Preview only: Georgia's own model is not built yet. The county groups, map, what-if scenarios and past-race numbers on this page are Texas's, used as stand-ins. The polls and results are Georgia's.
The forecast
–
Numbers as a table
Things to know
The race in two minutes
Read by Maren Holt, Pollitrack's anchor · Recorded October 24
Read the transcript
I'm Maren Holt, and this is your Pollitrack digest on the Senate race in Georgia.
On November 3, Georgia decides who holds this seat for the next six years. On the ballot, in the order Georgia lists them: Republican Mike Collins, a congressman in his second term, and Democrat Jon Ossoff, the senator seeking a second term. If neither reaches a majority, the two meet again in a runoff on December first.
The polling average has Ossoff ahead by 7.8 points across four recent polls. Georgia polls have landed close to the result in recent races, so Pollitrack's forecast takes only half a point off. That leaves Ossoff ahead by 7.3, with a 93 percent chance of finishing first and Collins at 7 percent.
That is a solid lead, but not a sure thing. With only four recent polls, the average can still move.
Early voting runs through October 30. In the first eleven days, about 1.6 million Georgians voted. That is 106 percent of the 2022 midterm at the same point, and 62 percent of the 2024 presidential pace.
A big early vote does not tell us who is ahead. It tells us interest is high on both sides.
On election night, Pollitrack reads five bellwether counties, each standing in for a part of the state: Clarke for Atlanta's core and Athens, Chatham, home to Savannah and the steadiest guide to the state, Gwinnett for the big suburbs, Henry for the fast-growing suburbs south of Atlanta, and Camden for rural and small-town Georgia.
Polls close at 7 pm Eastern. As those counties report, the forecast stops leaning on polls and starts reading votes. Scroll down to explore each county, or switch to What-if mode and play out your own night. I'm Maren Holt. See you on election night.
The recording plays on the Pollitrack site. The transcript is above.
Early voting
How to read this: the line adds up early votes day by day, in person and by mail. The amber line is 2026; the gray lines are past years on the same day of early voting, so a 2026 line above them means more early votes than then. Refreshed every morning and afternoon from GeorgiaVotes' daily summary of the Georgia Secretary of State's absentee voter file.Numbers as a table
Numbers as a table
Cumulative early votes, in person and by mail, against the same day in 2022 and 2024.
In the news
How to read this: the headlines free news sources carry about this race, newest first, with who published each. The counts are how many stories named each candidate in the last seven days. Pollitrack reads the headlines; it does not judge them and they do not change the forecast.
The newest headlines about this race, refreshed twice a day.
This week: 18 stories name Collins, 52 name Ossoff, 29 name both.
- Susan Collins won women in 2020. How they break in 2026 could decide the Maine Senate race.
- Trump announces at a Georgia campaign rally that Audi will build a new auto factory in the state
- Georgia draws high-profile boosters to the campaign trail as candidates enter the homestretch
- Ossoff rallies Cobb volunteers with Buttigieg 10 days before election
- Trump holds Georgia rally backing Mike Collins, Rick Jackson
- Mike Collins is delivering a Zacharia-level speech 🥴
Five county groups
How to read this: every county joins the group whose bellwether county it has moved most like since 2016. The color is the group's margin in the view you pick: where its bellwether lands if the polls are right, its 2024 President result, or, on election night, how far each county has shifted since 2024. Darker means a bigger lead: 15 points or more, 5 to 15, or under 5. Tap a group or a county to light up its group.
Every county joins the bellwether it has voted most like since 2016.
Pick a group to light up its counties.
500 possible election nights
How to read this: the forecast is replayed 500 times, each with a different random draw of its uncertainty. Each dot is five possible nights, stacked by the statewide margin in 1-point steps: blue dots are Ossoff wins and red dots are Collins wins. The more dots on one side of the tie line, the likelier that candidate wins.
The forecast replayed 500 times, with every county group free to miss.
Wins per 100 nights · each dot = 5 nights
The five bellwethers
How to read this: each row is one county, on a scale from a big Collins lead (left) to a big Ossoff lead (right). The amber mark is the tie line: if every part of Georgia shifted as much as this county did, a result there would mean a statewide tie. A dot to the right of it is good news for Ossoff, and to the left for Collins; the colored bar shows how far each county is from the tie line, and toward whom. The gray ticks are the 2024 and 2018 results. The dot is where the polling average points until results post, then the real result. Drag a dot, tap anywhere on a row, or use the arrow keys to try your own numbers; the dot clicks onto the marks when you get close.
Drag a dot, or pick a scenario, to see who wins Georgia.
Fine-tune the assumptions
County guides
Why each county was picked and what to watch.
Atlanta and Athens test
ClarkeTie line: Ossoff +40.5 · Athens stands in for Atlanta's core, a fifth of the vote
- 2024 President
- Harris +38.3
- 2022 Senate
- Warnock +44.2
- 2018 Governor
- Abrams +41.7
- Compared with Georgia
- 40–43 points more Democratic in every race since 2016 except the 2016 Senate race
Why this county
Clarke County (Athens, home of the University of Georgia) stands in for the core of the Democratic vote: Fulton, DeKalb and Clayton, plus Liberty near Savannah. Those five counties cast 20.7% of the statewide vote, and Harris won them by 53. Clarke isn't in metro Atlanta, but in the six races the model was tested on, its swing matched the group's within 1.0 point on average. DeKalb has matched slightly better (0.9) and Fulton less well (1.5); both are available as stand-ins. Fulton and DeKalb alone cast more than four in five of the group's votes.
What to look for
The tie line here is Ossoff +40.5: a result above it favors Ossoff, below it Collins. Harris won it by 38.3 and lost Georgia by 2.2; Warnock won it by 44.2 in November 2022 and led Georgia by 1.0. If the polls are right (Ossoff by about 8), Clarke should come in near 48. Near 40, the race is close. Fulton's tie line is Ossoff +47.1 and DeKalb's is Ossoff +66.9.
When results come in
A 2024 state law requires every county to count and report its early in-person votes and the absentee ballots it received before Election Day by 8 pm, an hour after polls close, so most of Clarke's vote should be in by then. Election Day votes follow. Clarke's final count has always come in more Republican than its early and mail votes: by 6.3 and 5.2 points in 2022's governor and Senate races and by 2.4 in 2024. Fulton and DeKalb are the slow ones: in the December 2022 runoff Fulton had 53% of its votes counted at 9:27 pm, and in 2024 its election director expected the bulk of its results by about 11 pm.
Signals so far
Through October 21, Clarke's early votes equaled 28.4% of all the ballots it cast in 2022, the slowest pace of the five bellwethers and below 33.6% statewide. Fulton was at 38.8% and DeKalb at 37.8% (GeorgiaVotes), and Fulton was the first county to pass 100,000 early votes.
Best overall predictor
ChathamTie line: Ossoff +20.2 · the county that has kept the steadiest distance from Georgia
- 2024 President
- Harris +18.0
- 2022 Senate
- Warnock +20.6
- 2018 Governor
- Abrams +19.0
- Compared with Georgia
- 18.5–20.4 points more Democratic in every race since 2018
Why this county
Chatham County (Savannah) has kept the steadiest distance from the state: in every November race from 2018 to 2024 it voted 18.5 to 20.4 points more Democratic than Georgia. Subtract 19.5 from its margin and you'd never have missed the statewide result by more than a point in those races. Its group is Georgia's other cities and the Black Belt: Richmond (Augusta), Muscogee (Columbus), Bibb (Macon), Dougherty (Albany), the suburbs of Coweta, Oconee and Bryan, and small counties such as Macon, Randolph and Stewart. That's 14 counties and 11.3% of the statewide vote. For this group alone, Bibb has been the closer match (0.3 points off on average, compared with Chatham's 1.3), and it's available as a stand-in.
What to look for
The tie line here is Ossoff +20: a result above it favors Ossoff, below it Collins. Harris won it by 18.0; Warnock won it by 20.6 in 2022, when he led the state by 1.0. If the polls are right, Chatham should land near 28. Below 18, Collins is likely ahead; near 28, Ossoff is.
When results come in
Chatham's early and mail votes are due by 8 pm, but its first number can mislead more than most. Its final count came in 13.2 and 12.1 points more Republican than its early and mail votes in 2022's governor and Senate races, and 0.3 points more Democratic in 2024. The model expects a large move toward Collins after the first batch, with wide uncertainty, until Election Day precincts report. Chatham, like Fulton and DeKalb, has historically been slower to count than most of the state.
Signals so far
Through October 21, Chatham's early votes equaled 29.4% of its 2022 ballots, below 33.6% statewide; Richmond was at 29.9%, Bibb at 31.2% and Muscogee at 33.3% (GeorgiaVotes). Chatham leans on Election Day more than most big counties: early and mail votes were 54% of its 2022 total, compared with 64% statewide. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported strong early voting in Bibb and Richmond.
Diverse suburbs test
GwinnettTie line: Ossoff +18.7 · stands in for the suburbs and exurbs, 29% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Harris +16.5
- 2022 Senate
- Warnock +20.4
- 2018 Governor
- Abrams +14.3
- Compared with Georgia
- from 11 points more Democratic (2016) to 18–19 more since 2020
Why this county
Gwinnett casts the second-most votes in Georgia and is one of the most diverse counties in the South, with large Asian, Black, Hispanic and white populations. It leads nine suburban and exurban counties: Cobb, Cherokee, Forsyth, Paulding, Columbia (outside Augusta), Houston (Warner Robins), Fayette and Newton. Together they cast 28.9% of the statewide vote, and Trump won them by 1.8. Gwinnett went from Clinton +5.9 in 2016 to Biden +18.2 in 2020 and has held most of that. Of the four counties offered for this row, its swing has matched the group's most closely (1.3 points off on average, compared with 1.7 for Cobb).
What to look for
The tie line here is Ossoff +19: a result above it favors Ossoff, below it Collins. Warnock won it by 20.4 in 2022; Abrams won it by 10.3 the same night while losing the state by 7.5. If the polls are right, Gwinnett should come in near 26. Cobb's tie line is Ossoff +17.1. If the Republican exurbs to the north, Cherokee and Forsyth, gain more turnout than Gwinnett, the suburban row may overstate Ossoff; switch to Fayette (Collins +1.0) or Houston (Collins +9.1) to see the difference.
When results come in
Gwinnett's early and mail votes are due by 8 pm. Its final count came in 8.6 and 7.4 points more Republican than those first votes in 2022's governor and Senate races and 2.2 points more Republican in 2024, so expect a sizable move toward Collins as Election Day precincts report. In the December 2022 runoff, Cobb had about 60% of its votes counted at 9:27 pm.
Signals so far
Through October 21, Gwinnett's early votes equaled 35.0% of its 2022 ballots and Cobb's 35.4%, a little ahead of 33.6% statewide. Cherokee (33.5%) and Forsyth (32.9%) were slightly behind, though the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported both running ahead of 2022. A Quantus Insights poll (October 15–17) had Ossoff winning suburban voters by 13 while the Republican for governor, Rick Jackson, led them by 3.
Rural Georgia test
CamdenTie line: Collins +33.5 · stands in for a third of the statewide vote
- 2024 President
- Trump +35.7
- 2022 Senate
- Walker +33.2
- 2018 Governor
- Kemp +31.7
- Compared with Georgia
- 30–34 points more Republican since 2018 (29 in 2016)
Why this county
128 rural and small-town counties cast 34.4% of Georgia's vote, and Trump won them by 44 in 2024. Every point of swing there is worth about a third of a point statewide. Camden County (St. Marys and Kingsland, home of the Kings Bay submarine base) sits in the state's southeast corner. It was picked because, with it, the five bellwethers together fit past statewide results best. For the rural group alone, Carroll (west of Atlanta) has tracked it more closely: 0.6 points off on average, compared with Camden's 1.3. The group also includes Hall (Gainesville), Bartow, Whitfield (Dalton), Lowndes (Valdosta) and Glynn (Brunswick).
What to look for
The tie line here is Collins +33.5: a wider Collins margin favors Collins, a narrower one Ossoff. If the polls are right it should come in near Collins +26. Kemp won it by 40.3 in 2022, Walker by 33.2 the same night and Trump by 35.7. At Collins +36 or more, Collins is likely ahead; near Collins +26, Ossoff is. Carroll's tie line is Collins +39.0. While Camden hasn't reported, the forecast's likely range is wider than for any other missing bellwether, so wait for it before trusting a call.
When results come in
Republican rural counties have usually reported before the big metro counties; in 2024 the Secretary of State expected smaller counties to finish by about 9:30 to 10 pm. Camden's final count came in 8.6 and 8.3 points more Republican than its early and mail votes in 2022's governor and Senate races, and 0.3 points more in 2024. The live data marks counties that have posted only early and mail votes, and the forecast expects their move toward Collins.
Signals so far
Through October 21, Camden's early votes equaled 33.5% of its 2022 ballots, about the statewide pace (33.6%), but the rural group as a whole was at 29.5% and Carroll at 22.6% (GeorgiaVotes). Rural counties had cast 29.6% of the early votes, compared with 34.4% of the 2024 vote. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported early voting lagging in rural South and Middle Georgia and climbing in Whitfield.
Black suburban growth test
HenryTie line: Ossoff +31.9 · the south metro suburbs, still moving toward Democrats
- 2024 President
- Harris +29.7
- 2022 Senate
- Warnock +29.3
- 2018 Governor
- Abrams +15.3
- Compared with Georgia
- from 9.6 points more Democratic (2016) to 31.9 more (2024)
Why this county
Henry County (McDonough, Stockbridge), south of Atlanta, is a fast-growing suburb with a large Black population, and it has changed faster than almost anywhere in Georgia: Clinton won it by 4.4 in 2016, Harris by 29.7 in 2024. From 2020 to 2024 it moved 9 points toward Democrats while Georgia moved 2.5 points toward Trump. Its group is just Henry, Douglas and Rockdale, 4.7% of the statewide vote, so each point there is worth only about 0.05 points statewide. It's here as the clearest read on Black suburban turnout and support. Rockdale has tracked the group about as well (0.6 points off on average) and is available as a stand-in.
What to look for
The tie line here is Ossoff +32: a result above it favors Ossoff, below it Collins. Warnock won it by 29.3 in 2022 while leading the state by 1.0, so Harris's 29.7 while losing the state set a new high. If the polls are right, Henry should come in near 40. Read it alongside Clarke: if both land well above their tie lines, Ossoff is likely ahead; if both land below them, Collins is. If Henry falls back toward 2022's distance from the state (28 points), the south metro's shift toward Democrats has leveled off.
When results come in
Most of Henry's vote is cast early (81% in 2024, 72% in 2022), and those votes are due by 8 pm. Its final count came in 7.5 and 6.9 points more Republican than its early and mail votes in 2022's governor and Senate races and 1.3 points more in 2024.
Signals so far
Through October 21, Henry's early votes equaled 39.1% of all its 2022 ballots, Douglas's 39.3% and Rockdale's 41.4%: the fastest pace of any group, compared with 33.6% statewide (GeorgiaVotes). Black voters cast 33.4% of Georgia's early votes through October 22. A Quantus Insights poll (October 15–17) had Ossoff winning 89% of Black voters.
Timeline
When results usually arrive, Eastern time.
Early voting. Watch each group's turnout in the early voting tracker above; it refreshes every morning. Through October 22, 1.47 million Georgians had voted early or by mail, 5% more than at the same point in 2022, and Black voters had cast 33.4% of those ballots. Georgia doesn't register voters by party, so the tracker shows where votes come from, not which party they favor. Mail ballots must reach the county by 7 pm on Election Day.
Polls close statewide. Anyone in line by 7 pm can still vote. Counties have been preparing absentee ballots for weeks but can't release any results until polls close. Early in-person and absentee batches start reaching the Secretary of State's results portal within minutes (13 minutes after close in the 2022 primary). The portal splits every county's count by vote method, so in Live data mode the page knows which counties have only early and mail votes in. In 2024, bomb-threat hoaxes kept five Fulton polling places open 10 to 45 minutes late.
Deadline for early and absentee votes. A 2024 state law requires counties to report all early in-person votes and the absentee ballots received before Election Day by 8 pm. In 2024 the Secretary of State expected 70 to 75% of all votes to be in by then. Expect less in a midterm: early and mail ballots were 77% of the 2024 presidential vote but 64% of the 2022 Senate vote. These batches lean Democratic: in 2022 Warnock led the early and mail votes by 10.1 points and finished ahead by 1.0.
Election Day precincts. Republican rural counties have usually reported first; in 2024 the Secretary of State expected smaller counties to finish by about 9:30 to 10 pm. Fulton, DeKalb and Chatham have historically taken longer. In the December 2022 runoff, Fulton had 53% of its votes counted at 9:27 pm, and the Associated Press called that race for Warnock at about 10:30 pm. The forecast's early-vote adjustment for each county shrinks as its Election Day sites report.
The big metro counties finish. In 2024 Fulton's election director expected the bulk of its results by about 11 pm, and the Associated Press called Georgia for Trump at 12:58 am. A race within a couple of points may not be called tonight.
The last ballots. Absentee ballots dropped off on Election Day, provisional ballots, and military and overseas ballots (postmarked by November 3 and received by Friday, November 6) are counted in the days after. Until they're in, the forecast's likely range includes them. If the race is within a point when you go to bed, that range is the honest answer.
Certification, a possible recount, a possible runoff. Counties must certify by 5 pm Monday, November 9, and the state by November 20. If the margin is half a point or less, the trailing candidate can ask for a recount within two business days of certification; the hand recount lawmakers added this summer for close races for governor and other state offices doesn't cover the Senate race. If neither candidate wins a majority, a runoff follows on December 1. With no Libertarian on the ballot, only write-in votes could keep both below 50%, so that's unlikely. The page doesn't model a recount or a runoff.
Times are Eastern time. Counties post early votes first, then Election Day results. The method in six steps, then its track record on past races.
- All 159 counties are grouped by how they have moved relative to the statewide margin across eight statewide races (2016–2024). Each group is tied to one bellwether county.
- When a bellwether reports, its change from its 2024 President margin (Harris vs. Trump) is applied to every county in its group, and each group is weighted by its share of the vote.
- Early-vote readings are moved toward the expected final count. That uses each county's 2022–2024 early-versus-final record plus the 2026 Election Day tilt, scaled by how much is still uncounted. Counties not yet in borrow the average change of those that are, pulled slightly toward the polls.
- Uncertainty combines the minimum uncertainty, how much of each county is still uncounted, and which counties haven't reported. The win chance and the 500 simulated nights both come from that.
- Until results post, the forecast is the polling average minus an allowance for how Georgia polls have leaned (0.5 points off Ossoff unless you change it), with a 5-point spread, the typical size of a final Georgia poll-average miss since 2018. Where early votes are coming from trims nothing off it by default: each point the early electorate leans more Democratic than at the same point in 2024, measured by county, counts for the weight you set under "Fine-tune the assumptions", and in 2022 and 2024, measured against the election two years earlier, that lean did not predict how the polls missed. The five counties only start to matter on election night.
- Scheduled jobs in the cloud pull GeorgiaVotes' daily summary of the Georgia Secretary of State's absentee voter file and a Wikipedia poll table every morning and afternoon. On election night they check the Georgia Secretary of State's results every few minutes. They write to this page's data store, which updates open copies of the page without a reload.
Track record: past races predicted from these five counties alone
| Race predicted | Baseline race | Actual | Model | Miss |
|---|
These misses flatter the model. The five counties were picked by searching for the set that best fits these same six races. Tested on races it had not seen, the same search missed by about half a point. If a tie falls inside the likely range, treat the race as a toss-up.
What's different in 2026
The model is built on 2016–2024. Here is what could make this race break from those patterns, and how the model handles each.
| Factor | What it could do | How the model handles it |
|---|---|---|
| Ossoff is the incumbent; Collins came out of a runoff | Ossoff won the seat in the January 2021 runoff by 1.2 points. Collins, a trucking-company owner in his second term in the U.S. House, won the Republican nomination 55.5–44.5 over Derek Dooley in the June 16 runoff after Trump endorsed him; Governor Kemp had backed Dooley and has since endorsed Collins. Through September 30, Ossoff had raised $124.7 million to Collins's $10.2 million, and had $26.3 million in the bank to Collins's $1.2 million. Collins faces a House Ethics Committee review of his office's spending, and in August he answered for his son-in-law's antisemitic posts. Forecasters rate the race Lean to Likely Democratic. | Before results, the forecast starts from the polling average and takes 0.5 points off Ossoff off it. The starting point for every county is the 2024 presidential race (Trump +2.2), so on election night each county's swing measures how much better or worse Ossoff runs than Harris did there. |
| A toss-up governor's race on the same ballot | Rick Jackson (Republican), who beat Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones in the June runoff, faces Keisha Lance Bottoms (Democrat). Polls have it within 2 points (InsiderAdvantage, October 12–13: Jackson 49, Bottoms 47) while Ossoff leads by 7 to 8. Quantus Insights (October 15–17) had Ossoff winning suburban voters by 13 and Jackson winning them by 3, and Ossoff taking 89% of Black voters to Bottoms's 82%. | Each county's swing is measured from the 2024 presidential race, so voters splitting their ballots show up in Ossoff's county margins directly. In What-if mode, enter Senate margins, not governor's race margins. |
| A midterm with Trump in the White House | Democrats cast just over 1 million ballots in the May 19 primaries to Republicans' nearly 940,000 (52.6% to 45.4%); in 2018, the last midterm under Trump, Republicans led 52 to 48. Some of that reflects an open Democratic governor's primary and voters crossing over. In October, 68% of likely Democratic voters told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's poll they were very enthusiastic, compared with 48% of Republicans. Ossoff's job approval was 55% to 35% in the University of Georgia poll (October 7–15). | Pick a turnout pattern under "Fine-tune the assumptions" ("Like 2022" or "Like 2018"). Beyond that, turnout shows up in each county's result: where Democrats turn out, Ossoff's margin is bigger. |
| Black voters' turnout | Black voters cast 33.4% of early ballots through October 22 and about 32% of May's primary ballots. Political scientist Trey Hood says a Black share above 29% in a general election would be unprecedented, though early voters skew older and the final share will be lower. Henry County moved 9 points toward Harris from 2020 to 2024 while the state moved 2.5 toward Trump. | The Atlanta core (Clarke) and south metro (Henry) groups, a quarter of the statewide vote, follow their own bellwethers, so higher Black turnout and support show up there directly. The "Suburbs swing to Ossoff" and "Suburbs swing to Collins" what-ifs move the suburban row either way. |
| Early votes versus Election Day votes | In the 2022 midterm, Election Day votes were far more Republican: Warnock led the early and mail votes by 10.1 points and finished ahead by 1.0. In 2024 the gap was small: Trump led the early and mail votes by 0.7 and won by 2.2. Early and mail ballots were 64% of the vote in 2022 and 77% in 2024. | Each county gets its own expected change from early votes to the final count, based on its 2022 governor, 2022 Senate and 2024 presidential records, plus an extra allowance toward Collins for this year that you can change. The results portal splits every county's count by vote method, so the page knows when a county has only early and mail votes counted; those counties also get wider uncertainty. |
| Early-vote turnout, but no party registration | Through October 22, 1.47 million Georgians had voted early or by mail, 5% more than at this point in 2022 (GeorgiaVotes). Georgia doesn't register voters by party, so there's no count of Democrats and Republicans. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution counted about 400,000 early voters in strongly Harris areas and 380,000 in strongly Trump areas as of October 20, with metro Atlanta running ahead and rural South and Middle Georgia lagging. | The tracker shows each group's turnout. The forecast's early-vote adjustment, which moves the poll allowance when early votes come from more Democratic or more Republican places than at this point in 2024, is not applied in Georgia yet: it needs county counts from the same point in 2024, and Georgia's feed has only 2024's final totals. |
| Polls and Georgia's record | The page's average of four October polls had Ossoff ahead by 7.8 on October 22; other averages range from 8 to 9 points. In 2022's Senate race, late polls had Walker ahead by about a point, and Warnock finished first by 1.0. The University of Georgia poll still found 12% undecided. | Georgia's final poll averages, taken the way this page takes them, have been close since 2018: within a point in 2018, the 2022 governor's race and 2024, 1.6 and 3.6 toward Democrats in the 2020 races, and 2 toward Republicans in the 2022 Senate race. Georgia's own average is 0.6 of a point; the default of half a point is that average pooled with the other states' midterm-year misses, which have run about half a point. The spread around the polling average is 5 points, and the allowance is adjustable under "Fine-tune the assumptions." On election night the real county results replace the polls. |
| A runoff if no one wins a majority | Georgia requires 50% plus one. Ossoff trailed David Perdue 49.7% to 47.9% in November 2020 and won the January 2021 runoff by 1.2; Warnock won his December 2022 runoff by 2.7 after finishing first by 1.0. This year no Libertarian made the ballot, so only write-in votes could keep both candidates under 50%. A runoff would be December 1. | Not modeled. The forecast is the November 3 margin between Ossoff and Collins as a share of all votes cast, so write-in votes need no separate adjustment. |
| New counting rules and Fulton's 2020 ballots | Lawmakers put off the ban on counting ballots by their QR codes until 2028, so this year's ballots are counted the same way as 2024's. A new law requires hand recounts in very close races for governor and other statewide offices, but not for the U.S. Senate. In January the FBI took about 650 boxes of Fulton County's 2020 election records. A state appeals court ruled in 2025 that county boards must certify results by the deadline. | None of this changes the count the page reads. Recounts, provisional ballots and cured ballots after election night are not modeled. |
- County returns 2016–2024, with each county's early, mail and Election Day split: Georgia Secretary of State results portal (2016, 2018, 2020 and 2022 generals, the January 2021 runoff and the 2024 general)
- County boundaries: us-atlas (Census cartographic boundaries)
- Early-vote turnout: GeorgiaVotes county table (an unofficial daily summary of the Secretary of State's absentee and early voter file), compared with the 2022 and 2024 early and mail totals from the results portal
- Polling average: Wikipedia, 2026 United States Senate election in Georgia (poll table)
- Election-night results: Georgia Secretary of State results portal
- In the news: headlines and links from Google News, GDELT and the state's own news outlets, read twice a day. Pollitrack never fetches or stores the articles themselves.