Preview only: South Carolina's own model is not built yet. The county groups, map, what-if scenarios and past-race numbers on this page are Texas's, used as stand-ins. The polls and results are South Carolina's.
The forecast
–
Numbers as a table
Things to know
Early voting
How to read this: the line adds up early votes day by day, in person and by mail. The amber line is 2026; the gray lines are past years on the same day of early voting, so a 2026 line above them means more early votes than then. Refreshed every morning and afternoon from the South Carolina State Election Commission's early-vote counts.Numbers as a table
Numbers as a table
Cumulative early votes, in person and by mail, against the same day in 2022 and 2024.
In the news
How to read this: the headlines free news sources carry about this race, newest first, with who published each. The counts are how many stories named each candidate in the last seven days. Pollitrack reads the headlines; it does not judge them and they do not change the forecast.
The newest headlines about this race, refreshed twice a day.
This week: 35 stories name Andrews, 75 name Graham, 21 name both.
- Annie Andrews Holds Anderson SC Town Hall on Affordability
- South Carolina Senate Race & SC Governor Race 2026 Odds | Graham vs Andrews Polls + Kalshi & Polymarket South Carolina Senate Race Prediction
- DECISION 2026: President Trump rallies support for Senator Graham in pre-election visit to deeply red Upstate
- Dr. Annie Andrews hosts town hall in Anderson
- Dr. Annie Andrews hosts town hall in Anderson as early voting underway
- South Carolina Historic Senate Race Pits Two Women in a Tightening Dead - Heat Fight
Five county groups
How to read this: every county joins the group whose bellwether county it has moved most like since 2016. The color is the group's margin in the view you pick: where its bellwether lands if the polls are right, its 2024 President result, or, on election night, how far each county has shifted since 2024. Darker means a bigger lead: 15 points or more, 5 to 15, or under 5. Tap a group or a county to light up its group.
Every county joins the bellwether it has voted most like since 2016.
Pick a group to light up its counties.
500 possible election nights
How to read this: the forecast is replayed 500 times, each with a different random draw of its uncertainty. Each dot is five possible nights, stacked by the statewide margin in 1-point steps: blue dots are Andrews wins and red dots are Graham wins. The more dots on one side of the tie line, the likelier that candidate wins.
The forecast replayed 500 times, with every county group free to miss.
Wins per 100 nights · each dot = 5 nights
The five bellwethers
How to read this: each row is one county, on a scale from a big Graham lead (left) to a big Andrews lead (right). The amber mark is the tie line: if every part of South Carolina shifted as much as this county did, a result there would mean a statewide tie. A dot to the right of it is good news for Andrews, and to the left for Graham; the colored bar shows how far each county is from the tie line, and toward whom. The gray ticks are the 2024 and 2020 results. The dot is where the polling average points until results post, then the real result. Drag a dot, tap anywhere on a row, or use the arrow keys to try your own numbers; the dot clicks onto the marks when you get close.
Drag a dot, or pick a scenario, to see who wins South Carolina.
Fine-tune the assumptions
County guides
Why each county was picked and what to watch.
Small-town test
ColletonTie line: Graham +0.3 · stands in for the Pee Dee, Orangeburg, Sumter and the rural Lowcountry and Midlands, 15% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Trump +18.2
- 2022 Senate
- Scott +24.0
- 2020 Senate
- Lindsey Graham +6.4
- Compared with South Carolina
- From 6 points more Democratic than the state in 2016 to even with it in 2024
Why this county
Colleton County (Walterboro, between Charleston and Savannah) leads the most counties: 24 small-town and farm counties that cast 15.2% of the 2024 vote, which Trump won by 9.1. They run from Sumter, Orangeburg and Darlington through the Pee Dee (Marion, Dillon, Marlboro, Williamsburg) to Laurens, Newberry and Chester in the Piedmont and Jasper, Hampton and Barnwell in the Lowcountry. Some vote heavily Democratic and some heavily Republican, but they have swung together. Colleton has tracked the group's swing most closely in the five races the model was tested on; Orangeburg and Laurens (0.3 points off on average) come close, and Newberry and Clarendon are available as stand-ins.
What to look for
The tie line here is Graham +0.3: a result above it favors Andrews, below it Graham. Colleton went for Lindsey Graham by 6.4 in 2020, Tim Scott by 24.0 in 2022 and Trump by 18.2 in 2024. Orangeburg's tie line is Andrews +42.4. The group moved toward Republicans, against the state, in each race since 2016: whether that holds in a midterm is the question it answers.
When results come in
All of South Carolina closes at 7 pm Eastern. This page doesn't read South Carolina's results live yet: enter Colleton's margin, or Orangeburg's, in What-if mode once the Election Commission's results site shows most of its count in.
Signals so far
In June's Democratic Senate primary Colleton cast 2,909 votes (Andrews 46%, Brandon Brown 46%); in the August 25 Republican runoff it cast 2,253 (Graham 72%, Ralph Norman 28%). For scale: Colleton cast 12,507 votes in the 2022 Senate race.
Mid-size towns test
GeorgetownTie line: Graham +1.6 · stands in for Florence, Georgetown, Greenwood, Gaffney, Edgefield and Allendale, 7% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Trump +19.5
- 2022 Senate
- Scott +27.7
- 2020 Senate
- Lindsey Graham +12.6
- Compared with South Carolina
- Within 3 points of the state in every race since 2016
Why this county
Georgetown County (Georgetown and Pawleys Island, on the coast south of Myrtle Beach) leads six counties that cast 6.7% of the 2024 vote, which Trump won by 21.6: Florence, Greenwood, Cherokee (Gaffney), Edgefield and Allendale. Georgetown itself has voted within three points of the whole state in every race since 2016. It has tracked the group's swing most closely; Edgefield (0.4 points off on average) and Cherokee (0.4) come close, and Greenwood and Florence are available as stand-ins.
What to look for
The tie line here is Graham +1.6: a result above it favors Andrews, below it Graham. Georgetown went for Lindsey Graham by 12.6 in 2020, Tim Scott by 27.7 in 2022 and Trump by 19.5 in 2024. Florence, the group's biggest county, has a tie line of Andrews +9.8.
When results come in
This page doesn't read South Carolina's results live yet: enter Georgetown's margin, or Florence's, in What-if mode once the Election Commission's results site shows most of its count in.
Signals so far
In June's Democratic Senate primary Georgetown cast 5,702 votes (Andrews 56%); in the August 25 Republican runoff it cast 6,451 (Graham 68%, Norman 32%). For scale: Georgetown cast 27,357 votes in the 2022 Senate race and Florence 41,323.
Suburban swing test
GreenvilleTie line: Graham +4.3 · stands in for Greenville, Rock Hill, Lexington, Aiken and the Charleston and Hilton Head suburbs, 39% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Trump +22.2
- 2022 Senate
- Scott +33.2
- 2020 Senate
- Lindsey Graham +17.4
- Compared with South Carolina
- From 11 points more Republican than the state in 2016 to 4 in 2024
Why this county
Greenville County, the state's biggest vote, leads eight fast-growing suburban counties that cast 39.3% of the 2024 vote, which Trump won by 23.5: York (Rock Hill and the Charlotte suburbs), Lexington (west of Columbia), Berkeley and Dorchester (north of Charleston), Beaufort (Hilton Head and Bluffton), Aiken and Pickens. They lean Republican but have moved toward Democrats against the state since 2016. Greenville has tracked the group's swing most closely; Beaufort (0.6 points off on average) comes close, and Berkeley and York are available as stand-ins.
What to look for
The tie line here is Graham +4.3: a result above it favors Andrews, below it Graham. Greenville went for Lindsey Graham by 17.4 in 2020, Tim Scott by 33.2 in 2022 and Trump by 22.2 in 2024. York's tie line is Graham +1.2 and Berkeley's Andrews +1.6. These counties cast two votes in five: a point of swing here is worth about four-tenths of a point statewide.
When results come in
This page doesn't read South Carolina's results live yet: enter Greenville's margin, or York's, in What-if mode once the Election Commission's results site shows most of its count in.
Signals so far
In June's Democratic Senate primary Greenville cast 32,207 votes (Andrews 68%); in the August 25 Republican runoff it cast 48,759 (Norman 67%, Graham 33%). For scale: Greenville cast 177,399 votes in the 2022 Senate race.
City vote test
RichlandTie line: Andrews +52.5 · stands in for Columbia and Charleston, 16% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Harris +34.6
- 2022 Senate
- Matthews +25.4
- 2020 Senate
- Harrison +38.5
- Compared with South Carolina
- 41–53 points more Democratic in every race since 2016
Why this county
Richland County (Columbia, the capital, and the University of South Carolina) and Charleston County together cast 15.6% of the 2024 vote, which Harris won by 19.0. They are the state's two big Democratic-voting counties, and both have moved further from the state toward Democrats since 2016. Richland has tracked the pair's swing more closely; Charleston (0.6 points off on average) is the stand-in.
What to look for
The tie line here is Andrews +52.5: a wider Andrews margin favors Andrews, a narrower one Graham. Richland went for Jaime Harrison by 38.5 in 2020, Krystle Matthews by 25.4 in 2022 and Harris by 34.6 in 2024. Charleston's tie line is Andrews +23.5; it went for Tim Scott by 5.0 in 2022 and Harris by 5.7 in 2024.
When results come in
This page doesn't read South Carolina's results live yet: enter Richland's margin, or Charleston's, in What-if mode once the Election Commission's results site shows most of its count in.
Signals so far
In June's Democratic Senate primary Richland cast 57,808 votes (Andrews 59%) and Charleston 36,324 (Andrews 77%); in the August 25 Republican runoff Richland cast 14,444 (Graham 56%) and Charleston 22,508 (Graham 56%). For scale: Richland cast 126,355 votes in the 2022 Senate race and Charleston 151,799.
Upstate and Grand Strand test
SpartanburgTie line: Graham +15.8 · stands in for Spartanburg, Anderson, Myrtle Beach, Lancaster, Kershaw and the foothills, 23% of the vote
- 2024 President
- Trump +33.6
- 2022 Senate
- Scott +40.6
- 2020 Senate
- Lindsey Graham +25.0
- Compared with South Carolina
- 14–16 points more Republican in every race since 2016
Why this county
Spartanburg County leads six of the most Republican counties, which cast 23.2% of the 2024 vote and went for Trump by 37.8: Horry (Myrtle Beach and the Grand Strand), Anderson and Oconee in the Upstate, Lancaster and Kershaw. Spartanburg has voted 14 to 16 points more Republican than the state in every race since 2016, the steadiest gap of any bellwether. Anderson (0.3 points off on average) comes close, and Horry, Kershaw and Oconee are available as stand-ins.
What to look for
The tie line here is Graham +15.8: a wider Graham margin favors Graham, a narrower one Andrews. Spartanburg went for Lindsey Graham by 25.0 in 2020, Tim Scott by 40.6 in 2022 and Trump by 33.6 in 2024. Horry's tie line is Graham +20.7 and Anderson's Graham +29.5.
When results come in
This page doesn't read South Carolina's results live yet: enter Spartanburg's margin, or Horry's, in What-if mode once the Election Commission's results site shows most of its count in.
Signals so far
In June's Democratic Senate primary Spartanburg cast 15,408 votes (Andrews 60%) and Horry 16,499 (Andrews 74%); in the August 25 Republican runoff Spartanburg cast 25,784 (Norman 66%, Graham 34%) and Horry 36,092 (Graham 73%). For scale: Spartanburg cast 96,822 votes in the 2022 Senate race and Horry 133,205.
Timeline
When results usually arrive, Eastern time.
Early voting, then Election Day. Every county runs early-voting centers from Monday, October 19 to Saturday, October 31, 8:30 am to 6 pm, closed Sunday, October 25; no reason is needed. Voting absentee by mail needs a reason, such as work, age or disability: applications were due October 23, and ballots must reach the county by 7 pm on Election Day. In the first four days 363,566 people voted early, by the Election Commission's count. On Election Day, Tuesday, November 3, polls are open from 7 am to 7 pm. This page doesn't track the early vote yet.
Polls close statewide at 7 pm Eastern. Anyone in line by 7 pm can still vote. Counties post their early votes, mail ballots and Election Day precincts to the Election Commission's results site through the evening. Judge the night by the bellwethers against their tie lines (Greenville's is Graham +4.3, Colleton's Graham +0.3), not by the running total.
Provisional ballots and the county canvass. County boards of canvassers meet on the Friday after the election, November 6, rule on provisional ballots and send their counts to the state by noon Saturday (S.C. Code §§ 7-17-10, 7-17-20).
State certification. The State Board of Canvassers certifies the statewide result within ten days of the election (S.C. Code § 7-17-220). A margin of 1% or less of the votes cast for the office brings an automatic recount (S.C. Code § 7-17-280). The page doesn't model a recount.
Times are Eastern time. Counties post their early votes, mail ballots and Election Day precincts through the evening, and this page doesn't read them live yet. The method in six steps, then its track record on past races.
- All 46 counties are grouped by how they have moved relative to the statewide margin across six statewide races (2016–2024). Each group is tied to one bellwether county.
- When a bellwether reports, its change from its 2024 President margin (Harris vs. Trump) is applied to every county in its group, and each group is weighted by its share of the vote.
- Early-vote readings are moved toward the expected final count. That uses each county's 2020–2024 early-versus-final record plus the 2026 Election Day tilt, scaled by how much is still uncounted. Counties not yet in borrow the average change of those that are, pulled slightly toward the polls.
- Uncertainty combines the minimum uncertainty, how much of each county is still uncounted, and which counties haven't reported. The win chance and the 500 simulated nights both come from that.
- Until results post, the forecast is the polling average minus an allowance for how South Carolina polls have leaned (1 point off Andrews unless you change it), with a 5.5-point spread, the typical size of a final South Carolina poll-average miss since 2018. Where early votes are coming from trims nothing off it by default: each point the early electorate leans more Democratic than at the same point in 2024, measured by county, counts for the weight you set under "Fine-tune the assumptions", and in 2022 and 2024, measured against the election two years earlier, that lean did not predict how the polls missed. The five counties only start to matter on election night.
- Scheduled jobs in the cloud pull a Wikipedia poll table every morning and afternoon and write to this page's data store, which updates open copies of the page without a reload. South Carolina's election-night results and early-vote counts are not read yet.
Track record: past races predicted from these five counties alone
| Race predicted | Baseline race | Actual | Model | Miss |
|---|
These misses flatter the model. The five counties were picked by searching for the set that best fits these same five races. Tested on races it had not seen, the same search missed by about 0.6 points. South Carolina also has no live results feed on this page yet: until one is added, it follows the polls on election night too.
What's different in 2026
The model is built on 2016–2024. Here is what could make this race break from those patterns, and how the model handles each.
| Factor | What it could do | How the model handles it |
|---|---|---|
| An appointed senator and a new nominee | Lindsey Graham, in the Senate since 2003, won June's Republican primary with 56.8% and died on July 11. Gov. Henry McMaster appointed his sister, Darline Graham, who was sworn in on July 14. She led the August 11 special Republican primary with 32.7% and won the August 25 runoff over Rep. Ralph Norman, 52.4% to 47.6%. Annie Andrews, a Charleston pediatrician, won June's Democratic primary with 61.5%. Mark Hackett (Constitution) and Kasie Whitener (Libertarian) are also on the ballot. | Before results, the forecast is the polling average less South Carolina's allowance. The starting point for every county is the 2024 presidential race (Trump +17.9), so each county's swing measures how much better or worse Andrews runs than Harris did there. |
| Few polls, most for one side or the other | Ten polls of Andrews against Graham have been published since mid-August. Most come from pollsters that work mainly for one party, or were paid for by a group backing a candidate; the page's average takes each pollster's latest poll from the last three weeks, three polls in all. | South Carolina's final poll averages, taken the way this page takes them, overstated the Democrat in three of the four statewide races since 2018 that had polls enough to score: by 7.3 points in the 2020 Senate race, 3.9 in the 2024 presidential race and 3.6 in the 2020 presidential race. They understated the Democrat by 5.8 in the 2018 governor's race. On average South Carolina's polls have leaned 2.3 points toward the Democrat; pooled with the other states' midterm-year misses, that gives the default of 1 point: an allowance of 1 point taken off Andrews. The spread around the forecast is 5.5 points, and the allowance is adjustable under "Fine-tune the assumptions." |
| Most votes are cast early | No-excuse early voting began in 2022. In 2024, 58% of voters voted early in person and 4% by mail. Early and mail votes went Trump +14.7, Election Day votes much more Republican, for a final Trump +17.9; in 2020 the early and mail votes went Biden +9.4. | The page's expected move from early votes to the final count in each bellwether comes from the 2020, 2022 and 2024 counts by vote type. The "How much more Republican Election Day votes will be" setting starts from South Carolina's record. |
| An open governor's race on the same ballot | Henry McMaster can't run again. Attorney General Alan Wilson is the Republican nominee for governor and state Rep. Jermaine Johnson the Democratic one. South Carolina still lets voters choose every candidate of one party with a single mark. | Voters who split their tickets show up in the Senate margins directly. In What-if mode, enter Senate margins, not governor's race margins. |
| Suburbs one way, small towns the other | South Carolina went from Trump +14.3 in 2016 to +11.7 in 2020 and +17.9 in 2024. Greenville, Beaufort and Charleston moved toward Democrats against the state (Greenville from 11 points more Republican than the state in 2016 to 4 in 2024); the small-town counties led by Colleton moved toward Republicans. | Pick a turnout pattern under "Fine-tune the assumptions" ("Like 2022" or "Like 2018"). The "2020 again" what-if replays each group's swing from the 2020 Senate race, Lindsey Graham against Jaime Harrison. |
- County returns 2016–2024: the South Carolina Election Commission's results site (each general election's final county detail file). The counties add up to the certified statewide count exactly.
- Candidates: the Election Commission's candidate tracking system (November 3, 2026 general election, U.S. Senate)
- County boundaries: us-atlas (Census cartographic boundaries)
- Early vote: not on this page yet. The Election Commission posts early-voting and absentee counts by county.
- Polling average: Wikipedia, 2026 United States Senate election in South Carolina (poll table)
- Election-night results: not read live on this page yet. The Election Commission's results site posts each county's count as it reports.
- In the news: headlines and links from Google News, GDELT and the state's own news outlets, read twice a day. Pollitrack never fetches or stores the articles themselves.