by how they have moved relative to the statewide margin across ten statewide races (2016–2024). Each group is tied to one bellwether town.
- When a bellwether reports, its change from its 2024 President margin (Harris vs. Trump) is applied to every town in its group, and each group is weighted by its share of the vote.
- Early-vote readings are moved toward the expected final count. That uses only the 2026 Election Day tilt (New Hampshire doesn't publish past results split by vote type), scaled by how much is still uncounted. Towns not yet in borrow the average change of those that are, pulled slightly toward the polls.
- Uncertainty combines the minimum uncertainty, how much of each town is still uncounted, and which towns haven't reported. The win chance and the 500 simulated nights both come from that.
- Until results post, the forecast is the polling average minus an allowance for how New Hampshire polls have leaned (2 points off Pappas unless you change it), with a 5.5-point spread, the typical size of a final New Hampshire poll-average miss since 2018. The five towns only start to matter on election night.
- Scheduled jobs in the cloud pull a Wikipedia poll table every morning and afternoon. New Hampshire has no live statewide results feed: towns report to the Associated Press and news sites on election night, and the Secretary of State posts town results days later, so on election night this page follows the polls. They write to this page's data store, which updates open copies of the page without a reload.
Track record: past races predicted from these five towns alone
| Race predicted | Baseline race | Actual | Model | Miss |
|---|
These misses flatter the model. The five towns were picked by searching for the set that best fits these same eight races. Tested on races it had not seen, the same search missed by about three-quarters of a point, and a town's count says less than a county's. New Hampshire also has no live results feed: until one is added, this page follows the polls on election night too.
What's different in 2026
The model is built on 2016–2024. Here is what could make this race break from those patterns, and how the model handles each.
| Factor | What it could do | How the model handles it |
|---|---|---|
| An open seat, and a former senator back on the ballot | Jeanne Shaheen is retiring after three terms, so this is New Hampshire's first open Senate race since 2010, also the last time a Republican won one here. John E. Sununu held the seat for one term, from 2003 until Shaheen beat him in 2008. He won the September 8 primary with 68.5% against Scott Brown; Pappas, the 1st District congressman since 2019, won his with 65%. | The starting point is the 2024 presidential race (Harris +2.8), so each bellwether's swing measures how far Sununu runs ahead of Trump's 2024 showing there. To win, he needs to run about 3 points ahead of Trump statewide. |
| The Sununu name and New Hampshire's ticket-splitters | John Sununu's brother Chris was governor from 2017 to 2025 and won four times, by 2.3, 7.0, 31.8 and 15.5 points. In 2022 he won by 15.5 on the same ballot where Hassan won the Senate race by 9.1, a 24.6-point gap. The biggest gaps were in wealthy suburbs such as Bedford (31.6 points). | The bellwethers were picked using the governor's races of 2018 to 2024 as well as presidential and Senate races, so towns that split their tickets are already in the tie lines. "Sununu wins back the suburbs" is the What-if for this. In What-if mode, enter Senate margins, not governor's race margins. |
| No early voting | New Hampshire has no early in-person voting, absentee voting needs a reason, and the Secretary of State publishes no absentee counts. Voters can register at the polls on Election Day. | There is no early-vote tracker and no early-vote lean: the "Where early votes are coming from" setting has nothing to read. Until results come in, the forecast is the polling average less an allowance for how polls lean (2 points off Pappas unless you change it under "Fine-tune the assumptions"), with a 5.5-point spread. |
| No live results on election night | There is no state results feed. Towns report their counts to the Associated Press, and news sites show the AP's town-by-town results; the Secretary of State posts town spreadsheets days later. | On election night this page keeps following the polls: it shows town results only as the AP reports them through news sites, and you can enter a bellwether's margin from one in What-if mode. A town's count includes its absentee ballots, so there's no early-to-final adjustment and the "How much more Republican Election Day votes will be" setting doesn't come into play. A bellwether without a count borrows the average swing of those with one, with wider uncertainty. |
| How the polls have missed here | Pappas has led every public poll since the primary but one, a co/efficient tie in mid-September; the averages put him ahead by 6 to 7. In 2022 the final averages had Hassan and Bolduc nearly tied, and Hassan won by 9. In 2024 they had Harris up about 4 and Ayotte up about 2.5; Harris won by 2.8 and Ayotte by 9.3. | New Hampshire's final poll averages, taken the way this page takes them, missed the governor's races by 11.6 points in 2020 and 9.5 in 2024, both times toward the Republican, and the 2022 Senate race by 7 toward Hassan; the 2020 and 2024 presidential averages leaned Democratic by 3.3 and 4.2. New Hampshire's own average is 2.8 points toward the Democrat; the default of 2 points is that average pooled with the other states' midterm-year misses. The page's average takes the latest poll from each pollster over the three weeks before the newest one, without weighting, so a Dartmouth College poll, whose 2024 polls were far more Democratic than the result, counts as much as any other. |
| Towns, not counties, and cities as one place | New Hampshire counts votes by town and city ward. Eighteen unincorporated places in the North Country and the White Mountains cast no votes in some years, and the map and the Census have no wards. | The model uses the 241 towns and cities that voted in every race from 2016 to 2024, with each city's wards added together. A town's count says less than a county's, so the stated band is wider than in a county state. |
| A midterm with Trump in the White House | Republicans hold the governorship and both chambers of the legislature, while every member of the state's congressional delegation has been a Democrat since 2017. Kelly Ayotte, elected governor in 2024, is up again this year. | Pick a turnout pattern under "Fine-tune the assumptions": "Like 2022" (the Seacoast and suburbs vote a little more) or "Like 2018" (the Seacoast and suburbs vote more, the mill towns less). Beyond that, turnout shows up in each town's result. |
- Town returns 2016–2024: NHPR ElectionStats, New Hampshire Public Radio's results database (each contest's town file, city wards added together; the 2016 and 2020 presidential files leave out write-ins)
- Town boundaries: Census cartographic boundary files, 2024 county subdivisions
- Polling average: Wikipedia, 2026 United States Senate election in New Hampshire (poll table)
- Early votes: none. New Hampshire has no early voting and the Secretary of State publishes no absentee counts
- In the news: headlines and links from Google News, GDELT and the state's own news outlets, read twice a day. Pollitrack never fetches or stores the articles themselves.